You can't compare the Pirates this year to last. Last year at this point, they were three games above .500. This year? They are eighteen games above .500. They never got to this point last year. They completely collapsed last year in July and ended up what? 79 - 83? I find it really hard to believe that they won't be able to finish past .500.
Will they collapse this year? I doubt it. Look at their starting rotation. AJ and Wandy, their two aces are on the DL and they are still winning games. The bullpen is incredible. Everything is working this year.