1. 04-08-13 04:30 PM #1
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Samrock's 2013 RL Chase System(AKA Stifler 2.0)

    Upon recommendation from ColdBeerHere(props) and permission from Stifler(a thousand thanks), I will be using this thread to keep track of Stifler's Chase system's performance on the RL and posting plays for those who are interested.

    For those of you who bet "to win" 1 unit, this will save you money on your chases. Significant money.
    For those of you who bet a certain amount per game and ignore unit size, this could turn out to be very profitable.

    USE THIS SYSTEM AT YOUR OWN RISK. I have not backtested Stifler's stats in prior years, and I don't plan to. This thread is solely for the purpose of monitoring how Stifler's system does on the RL. If you choose to use these bets instead of or in addition to Stifler's plays, please do so at your own risk. I cannot yet vouch for the efficacy of this system. We will see how things pan out in 2013.

    The Stifler Chase System can be found here:

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...se-2013-a.html

    If you haven't done so already, please make sure you fully understand Stifler's system before betting. The idea here is simple- all of Stifler's bets are ML bets. When the team you are betting on wins, the series is over. With this system, the series is only over if the team covers the RL. If they do not, the chase proceeds until they do. Since this is pretty much a repeat of Stifler's system, each series will be a 4-game chase.

    Lines will be based on the book I use, which is 5Dimes.

    I will try to post plays as early as possible, but please bear in mind that any new series will depend on Stifler posting in his chase thread, which thankfully, he is very good about.

    Again, thanks to Stifler for permission to go ahead with this.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 04-08-13 04:49 PM #2
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Current Stifler record: 16-0, 2 series pending
    RL Record: 15-0(+15.00u), 3 series pending(-2.05u in play)

    Bet Records
    A bet: 6-11
    B bet: 2-6
    C bet: 4-2
    D bet: 1-0


    Here is what today's card would have looked like. The lines posted are final lines from scoresandodds.com.
    NOTE: For future lines, I will post the given line at the time of the posting(per 5Dimes) and will only update it if there is significant movement during the day.

    4/8/13



    S3
    (D Bet) SF: SF -1.5(+115) 3.39u
    (A Bet) Bal fade: Boston -1.5(+135) .74u
    (A Bet) Boston: Boston -1.5(+135) .74u
    (A Bet) TB fade: Texas -1.5(+115) .87u
    (A Bet) Hou fade: Seattle -1.5(+130) .769u
    (A Bet) ChC: ChC -1.5(+160) .625u
    (A Bet) Cin fade: St. Louis -1.5(+180) .555u
    Last edited by samrock67; 04-09-13 at 12:10 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 04-08-13 05:04 PM #3
    abzflabz
    abzflabz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-03-12
    Posts: 195
    Betpoints: 485

    Checkin in
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 04-08-13 05:44 PM #4
    rustie
    rustie's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-23-12
    Posts: 358
    Betpoints: 3969

    Will be keeping a eye on this too, Thanks Samrock
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 04-08-13 09:16 PM #5
    ColdBeerHere
    Tailing Wilson
    ColdBeerHere's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-25-11
    Posts: 3,626
    Betpoints: 8151

    Checking in also, thanks Sam
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 04-08-13 09:34 PM #6
    Tolrad
    Tolrad's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-08-13
    Posts: 1
    Betpoints: 24

    I'm watching as well.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 04-09-13 03:24 AM #7
    Thadeus
    Becoming a robot...
    Thadeus's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-19-13
    Posts: 9
    Betpoints: 280

    Interesting... thanks a lot
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 04-09-13 08:39 AM #8
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Quote Originally Posted by samrock67 View Post

    4/8/13



    S3
    (D Bet) SF: SF -1.5(+115) 3.39u
    (A Bet) Bal fade: Boston -1.5(+135) .74u
    (A Bet) Boston: Boston -1.5(+135) .74u
    (A Bet) TB fade: Texas -1.5(+115) .87u
    (A Bet) Hou fade: Seattle -1.5(+130) .769u
    (A Bet) ChC: ChC -1.5(+160) .625u
    (A Bet) Cin fade: St. Louis -1.5(+180) .555u
    Pending
    S3 TB fade, B bet on 4/9/13
    S3 ChC, B bet on 4/9/13
    S3 Cin fade, B bet on 4/9/13
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 04-09-13 08:56 AM #9
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    4/9/2013

