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Padres v. Dbacks 'OVER' 9
Last night I posted a play on the 'under' given the trends and historical background of Stults and McCarthy according to their split stats in past matchups against the current lineups.
In this matchup I like the over because we have two hard throwing pitchers, one of which in Wade Miley who has struggled against the Padre lineup, he's 1-3 with a 6.28 ERA with 13 walks and 18 strikeouts against them with the last 3 matchups going 'over' the total. Cashner is also a hard throwing righty but has averaged almost 2 ER higher, with a 1.31 WHIP (not bad but higher) on the road (compared to 2.76 ERA, and .86 WHIP at home).
Carlos Quentin was questionable for Fridays matchup but played, and he will also be in the lineup tonight, his bat give the Padres lineup more firepower - whether that is saying anything, his presence helps Chase Headley. Padre offense has averaged 5.9 runs in the last 8-10 games played @ chase field.
Additionally Paul Goldschmidt will continue his tear, and I expect to see the Dbacks offense to get on track - relatively tonight. Last night they were held scoreless against lefty Eric Stults until they broke out in the bottom of the 7th scoring 5 runs. I expect to see some offense like that again tonight, but before the 7th inning, and bodes well for a higher percentage of a 'crooked number' being posted in any given inning.
At a total of 9 I see good value on the 'Over' here with the temperature at 94 degrees and the roof open: (adding value to the over) over 700 games when the roof was closed the average total score was 9.27 runs, while the average jumped to 10.44 with the retractable roof open.
GL with your bets.
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Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy
