[2daBank]

sadly i see my guy NC is taking little break and since i mostly post in his or biffT threads figure ill start my own little spot..as title says will go from now till break as i personally hate the 1st 2 weeks after the break, hoping saying this now will keep me from burying myself during that time as i have in years past (actually skipped last yr finally, lesson learned i guess)..

if you know me ya know my time is somewhat limited this time of year, some days ill have much more time to discuss than others where im pulling 14 hr work days so as much as i like to be able to discuss, answer questions, and give reasoning behind my plays some days it simply wont be possible..been going decently w bases thus far, hopefully we can go on a nice little heater and make a little cash this next month or so as june and aug typically my best months so we shall see..

haters save your breath, i know you love me, and ya know i will verbally bash your brains in anyways since lucky for you i cant do physically over the net ... i dont suggest anyone blindly tail me anymore than bash me cause in the end it your money and im just another degen that loves to talk bout this thing we do, do your own research and decide for yourself...

gl everyone..

[2daBank]

mia/phi ov 7.5 +105 (1 to 1.05).. why hamels has been shit i dunno, most things suggest it doesnt make sense but fact is he been bad and even worse day/home, fish have seen him plenty and i think they can scratch at least 3 and run him by 6th in that bandbox..fighting phils bats are heating up and honestly if i can get + money on a low number in this bandbox in the daytime it gonna take better pitchers than these to scare me off..

oak/mil ov 9 +112 (1 to 1.12).. good chance you can get better number if you wait but i dont have time for that shit and more than comfortable here, the big issue is id like the roof opened and there slight chance of rain in mil so if i were u id call the hotline (i just dont have the time so rolling the dice)..love colon as that dude has been a beast since he started juicing! but now he has another suspension hanging him so not sure where his head be at for this 1 as i know he took it hard hurting the team last time(not enough to stop him apparently but hey gotta do what you gotta do, lol), in fairness so does that sorry fukk braun, not that i have prob with juicing but little pussies who get caught and punk commish bail them out irk me and i doubt it even phases braun..anyway galarodo another puzzling guy as could easily make a case that he is better than he has pitched, that said he isnt pitching well and cespedes is ripping the cover off the ball, crisp doing his thing and i just love this A's lineup..both pens been little taxed, id assume no way axford gets in the gm again which nice since he been nails.. if roof is closed you can almost assuredly get a 8.5 and i think at worst we see 4-4 at some point which gets the push for me W for u, lol..

[ItsMeMrMattE]

love that your starting a thread, hate that your starting off with totals. go where the good money is at, pickin winners and losers. GL to you tho. hope your first pick goes MIA 7 - PHI 1.

[Vinnie Paz]

Totals win or lose too man...a winners a winner

[Vinnie Paz]

Just something i came across...


Oakland Athletics ML (-106)

Pitchers: [Colon/Gallardo]

Colon blows Gallardo away according to my primary numbers, again I do not disclose exactly what those consist of, but Colon’s primary numbers are 3x better than Gallardo’s. Colon also has a variance of 1.74, which is among the best in the league and tells you that he comes to play every time he hits the mound. Gallardo’s variance is 3.14, Jon Garland is the only pitcher going today that has a higher variance than Gallardo. Bartolo doesn’t blow batter away by any means, but all of his meaningful secondary statistics are above average except for his swinging strike rate. Colon is also deadly accurate, with an amazing K/BB ratio of 10.5.. he’s only given up 4 walks in 70.1 innings!

Now, please try to hold your laughter while I reel off Gallardo’s statistics. Firstly, Gallardo has lost 1.3 MPH of velocity from last season (big red flag). His ability to get hitters to chase is a staggering 5.3% below the league average, at 24.6%, which makes total sense when you see that Gallardo is only throwing first pitch strike 53.3% of the time. That number is 6.9% below the league average. Gallardo has absolutely nothing going for him. There are very few pitching match-ups in which I would give Gallardo and the Brewers coin-flip odds against, maybe, MAYBE, against Wade LeBlanc and the Marlins.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Totals win or lose too man...a winners a winner

a winner is a winner. and if you can hit more of those than not by playing totals, then thats what you should do. for me tho, they are guess work. i dont understand how people can cap them. a team can win by 8 or win by 1, but its still a win. in totals none of that matters.