    Current Stifler record: 18-0
    RL Record: 15-0(+15.00u), 3 series pending(-2.05u in play)

    Bet Records
    A bet: 7-11
    B bet: 2-6
    C bet: 4-2
    D bet: 2-0

    S2

    (A bet) Pit fade: Arizona -1.5(+145) .69u

    S3
    (B Bet) TB fade: Texas -1.5(+115) .87u| Texas -1.5(+145) 1.29u
    (B Bet) Cubs: Cubs -1.5(+160) .625u | Cubs -1.5(+185) .878u
    (B Bet) Cin fade: St.Louis -1.5(+180) .555u | St. Louis -1.5(+180) .864u
    (A Bet) Tor fade: Detroit -1.5(+170) .588u
    (A Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u
    (A Bet) ChW fade: Washington -1.5(+145) .69u
    Last edited by samrock67; 04-09-13 at 10:15 AM.
    Points Awarded:

    laca07 gave samrock67 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 04-09-13 09:15 AM #10
    mrk77
    mrk77's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-10-12
    Posts: 97
    Betpoints: 8855

    checking in
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 04-09-13 09:48 AM #11
    bigdog56
    bigdog56's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-28-09
    Posts: 4
    Betpoints: 102

    Thanks for doing this. I'm expecting positive results here!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 04-09-13 11:28 AM #12
    laca07
    laca07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-19-12
    Posts: 61
    Betpoints: 743

    Just throwing it out there, you may be better off running this as a RL -1 system. That extra half will earn you some pushes. It will cost you more, however.

    Either way, thanks for tracking this!
    Last edited by laca07; 04-09-13 at 12:47 PM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 04-09-13 11:48 AM #13
    ColdBeerHere
    Tailing Wilson
    ColdBeerHere's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-25-11
    Posts: 3,626
    Betpoints: 8151

    alright Sam I'm tailing...Got a little in an account which I plan on following this system....No big money....

    I wanted to do a home team RL chase of some kind...,..I may do it down the road but for now I want to follow this.....Love the + odds and no juice...FWIW I am risking one unit each step of the chase so units are 1 - 2 - 4 - 8

    Let's have some fun withh this, and make some money

    ***for record purposes my BR is starting with 66 units*** - putting this in this post so I can look back in the future to see how much my BR has hopefully grown.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 04-09-13 02:06 PM #14
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Quote Originally Posted by laca07 View Post
    Just throwing it out there, you may be better off running this as a RL -1 system. That extra half will earn you some pushes. It will cost you more, however.

    Either way, thanks for tracking this!
    I hear ya, except the idea is not to push, but to win. A push in the scheme of the chase would just be counted as a loss.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 04-09-13 10:33 PM #15
    ColdBeerHere
    Tailing Wilson
    ColdBeerHere's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-25-11
    Posts: 3,626
    Betpoints: 8151

    Biggggg Night....Up over 11 units with LAA pending...

    that's what I'm talking about
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 04-09-13 10:57 PM #16
    figue
    Update your status
    figue's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-23-10
    Posts: 2,524
    Betpoints: 2638

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 04-09-13 11:34 PM #17
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    CBH-

    The 1-2-4-8 strategy isn't a terrible idea, but just based on the numbers on my spreadsheet, you never end up risking more than 7 units total on a series. The variance in series cost is crazy- cheapest series was .588 units and most expensive was 6.8 units. More often than not you could probably do a RL chase for 5-6 games and still not spend as much as a regular 4-game chase.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 04-10-13 08:27 AM #18
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Quote Originally Posted by samrock67 View Post

