[Nickelicious]

I've posted three Morrison Twists in the past month: The first two netted 73 units, but the third one imploded on day one and I abandoned it after losing 25 units. I wish I hadn't, since I did pursue the C bet on the White Sox and won back about 14 units. Since then I have had some solid days in baseball, winning consistently with unofficial Morrison plays in September. On Monday, there are 3 more unofficial Morrison plays set to launch, and like my previous Twists, I am looking to win at least 5 times within 3 plays, netting thirty $50 units in the process.

Unofficial JM Plays:
San Diego vs. Arizona
Houston at Cincinnati
Colorado at S.F. Giants

These are all pretty evenly matched teams, so it makes it even harder to find an edge in these series. One thing I am counting on is that none of the six teams will sweep their opponent. Or at least only one might get a sweep (Houston or San Diego seem like the best bets there).

San Diego vs. Arizona: This is the one series I am playing straight; chasing the Padres until they win one. San Diego is hot and Arizona is not. San Diego is home. San Diego has demonstrated a burning desire to not finish last in the NL West, and now they have a 3-game lead on the D'Backs that they surely don't want to relinquish. Arizona has a clear-cut pitching advantage in game 2. If the Padres win game 1, I'll jump on the D'Backs for game 2. If the Padres lose game one, I'll keep riding them through game 3.

Houston at Cincinnati: The Reds were rolling for a couple weeks before they lost 6 of 7 on the road. They are coming back home to face Houston, who have been playing great ball lately and seem to be in a good frame of mind. The Astros have Wandy and Oswalt on the mound in the first 2 games. I'm counting on them to win one of those, even though they face white-hot Branson Arroyo in game 1. This first game promises to be a pitching duel, and I'll put some $$$ on the under as well as on Houston.

Colorado at San Francisco: This is where the Twist comes into play in a big way. Unlike the four teams mentioned above, these guys really have something to play for. Colorado is the play, but the Giants are in a desperation situation, nearly out of the wild card race and needing a sweep against the Rockies to really get serious about the playoff race. They have their three aces on the mound in this series and they are at home, where they have been lights out all year, but shaky (2-4) on this particular homestand.

With 3 quality pitchers on the hill and their backs against the wall, I am betting against the system play on the first game of this series. Lincecum is pitching in game one and he has been money this season, even more so than his team mate/Cy Young candidate Matt Cain.

My Bets for Monday:
$350 to win 380 on San Diego ML -150 ($150) and RL +140 ($200)
$330 to win 275 on Houston ML -120
$370 to win 270 on San Francisco ML -180 (270) and RL +120 (100)

Unlike previous Twists, I don't see a good parlay to augment these picks, but I will hedge my bets with a counterplay parlay and jump on the Under in the Astros game.

Other Twists on the Twist:
$50 to win 232 on Colorado ML and Cincinnati ML
$330 to win 300 on Hou/Cin Under 7.5

For better or worse, the dice have been rolled!

[IcE]

BOL

[VegasPlayer]

Nice logic here, but I don't know if Lincecum is 100%. They really needed him to go last Thursday and he couldn't. Result as you stated 2-4 on the current homestand. I think that's the game that should be pointed to if they don't make it in rather than the extra inning slam loss in Denver a couple weeks ago. Good luck and let's hope Timmy is 100% today. If not those Col bats are gonna hurt em pretty bad.

[dukipl]

San Diego is hot and Arizona is not ... good luck with the twist plays

[jkernea]

go big or go home!...i'm tailing you....GL!

[Nickelicious]

Nice logic here, but I don't know if Lincecum is 100%. They really needed him to go last Thursday and he couldn't. Result as you stated 2-4 on the current homestand. I think that's the game that should be pointed to if they don't make it in rather than the extra inning slam loss in Denver a couple weeks ago. Good luck and let's hope Timmy is 100% today. If not those Col bats are gonna hurt em pretty bad.

Yes, I am counting on catcher Eli Whiteside being totally honest when he said that Tim's Saturday bullpen session was "Just like any other bullpen session he's thrown in the past. He looked good to me."