[2daBank]

love that your starting a thread, hate that your starting off with totals. go where the good money is at, pickin winners and losers. GL to you tho. hope your first pick goes MIA 7 - PHI 1.

ive always had pretty good success with mlb, nfl, cbb totals (nba a different story but really dont mess with nba much till playoffs anyways)..just personal preference i guess but if i had to guess i bet more totals than sides in mlb and nfl..

[2daBank]

a winner is a winner. and if you can hit more of those than not by playing totals, then thats what you should do. for me tho, they are guess work. i dont understand how people can cap them. a team can win by 8 or win by 1, but its still a win. in totals none of that matters.

i find totals actually easier to cap but again that just me..of coarse now inevitably i will miss them both, lol..

[2daBank]

Just something i came across...


Oakland Athletics ML (-106)

Pitchers: [Colon/Gallardo]

Colon blows Gallardo away according to my primary numbers, again I do not disclose exactly what those consist of, but Colon’s primary numbers are 3x better than Gallardo’s. Colon also has a variance of 1.74, which is among the best in the league and tells you that he comes to play every time he hits the mound. Gallardo’s variance is 3.14, Jon Garland is the only pitcher going today that has a higher variance than Gallardo. Bartolo doesn’t blow batter away by any means, but all of his meaningful secondary statistics are above average except for his swinging strike rate. Colon is also deadly accurate, with an amazing K/BB ratio of 10.5.. he’s only given up 4 walks in 70.1 innings!

Now, please try to hold your laughter while I reel off Gallardo’s statistics. Firstly, Gallardo has lost 1.3 MPH of velocity from last season (big red flag). His ability to get hitters to chase is a staggering 5.3% below the league average, at 24.6%, which makes total sense when you see that Gallardo is only throwing first pitch strike 53.3% of the time. That number is 6.9% below the league average. Gallardo has absolutely nothing going for him. There are very few pitching match-ups in which I would give Gallardo and the Brewers coin-flip odds against, maybe, MAYBE, against Wade LeBlanc and the Marlins.

you preaching to the choir bout oak to me bro, ya know ive bet them pretty much every day that last 2 weeks or so (since crisp and youngs returns) and obviously my account is much better for it....and i love colon even tho i know the reason he balling is cause of juice (personally dont have big problem with it, actually have done a cycle b4, good stuff!), that said i worry bout his mental state knowing he staring at another possible suspension, cant imagine that puts a guy in a good mind frame especially a guy like colon who does truly care (which why he went the juice route) i dunno what we gonna see but im kinda expecting not good..agree galarodo has lost something but think some of it is to do with fact he throwing more 2 seamer/sinkers for some reason? obviously hasnt worked for him but i still think he capable of turning it around, hopefully not today as both these reasons and fact best mil relievers been worked last 2 gms make me think we see some runs here..

honestly tho oak has been sooo undervalued going back to last season (take away the long trip after they had all those injuries in the laa marathon) that i really cant blame you for playing them, hell this be the 1st time im off the oaktown money train in some time...

[ItsMeMrMattE]

i find totals actually easier to cap but again that just me..of coarse now inevitably i will miss them both, lol..

if the inevitable was based on your picks we'd both be rich. you have good insight into your arguments for a pick, and if i was a totals player id be there with ya. how about i cross my fingers for MIA to score 8 and you cross your fingers for MIA to get the win.