    S2

    (A bet) Pit fade: Arizona -1.5(+145) .69u

    S3
    (B Bet) TB fade: Texas -1.5(+115) .87u| Texas -1.5(+145) 1.29u
    (B Bet) Cubs: Cubs -1.5(+160) .625u | Cubs -1.5(+185) .878u
    (B Bet) Cin fade: St.Louis -1.5(+180) .555u | St. Louis -1.5(+180) .864u
    (A Bet) Tor fade: Detroit -1.5(+170) .588u
    (A Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u
    (A Bet) ChW fade: Washington -1.5(+145) .69u
    Pending
    S2 Pit fade, B Bet on 4/10/13
    S3 LAA, B Bet on 4/10/13
    S3 ChW fade, B Bet on 4/10/13
    Last edited by samrock67; 04-10-13 at 08:31 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 04-10-13 08:38 AM #19
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    4/10/2013

    Current Stifler record: 22-0
    RL Record: 19-0(+19.00u*), 3 series pending(-2.07u in play)
    * Assumes you are trying to win 1u per series

    Bet Records
    A bet: 8-14
    B bet: 5-6
    C bet: 4-2
    D bet: 2-0

    4/10/13

    S2

    (B Bet) Pit fade: Arizona -1.5(+145) .69u | Arizona -1.5(+110) 1.54u

    S3
    (B Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u | LA Angels -1.5(+155) 1.09u
    (B Bet) ChW fade: Washington -1.5(+145) .69u | Washington -1.5(+135) 1.25u
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 04-10-13 11:52 AM #20
    ColdBeerHere
    Tailing Wilson
    ColdBeerHere's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-25-11
    Posts: 3,626
    Betpoints: 8151

    Thnx for posting sam....yes I like your idea of possibly being able to chase for 5 or 6 games....are you going to chase that far or just stick to the 4 games ?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 04-10-13 01:21 PM #21
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Quote Originally Posted by ColdBeerHere View Post
    Thnx for posting sam....yes I like your idea of possibly being able to chase for 5 or 6 games....are you going to chase that far or just stick to the 4 games ?
    For now I'm actually just keeping track- I'm still in the process of making up money lost on the basketball season. I'd like to grow my roll a little bit and see how this system performs over the course of 1-2 months before diving in.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 04-11-13 08:25 AM #22
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Quote Originally Posted by samrock67 View Post
    4/10/13

    S2

    (B Bet) Pit fade: Arizona -1.5(+145) .69u | Arizona -1.5(+110) 1.54u

    S3
    (B Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u | LA Angels -1.5(+155) 1.09u
    (B Bet) ChW fade: Washington -1.5(+145) .69u | Washington -1.5(+135) 1.25u
    Pending:
    S3 LAA, C bet on 4/11/13
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 04-11-13 08:26 AM #23
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    CBH-

    I'm going to run the numbers to see what the profit would look like if you followed a 1-2-4-8 betting strategy. I expect the results will be drastically different. Stay tuned...
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 04-11-13 09:10 AM #24
    ColdBeerHere
    Tailing Wilson
    ColdBeerHere's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-25-11
    Posts: 3,626
    Betpoints: 8151

    Quote Originally Posted by samrock67 View Post
    CBH-

    I'm going to run the numbers to see what the profit would look like if you followed a 1-2-4-8 betting strategy. I expect the results will be drastically different. Stay tuned...
    ok great, let me know
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 04-11-13 09:50 AM #25
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Awesome stuff...

    So if you use the following system:

    A bet- risk 1 unit
    B bet- risk 2 units
    C bet- risk 4 units
    D bet- risk 8 units

    You would be up 40.95 units as of today. awesome, awesome stuff...especially knowing that the most you risk per series is 15 units, which you would easily lose in a regular series loss anyway.
    Points Awarded:

    laca07 gave samrock67 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    ColdBeerHere gave samrock67 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 04-11-13 11:53 AM #26
    laca07
    laca07's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-19-12
    Posts: 61
    Betpoints: 743

    Good stuff here, CBH & samrock. Thanks very much. Sam - how long would you take you to run #s on Stif's plays from last season? Probably not worth your time, just curious.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 04-11-13 12:39 PM #27
    ColdBeerHere
    Tailing Wilson
    ColdBeerHere's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-25-11
    Posts: 3,626
    Betpoints: 8151

    Quote Originally Posted by samrock67 View Post
    Awesome stuff...