Colorado will be just as anxious to eliminate the Giants as the Giants are to catch the Rockies. Should be a great series!

[VegasPlayer]

Yes, I am counting on catcher Eli Whiteside being totally honest when he said that Tim's Saturday bullpen session was "Just like any other bullpen session he's thrown in the past. He looked good to me."

Colorado will be just as anxious to eliminate the Giants as the Giants are to catch the Rockies. Should be a great series!

Nice call Nick. Lincecum was lights out and the Giant bats came alive. I cashed big on this one.

[Nickelicious]

My Bets for Monday:
$350 to win 380 on San Diego ML -150 ($150) and RL +140 ($200) / loser -$350
$330 to win 275 on Houston ML -120 / loser -$330
$370 to win 270 on San Francisco ML -180(270) and RL +120 (100) / WINNER +$270

Other Twists on the Twist:
$50 to win 232 on Colorado ML and Cincinnati ML / loser -$50
$330 to win 300 on Hou/Cin Under 7.5 / WINNER +$330

Wow, what a great night!

"Huh?" you say? "How can it be a great night when you lose almost 3 units on the night?"

Okay, I lost $130 on tonight's wagers overall, but more importantly I won the counterbet on my selected system play (S.F.) and I won my "Twist on the Twist" Under 7.5 bet. Yeah, sure, I would have preferred to win the Houston and San Diego plays, too, because that would have opened more options in the next two days. But I was planning on going at least two-deep with those chases anyway, so I feel good about where I am.

You see, most Morrison system players lost all 3 A bets tonight and are going to be deep in the hole when they bet on the B bets tomorrow. Because of the Twist, I only lost two of three A bets, and I won that nifty under as well, so I'm basically breaking even right now. And now I can take advantage of those luscious B bets and--if necessary--C bets, and I will easily make my goal of 30 units in 3 days.

As always, I will be looking to take advantage of the ML/RL odds for my system plays. And given tonight's results, I will tend to be a bit aggressive on these B bets.

For anyone who is confused by my strategies, let me put it this way: Tuesday is the day! And if Tuesday is only a partial winner, Wednesday is the day! I believe I can win 35+ units in the next two days! If you believe me, tail me. But if you lose your fukkin' ass, you are a stupid shit for tailing me without conducting the proper due diligence and confirming your own risk!

My Bets for Tuesday:
$860 to win 600 on Houston ML -165 ($660) and RL EV ($200)
$600 to win 738 on San Diego ML +123
$900 to win 800 on Colorado ML -130 ($650) and RL +120 ($250)

These bets seem pretty solid to me, despite Dan Haren pitching for the D'Backs and Barry Zito going for the Giants. So I'm going to throw in small parlays on my two most likely winners and on a sweep.

Other Twists on the Twist:
$50 to win 145 on Rockies ML and Padres ML
$60 to win 345 on Rockies ML, Padres ML, Astros ML

For best or worse the dice have been rolled!

[dukipl]

Nick are u playing Detroit Tigers today? they are a JM play as well.

[BlueJays]

Man, that was hurtful! Just when I chose to bet on unofficial plays, they all lost!

[Nickelicious]

Nick are u playing Detroit Tigers today? they are a JM play as well.

Yes, I'm playing Detroit today. On the surface, this is a solid play, though the pitching match-ups aren't the most attractive for Detroit. Washburn has a bum knee, Eddie Bonine was a minor-league call up, and Greinke goes for the Royals in game 3.

Still, the Tigers should win this play in the first two games, but if the Royals win 5 straight against them and take this to a C bet, I'm not betting against Greinke! I am betting an average unofficial A bet today (1.5 unit risk) and not doubling up if it goes to a B bet (just betting 2 units or so if the B bet happens).

[MJT1212]

I'm debating on getting back in the game just to tail you today. I've been following the Morrison picks through my email for a while and have missed out on some killer C bets and I have just discovered your thread today concerning the "twist". Do you advise tailing you all the way or I guess the question is "How confident are you on your "Twists on the Twist"?"