[2daBank]

if the inevitable was based on your picks we'd both be rich. you have good insight into your arguments for a pick, and if i was a totals player id be there with ya. how about i cross my fingers for MIA to score 8 and you cross your fingers for MIA to get the win.

lol..i dont think mia is a bad play, sadly i doubt they both hit cause mia scoring 5 runs doesnt seem likely but never know.. fish 1st 5 maybe?

[2daBank]

cards gm pretty tough to cap, id think there absolutely no way rosenthal would pitch today, mojica maybe but doubtful imo, while i think kelly will be fine starting he hasnt been stretched in some time and last yr when he was starting he was pretty much only good for 6 inn at best..that leaves some salas, choate (for lefties), maybe maness but he threw 28 pitches yesterday so iffy whether he available, and most likely gonna see some Boggs who been fukkin horrible all yr up here and in triple a..miley mostly fastball/slider lefty so dont worry bout cards offense a ton like i do against soft tosser lefties and cards havnt lost b2b gms in well over a month! so you have a spot starter and a pen that i would think isnt gonna have their best available which would normally lead me to taking dbags but damn cards been tough and id like more plus vs a team that doesnt lose b2b..over was a option i really looked into and like but hate the ump as eddings calls a ungodly strike % and is also a bit of a homer..so lean dbags and over but few things i dont like about both

another thing to consider about cards is Yadi's bs suspension appeal is looming and whether it be heard and denied the next 2 days i would assume if it is not 1 of these gms they drop the appeal and he serves it now before the reds series..

[2daBank]

blow jays+112 (1 to 1.12)..anyone who knows me knows i fukkin hate ra dickhead and been fading him since middle of last yr so why the change of heart here? real simple, zito home/day splits are sick and ppl betting accordingly (prob get better line if wait), thing is i think they are a aberration considering throughout his career he if anything has been slightly worse during the day and not particularly better at home so i just dont think these splits are sustainable and will be fading until it hurts or a correction comes.. other bright spots is there a nice breeze going out in sf which ive always heard knucklers prefer as it helps the ball dance more (last dickey shelling there was strong wind in), ultimatley i think both pitchers are shit but zito getting too much respect for splits his career suggest are not sustainable and jays have the better bats (on paper anyway, lol).. give me the plus and let zito come back to reality and remember he isnt any better in the daytime!

[2daBank]

work calls...gotta go..hopefully have a chance to do the night gms (not sure)...gl everyone

[joco]

at home so far this year zito is 6-0 giving up 7 earned runs in 38 innings pitched...i cant go against that. im on the other side banker. bol

[2daBank]

at home so far this year zito is 6-0 giving up 7 earned runs in 38 innings pitched...i cant go against that. im on the other side banker. bol

He been nails 4sure. That kinda the point, don't think there any reason to believe that continues.. But dickey sux also so who knows.. At least 1 of us cash.

[No coincidences]

Good luck as always. I'll still be around to give my thoughts on stuff -- just taking a breather from actually making plays.

This is the place to be for good discussion though. Can guarantee that.

[No coincidences]

blow jays+112 (1 to 1.12)..anyone who knows me knows i fukkin hate ra dickhead and been fading him since middle of last yr so why the change of heart here? real simple, zito home/day splits are sick and ppl betting accordingly (prob get better line if wait), thing is i think they are a aberration considering throughout his career he if anything has been slightly worse during the day and not particularly better at home so i just dont think these splits are sustainable and will be fading until it hurts or a correction comes.. other bright spots is there a nice breeze going out in sf which ive always heard knucklers prefer as it helps the ball dance more (last dickey shelling there was strong wind in), ultimatley i think both pitchers are shit but zito getting too much respect for splits his career suggest are not sustainable and jays have the better bats (on paper anyway, lol).. give me the plus and let zito come back to reality and remember he isnt any better in the daytime!

I like this play a lot. Think Dickey will be more comfortable back in an NL park. Will help his frame of mind. Plus, Zito is far beyond due for a bad outing at home. The line opening at a virtual PK says quite a bit to me.

I also think Pittsburgh, Cleveland and even the White Sox are good plus money considerations this afternoon.

