[Smoke]

[Big Bear]

To attract public money. And it's working.

[Ballerholic]

To attract public money. And it's working.

Money is on Tampa

[Big Bear]

Money is on Tampa

yep 45% of it. other 55% is on the Jays.


not that it matter that much. its not a national tv game or anything and the money was all over the Reds yesterday and they still won.

But this is a bad spot for Toronto. Not many hitters square up pitches against Helickson.

[secueritae]

yep 45% of it. other 55% is on the Jays.


not that it matter that much. its not a national tv game or anything and the money was all over the Reds yesterday and they still won.

But this is a bad spot for Toronto. Not many hitters square up pitches against Helickson.

Except for Bautista, hitting .467 off him (7-15) with 2 HRs

[Big Bear]

Except for Bautista, hitting .467 off him (7-15) with 2 HRs

i would probably pitch around him and take my chances with Edwin.

[joco]

yep 45% of it. other 55% is on the Jays.


not that it matter that much. its not a national tv game or anything and the money was all over the Reds yesterday and they still won.

But this is a bad spot for Toronto. Not many hitters square up pitches against Helickson.

my source shows the exact opposite. 45% on bjays 55% on tampa....

[Ballerholic]

I see tampa at 55% at vegasinsider and even tampa as favorites on scores and odds, even though they are 97% there

[King Mayan]

It's a trap smokey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Big Bear]

907	TOR	+105	-200	8.5	+121	+195	8.5	+100	-180	8	+120	-175	8.5	46%	3%	87%
908	TAM	-115	+175		-131	-220		-120	+160		-130	+155		54%	97%	13%

[Big Bear]

this just changed recently ... money pouring in on tampa as we speak.

[ticklz]

lolol 11-0 and public taking slumping Tampa...once again i will be on jays Ml and runline until they show me that they are capable of losing a game

[Louisvillekid1]

Tampa -1.5 +163 & parlay it with the PHI/SD u 6.5 -110...

All you need tonight

[ridims]

jays opened as dogs a couple days ago at home to the O's and they got the W. I took the +105 and doubled up easily.

you guys read into the line to much. pick the team you think wins and dont look back.

i wouldnt bet against a team as hot as the jays right now. predicting when they lose is not very smart but go ahead.

[Bluedragon]

lolol 11-0 and public taking slumping Tampa...once again i will be on jays Ml and runline until they show me that they are capable of losing a game

Ticklz, I forgot to mention yesterday I was going to the game, well, didn't forget, just didn't have time, woke up too late. 5-0 now for me, 6-1 for you. Let's continue that trend

[LT Profits]

Jays have never hit Hellickson well outside of Batista, he has eight starts against them since 2011 and had never allowed more than three earned runs.

[Grizzlies918]

jays opened as dogs a couple days ago at home to the O's and they got the W. I took the +105 and doubled up easily.

you guys read into the line to much. pick the team you think wins and dont look back.

i wouldnt bet against a team as hot as the jays right now. predicting when they lose is not very smart but go ahead.

I think Tampa wins, so I picked them.

[mynameismud]

12 in a row would be insanely sick.

[jamt31]

Hellick has done good against the Jays in his career but this 2013 Hellick is far from the Hellick in years past.

[Gus Fring]

TB easy. Hellboy owns the jays

[ridims]

I think Tampa wins, so I picked them.

good luck..

one of us will definately win

[joco]

TB easy. Hellboy owns the jays

the rays lost both hellickson starts against the rays this year...

[supernelly007]

ill be on the jays tonight. just think Tampa is one of the teams the jays have to catch up to, Jay are going to be playing lots of divisional rivals games they really have to win to stand a chance. seen Rogers pitch twice has great stuff.... good bowl pen and lastly ride the winning streak .......... lets go bjs +120 good luck tonight.

[CanuckG]

yep 45% of it. other 55% is on the Jays.


not that it matter that much. its not a national tv game or anything and the money was all over the Reds yesterday and they still won.



But this is a bad spot for Toronto. Not many hitters square up pitches against Helickson.

Those % mean nothing.

[ticklz]

the rays lost both hellickson starts against the rays this year...

interesting Stat. didnt know the Rays played the Rays this yr yet good to know

[joco]

u know what i meant smartass

[LT Profits]

Hellick has done good against the Jays in his career but this 2013 Hellick is far from the Hellick in years past.

He was just as good vs. Jays this year, allowed two runs and only four hits in eight innings before bullpen blew the lead.

[DEUCED]

Tampa -1.5 +163 & parlay it with the PHI/SD u 6.5 -110...

