1. 06-07-13 05:02 PM #1
    Jago2008
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    Det. Tigers v. Clev. Indians 'Over' 8

    Both Verlander and Jimenez have struggled against these clubs respectively: Jimenez - 3-3 with a 4.37 ERA , and Verlander - 15-14 with a 4.68 ERA but probably what's more telling is the fact that both posted an abnormal WHIP above 2 this year in these matchups. Whether not that trend stays true, lineups suggest a propensity to stay in counts and have power.

    -A lot of good matchups for the Tigers this time around with C Branyan Pena starting for the woeful Avila - so we can almost guarantee no bunts resulting in double plays... Hunter, Cabrera, Fielder, Peralta all have good numbers against Jimenez. Miguel Cabrera has hit safely in 25 of his last 28 games against with 12 home runs and 35 rbis and an OPS of 1.200

    -As for Cleveland they have gone 7-3 against former Cy Youngs this year averaging over 6 runs in those victories. Brantley, Swisher, Bourn, Reynolds all have good numbers against Verlander - with the outlier being Giambi who has hit .167 against the former cy young.

    -When Jimenez struggles with command, i.e. starts batters in 1-0 counts, or furthermore 2-0 counts he's giving up a .500 BAA, and SLGA over .800- (although this rings true for most hitter counts, but particularly for Jimenez) accounting for most of the HRs he's given up on the year. He had a good outing this year in Comerica park, but in 2012 and years past he has struggled, falling behind in counts and posting an ERA of 5, but a somewhat respectable WHIP of 1.3.

    -I haven't liked to bet many 'overs' with Scherzer or Fister on the mound, but Verlander starts have gone 'over' the total in 8 of his last 12 starts.

    GL with your bets.
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  2. 06-07-13 05:09 PM #2
    Kermit
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    Funny that you made this thread as I just made a play a few minutes ago. This is the over that I have wanted to play all day and I kept dicking around and the juice got up to -125.


    06/07 06:03 PM Total $200.00 $160.00 Baseball MLB - Cleveland Indians @ Detroit TigersTotal O 8 -125 for Game

    Also played a small prop

    06/07 05:45 PM Future/Prop $5.00 $175.00 Baseball Props - Indians/Tigers - 3015 Grand Slam +3500 for First HR of the Game Will Be

    Last edited by Kermit; 06-07-13 at 05:15 PM. Reason: Spelled minutes "minuets" and I didn't want to look like a R-tard
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  3. 06-07-13 05:12 PM #3
    Jago2008
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    Yeah the total just jumped from -110 to -120. It did however come down from 8.5 un20 earlier. Just liked that whole number here at least at the best value.
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  4. 06-07-13 05:14 PM #4
    Kermit
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    I was debating playing the Box Score(H-R-E) over 27 for the slightly better juice(-115), but decided to just go with the Total instead.
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  5. 06-07-13 05:21 PM #5
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    I was debating playing the Box Score(H-R-E) over 27 for the slightly better juice(-115), but decided to just go with the Total instead.
    Not a bad option, I'd like to see what both teams fielding percentage is, but I also went with the total. Lets get this.

    Honestly IMHO this game is going to go over the total with ease, or have something like a 3-1 game to it, I don't see a middling or getting close to the number. I'm just siding with trends, matchups and previous history here. GL man.
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  6. 06-07-13 05:22 PM #6
    leetreaper
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    Already done!
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  7. 06-07-13 05:23 PM #7
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    Already done!
    What up Lee, nice to see we agree on this.
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  8. 06-07-13 05:23 PM #8
    2daBank
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    i played it once i saw Holbrook was behind the plate..
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  9. 06-07-13 05:26 PM #9
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    i played it once i saw Holbrook was behind the plate..
    Well said, and nice win on LAD last night.
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  10. 06-07-13 05:30 PM #10
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jago2008 View Post
    Not a bad option, I'd like to see what both teams fielding percentage is, but I also went with the total. Lets get this.

    Honestly IMHO this game is going to go over the total with ease, or have something like a 3-1 game to it, I don't see a middling or getting close to the number. I'm just siding with trends, matchups and previous history here. GL man.
    I don't usually play the Box Scores in hopes of getting errors, but more so instead when 2 good offenses are against each other.