[blackeyeshamus]

awesome.
thanks, banker.
good luck!

[2daBank]

I like this play a lot. Think Dickey will be more comfortable back in an NL park. Will help his frame of mind. Plus, Zito is far beyond due for a bad outing at home. The line opening at a virtual PK says quite a bit to me.

I also think Pittsburgh, Cleveland and even the White Sox are good plus money considerations this afternoon.

Glad u still be around. I considered pit but really just didnt have the time to get far into. No interst in even looking at Cws garbage asses, not a big fan of trying to predict end of streaks..

[jinxpro1313]

Good shit bank.
I'm on the jays today.. can't get my home team figured out seems like they lose every game I take em.
Gl n good thread

[R.P. McMurphy]

Any thoughts on the total in Frisco game Bank? I'm leaning ov with these 2 on the mound on a cool afternoon with a slight wind blowing out. Should be a lot of hanging junk today for guys to rip on!

[Sixla]

Glad u started the thread Bank, i've been enjoyin NC's thread and your input. Hopefully we can all contribute to making the green! GL everyone

[BigPete55]

Should have known that over was outta reach in the Phillies game.....these teams fkn blow!!! Oh well, let's shake that off....bring the rest in

[BigPete55]

Fat ass 125 Million Dollar Shitpants Howard had bases loaded....way to earn your pay....fkn joke!

[2daBank]

Any thoughts on the total in Frisco game Bank? I'm leaning ov with these 2 on the mound on a cool afternoon with a slight wind blowing out. Should be a lot of hanging junk today for guys to rip on!

Sorry bro havnt had much time today. When I looked at that gm it felt like they were begging me to play the over and seeing how I liked a side it was a easy pass cause hate playing side and total in same gm for the most part(hard enough to get 1 right let alone 2, lol).

[2daBank]

Looks like I'm gonna start thread w 2 overs that have a 5 spot hung in 1 inning and both go under, ouch. Lol

[fitguy67]

the birth of this thread is the silver lining behind NC's break from picking

interesting little debate about relative merits of totals-bets vs moneyline bets...

i have thought a lot about WHAT markets (sports) and what submarkets (type of bets within that sport) are best from both a performance (EV and variance) and "sanity" (the likelihood of usually-late-in-the-game-frivolous-scoring frustrations that put expensive appliances at risk and make it hard to sleep) perspective...here's the gist of it

My advice...stick to NHL and MLB. Bet home dogs, occasional big dogs, and don't back more than small favs. Avoid totals for right now.

Element,

I'm with you 100% that a ML-focused program of betting on professional sports events with a clear victor (aka. NHL and MLB) is all you really need to succeed in this game...

...and to succeed with much less angush--related to spreads and totals, in which your bets are VERY often killed by late-in-the-game "meaningless" [therefore, all the more frustrating] events that have nothing to do with the game's win-loss result.

You can count (and cap) based on the assumption that teams try to WIN...you simply CAN NOT count (so you shouldn't cap) based on team's commitment to "win by" or "come within" a certain margin.

Totals are less objectionable...because you can use models to determine reads on the centre and spread (ie. mean & std. deviation) of each team's historical scoring performance to quantitatively assign value to a book's line, relative to your model...however, these sort of bets still suffer from the uncappable implications of "questionable effort once the game's result is by-and-large decided". So totals are also prone to fail because of meaningless usually-late-in-the-game weird shit.

______________

The implication is that ML bets on NHL and MLB should be the staple of a bettor's "diet" ...but Totals in these two sports suffer much less from questionable-motivation late-game weird shit problems simply because scoring is so much more difficult to accomplish in these two sports than in Basketball and Football where points come in bunches...so they'll be the cause of much less variance from the quantified "centre" of the total-points distribution you used to identify the value of a bet.

So NHL and MLB, focusing on ML-bets, but not ruling out Totals-related bets when value presents itself.

