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Chalky White's - Chalk of the Night!
Chalky White ain't nothin but a punk bitch.
My bad, Chalk, you know I'm just playin.
Chalky gets in touch with me and tells me which 'chalky' plays he wants to endorse and have me put out there on the inter-web-tubes, since you know, he doesn't know how to use a computer and whatnot. Or know they exist... Whatever.
Tonight's plays are twofold.
PLAY NUMBER ONE
Red Sox ML (-210 @ BetOnline)
Firstly, not much of a surprise here, the BoSox hosting the lowly Twins. ButtHolz vs. SportsGoggles Worley. A number of reasons for this one, firstly, do you know how bad kids get beat up for wearing sports goggles? Clearly this kid knows he's getting beat up before, during AND after the game because of it, but what can he do? It's not like he can afford vision surgery, he plays for the Twins!
The Red Sox are coming off of a sweep at the hands of the Rangers, happy to be home, and with Clay pitching with a chip on his shoulder due to the 'cheating' allegations thrown at him after his last start. The Sox want to break that losing streak and this is a perfect place for a chalky play.
Some tend to freak out about baseball games with this much juice but the thing is, compare this to another sport. There is about as much difference in skill (accounting for the pitching matchup as well) as there was between the Heat and Bucks, and how much juice would you have to lay on the Heat moneyline? How much juice would you have to lay in college football for the Crimson Tide playing against Arkansas straight up?
In relation, this moneyline is pretty affordable at prices hovering around -200.
PLAY NUMBER TWO
St. Louis Blues Puckline +1.5 (-275 @ BetOnline)
Chalky thinks the Kings will be singing the Blues when the final horn sounds, and even if they're not, it'll be due to sweating out a tight, one goal game. The scores so far in this series have been 2-1, 2-1, and 1-0. The + Puckline has hit in each matchup so far, and these teams have been closely matched.
That being said, the Blues have 'outplayed' the Kings for around 2/3 of total icetime in this series so far when you look at shots, physical hits, and scoring opportunities and appear to have the upper hand despite losing the last game. The Blues outshot the Kings in Games 1 & 3, and were only outshot by 4 in Game 2. The bigger element to consider is 'scoring opportunities'. The Blues have had NUMEROUS open net scoring opportunities, outnumbering the Kings opportunities almost 2 to 1. Similar to looking at Sabermetrics in baseball with statistics like BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) which measures the likelyhood of effort vs. results and shows you trends on when a player seems to be executing but not getting the intended result (thus indicating a turnaround is likely), I believe the Blues have a high probability of turning more of these opportunities into goals as the series goes along, dumb luck has a propensity to balance out over the course of a multiple game series.
Elliot has been outstanding and I believe the line for this game is an example of a Vegas line simply looking to split bets down the middle, I believe the juice is too high on the Kings and there is value on the Blues.
The moneyline is definitely worth an investment but since this is Chalky's thread and the pick needs to have some healthy chalk, going with the Puckline. Going to invest some on the puckline itself as well as include it in a couple parlays.
Look, I'm just the messenger so take it up with Chalky if you disagree with these picks. Good luck, and don't piss off Chalky.
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Originally Posted by GimpedMaster
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