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

[brendan]

BOL Nick!

[Nickelicious]

I'm debating on getting back in the game just to tail you today. I've been following the Morrison picks through my email for a while and have missed out on some killer C bets and I have just discovered your thread today concerning the "twist". Do you advise tailing you all the way or I guess the question is "How confident are you on your "Twists on the Twist"?"

The Twists on the Twists are just an attempt to add candy to the bankroll. They are nothing more than hunches with a dash of reasonable probability tossed in. You can see I am risking very little by playing them.

Ideally, anyone tailing me would be doing so from day one, but today is still a good day to catch the train. But of course, you have to vet these things out for yourself, too. It entirely possible for me to lose money in the next two days, but I can afford to lose anything I bet. I hate losing, but gambling doesn't come without a price tag.

Good luck with your decisions! But if you follow, use wise money management and absolutely be prepared for C bets, because they will come!

[jcygts6]

gl

[dimon]

Yes, I'm playing Detroit today. On the surface, this is a solid play, though the pitching match-ups aren't the most attractive for Detroit. Washburn has a bum knee, Eddie Bonine was a minor-league call up, and Greinke goes for the Royals in game 3. Still, the Tigers should win this play in the first two games, but if the Royals win 5 straight against them and take this to a C bet, I'm not betting against Greinke! I am betting an average unofficial A bet today (1.5 unit risk) and not doubling up if it goes to a B bet (just betting 2 units or so if the B bet happens).

Well I think that the KC is a way to go...it is a definitely a value play being such a big underdog

[MJT1212]

Thanks for the insightful reply, exactly what i was looking for! BOL!

[MJT1212]

I just booked...

Houston Astros -154
San Diego Padres +1½
Colorado Rockies -140

Lets get it...

[BlueJays]

Looks like a B bet on DET is imminent! These guys are supposed to go to playoffs?

[johncrud]

what a load of crud..

we will probably see all four going to C...

[jkernea]

Houston blew the lead for us!...let's hit the night games and do this again tomorrow!

GL!

[Nickelicious]

My Bets for Tuesday:
$860 to win 600 on Houston ML -165 ($660) and RL EV ($200)
$600 to win 738 on San Diego ML +123
$900 to win 800 on Colorado ML -130 ($650) and RL +120 ($250)

Other Twists on the Twist:
$50 to win 145 on Rockies ML and Padres ML
$60 to win 345 on Rockies ML, Padres ML, Astros ML

Tuesday's results: -$2470
Twist results: -$2600

Well that was one hellish night. Being down $2,600 is not my idea of a sweet Twist!

But scared money never wins money. I've lost more money in one night than this in the past and won a lot more as well. But no system player, JM system or not, likes to face this kind of decision: Three C bets in a 3-game chase in one day. It seems almost guaranteed that one of these C bets will lose... but which one? Or could it be two?

But there is a silver lining. Our best bet of the day tomorrow takes place in the afternoon. The Padres have Edward Mujica on the hill, a solid converted reliever who won't go more than 5 innings, but San Diego's bullpen has been rock solid lately and can easily cover 4 innings. Doug Davis is on the mound for the D'Backs, and he's been pretty good but his ERA has been going up for 6 games and he imploded against the Brewers in his last start (3 innings, 5 runs).

As for the other two C bets, I don't care for them much, especially Houston. But Colorado does have a decent chance to beat the Giants, if Matt Cain continues his average performance over the past few games. Jorge De La Rosa has been terrific lately for the Rockies, and Colorado is in genuine danger of blowing their wild card spot if they lose this game.

So, the Twist limps on with hour-to-hour betting. If you are tailing me, shame on you, but this is what I plan to do:

Wednesday Afternoon (3:35 PM ET) Bets:
$1,100 to win 1,000 on San Diego ML -110
$400 to win 720 on San Diego RL -1.5 +180

If this bet wins on both the ML and RL, I'll still be down $880 for the Twist and bet a small wager on the Reds (not the Astros) at 7:10 PM ET for the second play. If the Padres lose either the ML or the RL, I'll skip the Reds game altogether.