    So if you use the following system:

    A bet- risk 1 unit
    B bet- risk 2 units
    C bet- risk 4 units
    D bet- risk 8 units

    You would be up 40.95 units as of today. awesome, awesome stuff...especially knowing that the most you risk per series is 15 units, which you would easily lose in a regular series loss anyway.
    very nice...Ya I think I am up around 12 or 13 units just in the two days I have bet it


    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  28. 04-11-13 01:44 PM #28
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    4/11/2013

    Current Stifler record: 23-0
    RL Record: 21-0(+21.00u*), 2 series pending(-1.78u in play)
    * Assumes you are trying to win 1u per series

    Bet Records
    A bet: 8-14
    B bet: 7-7
    C bet: 4-2
    D bet: 2-0

    11.04.2013

    S3

    (B Bet) LAA: LA Angels -1.5(+145) .69u | LA Angels -1.5(+155) 1.09 | LA Angels -1.5(+158) 1.76u
    (A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle -1.5(+135) .641u
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  29. 04-11-13 01:47 PM #29
    TheDarkKnight01
    TheDarkKnight01's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-31-12
    Posts: 390
    Betpoints: 0

    good stuff here, keep up the great work buddy.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  30. 04-11-13 01:48 PM #30
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    I'm considering making my life and hopefully the rest of yours easier by changing the format of my posts.

    Since the 1-2-4-8 system seems to be more profitable, and it is much easier to keep track of, would everyone be ok if I switched my posts to using that betting strategy?

    A bet- risk 1 unit
    B bet- risk 2 units
    C bet- risk 4 units
    D bet- risk 8 units

    You would be up 41 units to date(40.95 to be exact) using this system.

    This is what today's card would look like:

    S3

    (C Bet) LAA -1.5, 4u
    (A Bet) Tex fade: Seattle -1.5, 1u
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  31. 04-11-13 06:45 PM #31
    cooler54
    cooler54's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-24-13
    Posts: 50
    Betpoints: 0

    wow interesting stuff guys...with the +41 units so far a huge chunk of that is coming from the +money u are making from taking the runline i assume? whereas with stiflers ml system it would be 23 units so far?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  32. 04-11-13 07:04 PM #32
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Quote Originally Posted by cooler54 View Post
    wow interesting stuff guys...with the +41 units so far a huge chunk of that is coming from the +money u are making from taking the runline i assume? whereas with stiflers ml system it would be 23 units so far?
    the +41 units is if you follow the 1-2-4-8 betting strategy, and yes, it's from taking every game at -1.5, when the odds are anywhere from +100 to +180(usually average +150).
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  33. 04-11-13 07:06 PM #33
    ColdBeerHere
    Tailing Wilson
    ColdBeerHere's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-25-11
    Posts: 3,626
    Betpoints: 8151

    That would be awesome Sam if you just went with the 1-2-4-8......Like you said a losing series is only 15u
    Last edited by ColdBeerHere; 04-11-13 at 07:09 PM. Reason: showed wager for another system
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  34. 04-11-13 07:10 PM #34
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Ok, since CBH seems to be the only person who is ACTUALLY using this thread to bet, I will honor him by switching to his betting strategy.

    From now on, the system will reflect the following betting strategy:

    A bet: Risk 1 unit
    B bet: Risk 2 units
    C bet: Risk 4 units
    D bet: Risk 8 units

    This way, the most you will ever stand to lose on a series is 15 units(pretty cheap for a 4-game chase). As you can plainly see, the +41 units through 21 wins amounts to an average of almost 2 units/series...

    Looking forward to seeing the success continue!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  35. 04-11-13 08:18 PM #35
    samrock67
    samrock67's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-05-12
    Posts: 647
    Betpoints: 1230

    Seem to have jinxed myself...

    Looks like we are looking at the 1st loss of the season as the White Sox are about to drop 3 straight after winning the first game by 1.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
1234 ... Last
Top
« Previous Thread | Baseball Betting | Next Thread »