...Anyhow, looking forward to the MLB value-grind...

in a nutshell

*NHL and MLB best markets of major yankee-doodle sports
*ML is the "bread and butter" bet
*O/U-betting in the right hands (actually "minds") can also be a good betting vehicle
*even in baseball spreads are to be avoided (apart from using the -1.5 to fashion a -1RL to cheapen a heavy fave...this is still actually a ML-bet...just one with an escape clause for both you and the book)
___________
would appreciate comments from u really-into-baseball guyz
how many of you share my hatred of Basketball and Football spreads and totals...
"when points can come in bunches...your askin' for bag lunches"

[PAULYPOKER]

Bank!!


I'm on Reds RL @ +130...............

[2daBank]

Bank!!


I'm on Reds RL @ +130...............

havnt had a chance to look at that gm but will shortly..gl pauly

[2daBank]

the birth of this thread is the silver lining behind NC's break from picking

interesting little debate about relative merits of totals-bets vs moneyline bets...

i have thought a lot about WHAT markets (sports) and what submarkets (type of bets within that sport) are best from both a performance (EV and variance) and "sanity" (the likelihood of usually-late-in-the-game-frivolous-scoring frustrations that put expensive appliances at risk and make it hard to sleep) perspective...here's the gist of it





in a nutshell

*NHL and MLB best markets of major yankee-doodle sports
*ML is the "bread and butter" bet
*O/U-betting in the right hands (actually "minds") can also be a good betting vehicle
*even in baseball spreads are to be avoided (apart from using the -1.5 to fashion a -1RL to cheapen a heavy fave...this is still actually a ML-bet...just one with an escape clause for both you and the book)
___________
would appreciate comments from u really-into-baseball guyz
how many of you share my hatred of Basketball and Football spreads and totals...
"when points can come in bunches...your askin' for bag lunches"

ive always felt like ncaa hoops was one of my stronger sports, nba i have no use for until playoffs then it seems beatable (heat after a loss anyone ), nfl is a crapshoot imo some years im pretty good some i stink up the joint (dont care what the kiddies come here saying every year about being a nfl god, ive been there and been knocked off my high horse enough to know better).. like i said earlier when i mentioned i liked totals prob little more than sides id inevitably miss the totals today, lol..still like totals long haul cause although im not computer literate enough for a "model" i do have a way of capping them that works for me and feels more numbers pure i guess, sure there factors that happen with totals that cant be accounted for but honestly that goes for every baseball gm, side, totals, whatever. to me it just about playing the ones that add up and hoping your math right more than wrong which i trust it generally is (at times anyways, lol)...

[ShogunRua]

Nice to see you started your own thread. Always enjoyed your insight.

Thoughts on Boston tonight? Seems rather square, but Ogando is just coming off the DL and I don't see him faring too well tonight against the hot Boston bats. I hate fading teams that took a shellacking the night before, but not sure I can pass up on the soft price. Hate betting against my Rangers too.

Anyways, good luck with the thread. Your analysis is always appreciated.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Wish I had just taken Jays instead of the ov figured on a nice cool day Dikkface wouldn't get much movement with the knuckler. At work and not watching but see he is throwing a 1 hitter and SF bats swatting at flies.

[Marooner]

Good luck as always. I'll still be around to give my thoughts on stuff -- just taking a breather from actually making plays.

This is the place to be for good discussion though. Can guarantee that.

give your thoughts to the garbage can. did you look into the effects of vitamin d deficiency? you are either retarded or something is wrong with your lifestyle. you cannot post 1000 times a day and have any sense of the real world. seek help.

[ShogunRua]

Wish I had just taken Jays instead of the ov figured on a nice cool day Dikkface wouldn't get much movement with the knuckler. At work and not watching but see he is throwing a 1 hitter and SF bats swatting at flies.

I had the over too. All the times I backed Dickshlt (and lost) thinking he'd throw a decent game and he waits till I take the over to throw a gem.