Which would leave the 10:15 PM ET C bet on the Colorado Rockies. If the Padres lose their game, I will be down over $4,000 already and probably just call it a day. I've hit 5 over/unders in a row, so my roll isn't hurting as much as it appears, but we have to draw the line somewhere. But if the Padres win and I'm only down $880 or $2,000, then I could have as much as $3,000 riding on the Rockies ML +120, trying to win my original profit.

In any case, I won't lose more than about four grand in this mess, which isn't that big a deal when you consider the original target was $1,500 (essentially losing one bet with a ML of -270, the kind of heartbreak that happens every day).

Money is proportional. The first two Twists won me almost $4,000. The third one cost me about $500. If this one gets me for four grand, then that's life. And remember, what I'm doing here is purely unofficial on Morrison's record, since the official MLB betting system ended two weeks ago.

I will update this thread after the Padres game tomorrow.

[MJT1212]

Why isn't morrison emailing about these C bets, he's trying to lay low b/c 3 C bets and make up some BULLSHIT once some lose and take the credit for the wins...WHAT a day I picked to start tailing Morrison...3 B bets seems good right...NOOOOOOOOOO Not when I Bet

[million2one]

Why isn't morrison emailing about these C bets, he's trying to lay low b/c 3 C bets and make up some BULLSHIT once some lose and take the credit for the wins...WHAT a day I picked to start tailing Morrison...3 B bets seems good right...NOOOOOOOOOO Not when I Bet

It's September and all these plays are unofficial
The system officially ended at the end of August.

[million2one]

Good luck today Nick,

Just wondering if you are playing Detroit in any way. Thanks

[Nickelicious]

Wednesday Afternoon (3:35 PM ET) Bets:
$1,100 to win 1,000 on San Diego ML -110 / WINNER +$1,000
$400 to win 720 on San Diego RL -1.5 +180 / loser -$400

As of Tuesday - Twist results: -$2600
As of Wednesday Afternoon: -$2000

San Diego pulled out a nice win, though it would've been much nicer to cover the runline as well. Still, who am I to whine about about breaking the losing streak?

As I said before, without a sweep of the ML and RL by the Padres, I've got no side on the Astros/Reds game (I do have a bit on the over: http://www.sbrpicks.com/contest/203/)

So I'm losing $2,000 on this Twist so far. But that's not the $4,000 I was worried about last night. Therefore, I'm rolling with Colorado to beat Matt Cain on the west coast tonight.

Wednesday evening bet:
$2,000 to win 2,200 on Colorado ML +110

With so much riding on that game, and still wanting to pull off a solid profit in these three harrowing days, I'm placing some parlays to partially hedge my bet and leverage it at the same time. It will certainly help if the Giants and Rocks go over 7.5.

Wednesday evening parlays:
$100 to win 320 on Colorado ML and Over 7.5
$100 to win 1076 on Colorado ML, Over 7.5 and Seattle RL +180

For better or worse, the dice have been rolled!

[Nickelicious]

As of Tuesday - Twist results: -$2600
As of Wednesday Afternoon: -$2000

Wednesday evening bet:
$2,000 to win 2,200 on Colorado ML +110 / WINNER +$2,200

Wednesday evening parlays:
$100 to win 320 on Colorado ML and Over 7.5
$100 to win 1076 on Colorado ML, Over 7.5 and Seattle RL +180

Colorado holds off the Giants for a nice win and we just miss winning our parlays. Overall, this was not a great Twist, since all three C bets won and we should have made a lot of money. But my usual strategy is to reduce risk on the C bet to just break even on the play, so our final results are about what I would expect on one normal system play.

Twist results: 0

Missed getting my original 30 unit goal by one run on the over/under tonight!

[Nickelicious]

I did pick up a couple units on that Detroit B Bet winner, at least! Good thing they didn't go to the C bet, because I wouldn't have bet against Greinke tomorrow!