All you need tonight

Both lose....sorry.

[Big Bear]

Deuced are you related to the poster Deuce?

[OhMyEli]

Let me get this straight, you guys are going against a team with an 11 game winstreak on the back of a pitcher that has a 5.5ERA and a team 5-10 in their last 15 returning home from a road trip?



This is overanalyzing 101. True on paper Hellickson stacks up well, but if the plays on paper always cashed the books would be empty.

[Big Bear]

Let me get this straight, you guys are going against a team with an 11 game winstreak on the back of a pitcher that has a 5.5ERA and a team 5-10 in their last 15 returning home from a road trip?



This is overanalyzing 101. True on paper Hellickson stacks up well, but if the plays on paper always cashed the books would be empty.

Hell boy has won 3 out of his last 4 starts.

Hellickson has good stuff. He keeps hitters off balance. He is much better than Freddy Garcia

[You mad bro]

Game ends in a tie

[billysink]

The difference with Hellickson this year is that he is using a two seamer more and is using both the cutter and the change as out pitches.

He is down almost 2 MPH across the board on all five pitches and rarely gets past 100 pitches. I don't think he is very strong and may be a bit sore.

Unfortunately the Jays struggle badly against the change and cutter rarely making solid contact. They may keep it going but may have to get into the bullpen here to do it, as mentioned Helly ain't going to go more than 100, maybe 5 or 6 depending on how efficient he is.

[stevenash]

i would probably pitch around him and take my chances with Edwin.

Edwin isn't exactly horsecrap against Hellickson, he's 6 for 23 (.261) with a ding dong.

Then you have to face Adam Lind, who's having a career year, because of Joey Bats and Edwin in front of him. Lind's across the board numbers this year are rock-solid, .337 10-30, eye popping .402 OBA, and just as important hits Hellickson hard, 5 for 15, (.333) two of the five hits are roped doubles, 3 RBI's, 2 walks, which translates into a .412 OBA v. Hellickson.

After that tonight you got Arencebia, who also rakes Hellickson, 5 for 17 (.294) lifetime says so.
JP is one of the better hitting catchers in the AL, and has home run pop.

By the time you get to the soft spot of the Jay line up, the damage might already be done.

This line up should, operative word being should, torch Hellickson tongiht

Melky Cabrera LF
Jose Bautista RF
Edwin Encarnacion DH
Adam Lind 1B
Colby Rasmus CF
J.P. Arencibia C
Maicer Izturis 3B
Emilio Bonifacio 2B
Munenori Kawasaki SS
(Esmil Rogers P)

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GDP	missG
Edwin Encarnacion	24	23	6	2	0	1	1	1	2	.261	.292	.478	.770	0	0	0	0	0
Colby Rasmus	21	20	4	2	0	1	2	1	5	.200	.238	.450	.688	0	0	0	0	0
J.P. Arencibia	18	17	5	1	0	0	1	1	3	.294	.333	.353	.686	0	0	0	0	0
Jose Bautista	18	15	7	1	1	2	3	3	3	.467	.556	1.067	1.622	0	0	0	0	0
Adam Lind	17	15	5	2	0	0	3	2	4	.333	.412	.467	.878	0	0	0	0	0
Maicer Izturis	12	12	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	.167	.167	.167	.333	0	0	0	0	0
Melky Cabrera	8	8	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	.500	.500	.625	1.125	0	0	0	0	0
Rajai Davis	8	8	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	.125	.125	.125	.250	0	0	0	0	0
Munenori Kawasaki	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	.250	.400	.250	.650	0	0	0	0	0
Josh Thole	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
Total	133	124	35	9	1	4	11	9	24	.282	.331	.468	.799	0	0	0	0	0

Tampa Bay has never faced Rogers as a starter.
Rogers is having a decent year so far, 3.14 ERA and a 1.21 WH/IP ratio is solid, especially in the big bat division, but take those numbers with a little grain of salt, this is only Rogers 5th start this season, he's relieved in 27 games this year, so he's not a long distance guy, he should give the Jays six good innings.
So expect to see Brett Cecil, whose numbers in relief this season are outstanding, and maybe Loup and Delabar, who ain't exactly chopped liver.

On paper, and games are played on grass, not paper, I get that, but on paper, the logical play is to ride the Jays again.
The 'Jays are due to lose theory' have sunk a lot of bankrolls the past few days, no reason to fade them again tonight.

Jays or nothing is the play

[Big Bear]

is this a big play for you nashy ?