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Anybody use this formula for capping pitchers?
Strike outs per 9 innings – Strikeouts/Innings pitched *9 (Dominance)
Strikeout to Walk ratio – Strikeouts/walks (Control)
Home Runs allowed per 9 innings – Home runs allowed/Innings pitched *9 (Home run factor.)
After we get these numbers then we assign a value to determine how they will affect the ranking. The value that I use comes from the book “Baseball Forecaster” by Ron Shandler. The calculation for the pitcher ranking is as follows:
Strikeouts/9 innings (Dominance) *6
+
Strikeout/walk Ratio (Control) * 21
-
Home Runs allowed/9 innings * 30
=
Pitcher ranking Let’s look at an example:
Arizona (Brandon Webb) -115
San Diego (Justin Germano) +105
Stats:
Brandon Webb – 134 k’s, 53 walks, 9 home runs, 150.67 IP.
Justin Germano – 41 k’s, 20 walks, 9 home runs, 81.33 IP.
Score
Brandon Webb
Strikeouts per 9 innings– 134/150.67 *9 = 8.00
Strikeout to walk ratio – 134/53 = 2.53
Home runs per 9 innings – 9/150.67 *9 = .54
Dominance – 8.00 * 6 = 48.0
Control – 2.53 * 21 = 53.1
HR factor – 0.54 * 30 = 16.1
Total Score - 48+ 53.1 - 16.1 = 85.0
Justin Germano
Strikeouts per 9 innings– 41/81.33 *9 = 4.54
Strikeout to walk ratio – 41/20 = 2.05
Home runs per 9 innings – 9/81.33 *9 = 1.00
Dominance – 4.54 * 6 = 27.2
Control – 2.05 * 21 = 43.1
HR factor – 1.00 * 30 = 30.0
Total Score – 27.2 + 43.1 - 30.0 = 40.3
Comparing the scores of each pitcher you will see that Webb is much more dominant then Germano despite the fact that their ERA’s are not that much different. Since the line on this game is only Arizona -115 this would indicate that there may be value on the side of Arizona. Of course there are many other factors to consider before placing a wager like bullpen, offense, how the teams have been playing, etc. but this can be a good place to start.
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