    Sometimes you can middle the boxscore against the total like when a Total is set at 6.5, you can play the total over and the boxscore under say 23 or 24. I have middled this play around 4 or 5 times in the past and won both, and at worst only ate juice on one side if one would win and one would lose. This of course is a situational play and depends on various circumstances to decide if it is playable or not.
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  11. 06-07-13 05:36 PM #11
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jago2008 View Post
    What up Lee, nice to see we agree on this.
    Lets bring this bitch home!
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  12. 06-07-13 05:50 PM #12
    BigPete55
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    Jago, I got it at 8.5......what's your model suggesting, around 10 runs???
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  13. 06-07-13 06:20 PM #13
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigPete55 View Post
    Jago, I got it at 8.5......what's your model suggesting, around 10 runs???
    Sorry to answer you late Pete, regardless of my system, what I would suggest is to avoid the hook in any instance. If you see the market moving in your favor wait til' the line favors your selection, in this instance I definitely saw some early action on the 'under' but given matchup numbers this seemed favorable to wait out a selection after the line had moved to 8.
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  14. 06-07-13 06:41 PM #14
    Kermit
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    Well we got 1 so far. So much for my Grand Slam prop.
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  15. 06-07-13 06:47 PM #15
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    Well we got 1 so far. So much for my Grand Slam prop.
    Bases loaded, you still have a chance...
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  16. 06-07-13 06:57 PM #16
    leetreaper
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    Fat loser can't do squat obv...
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  17. 06-07-13 07:00 PM #17
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    Fat loser can't do squat obv...
    Haha with that said he takes away a double from Aviles (I'm talking about Dirks).... in any case I'll take a crooked number in the bottom of the 2nd, we just need to average that over 3 innings consecutively.
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  18. 06-07-13 07:09 PM #18
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jago2008 View Post
    Bases loaded, you still have a chance...
    No, it has to be the first home run.
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  19. 06-07-13 07:24 PM #19
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    No, it has to be the first home run.
    Interesting, I've had some throughout the game, what were the odds on that?

    Verlander is dealing.
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  20. 06-07-13 07:30 PM #20
    Kermit
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    Looks like we may need the Tigers to do this by themselves.
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  21. 06-07-13 07:32 PM #21
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jago2008 View Post
    Interesting, I've had some throughout the game, what were the odds on that?

    Verlander is dealing.
    35-1

    I hit this one the other night

    06/05 07:35 PM 1440880669- 1 Future/Prop Won $5.00 $200.00 Baseball Props - Diamondbacks/Cardinals - 3015 Grand Slam +4000 for First HR of the Game Will Be (Won)

    I started playing this last week. Been playing one or 2 a day.
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  22. 06-07-13 07:33 PM #22
    Tofudog
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    Its looking like the Tigers are going to have to get at least 7 for your bet to hit.. Not looking too bad right now though
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  23. 06-07-13 07:38 PM #23
    Kermit
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    Damn. Was hoping Cabrera was going to bust this one open.
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  24. 06-07-13 07:44 PM #24
    Kermit
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    Bases loaded. Injuns gotta get something out of this.
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  25. 06-07-13 07:44 PM #25
    leetreaper
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    loaded
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  26. 06-07-13 07:45 PM #26
    leetreaper
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    need at least 1-2 runs here to feel comfortable...
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  27. 06-07-13 07:45 PM #27
    leetreaper
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    puuuuuurfect
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  28. 06-07-13 07:48 PM #28
    Kermit
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    Nice
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  29. 06-07-13 07:49 PM #29
    Kermit
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    I was tempted to sprinkle a bit on 12+ at +300
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  30. 06-07-13 07:50 PM #30
    drfunkmaster
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    good job..
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  31. 06-07-13 08:03 PM #31
    Jago2008
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    Winner in the bottom of the 5th, have to love that. Hope many of you cashed
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  32. 06-07-13 08:05 PM #32
    Emancipator
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    Congrats to Kermit and anyone who had the Over.
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  33. 06-07-13 08:05 PM #33
    Kermit
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    Well as long as this doesn't get rain shortened, that is a wrap.
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  34. 06-07-13 08:06 PM #34
    Kermit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Emancipator View Post
    Congrats to Kermit and anyone who had the Over.
    The TC had it with a Nice Write Up.
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  35. 06-07-13 08:06 PM #35
    leetreaper
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    Last 2 me and you agreed - both winners
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