1. #1
    Justin3587
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    How many MLB games

    Are decided by one run? Does anybody have some concrete stats?

  2. #2
    iifold
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    Nothing is set in stone...

    You must be one with the present...

    Strike fast...

  3. #3
    Justin3587
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    Quote Originally Posted by iifold View Post
    Nothing is set in stone...

    You must be one with the present...

    Strike fast...
    Haha just looking for a percentage of games that end in one run. The -1.5 lines are scary sometimes.

  4. #4
    iifold
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin3587 View Post
    Haha just looking for a percentage of games that end in one run. The -1.5 lines are scary sometimes.
    Are you going to exclude data from the "steroid era?"

    When did the steroid era end??

    What drugs are they using now???

    I don't know these answers, but I'm pretty sure Kris Medlen is overvalued at the moment and the Seattle offense is undervalued...

    This might not be true in 9 days...

  5. #5
    greenhippo
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    From what I looked at, its between 25 and 30% of games.

  6. #6
    greenhippo
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    19 of 76 games this year are 1-run games, 25%.

  7. #7
    Justin3587
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    Quote Originally Posted by iifold View Post
    Are you going to exclude data from the "steroid era?"

    When did the steroid era end??

    What drugs are they using now???

    I don't know these answers, but I'm pretty sure Kris Medlen is overvalued at the moment and the Seattle offense is undervalued...

    This might not be true in 9 days...
    Yea. Medlen got licked the other night. Kershaw looks phenomenal. But I took the dodgers -1.5 tonight and got smoked. I think the angels are a good team to pound this year. They have been dogs like their last three games. I think Texas is WAY overvalued.

  8. #8
    Justin3587
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    Quote Originally Posted by greenhippo View Post
    19 of 76 games this year are 1-run games, 25%.
    Do you have a site or app you use for these numbers ?

  9. #9
    greenhippo
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    I keep track. My bets are 99% underdog MLs, faves on the RL or 1st inning score props. I'm doing really well so far, just a lot of info to track on a daily basis to keep up. Luckily record reflects it so far.

  10. #10
    Justin3587
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    Quote Originally Posted by greenhippo View Post
    I keep track. My bets are 99% underdog MLs, faves on the RL or 1st inning score props. I'm doing really well so far, just a lot of info to track on a daily basis to keep up. Luckily record reflects it so far.
    What do you mean by faves on the RL? Meaning you don't take ML wagers??

  11. #11
    Justin3587
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    I mean ML faves.

  12. #12
    greenhippo
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    I have once and even then I still bet them on the RL.

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...ks-thread.html

    12-1-1 first week of bases. There are simply too many cases and opportunities where the RL is the smart choice. For example Blue Jays RL of +130 their third game after losing the first two as opposed to the -155 ML. No way I could pass that up.
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  13. #13
    matthew919
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    From 2009-2012 (a total of 9719 regular season games), 29.2% of games were decided by one run.

    By year:
    2009 - 27.0%
    2010 - 30.1%
    2011 - 31.0%
    2012 - 28.7%
    Last edited by matthew919; 04-07-13 at 07:42 AM.

  14. #14
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew919 View Post
    From 2009-2012 (a total of 9719 regular season games), 29.2% of games were decided by one run.

    By year:
    2009 - 27.0%
    2010 - 30.1%
    2011 - 31.0%
    2012 - 28.7%
    Good info.

    Now whose going to break it down for us by fav prices and how often they won by 1 run, because I would assume the closer the line, the more likely it was to be a one run game obviously.

  15. #15
    Justin3587
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    agreed. I NEED this info as Verlander, Cain, Price, Weaver, and Strasburg all lost today. What a god damn joke.

  16. #16
    greenhippo
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    Wouldn't have helped you today, all 5 of them were blow outs.

  17. #17
    easyliving
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    the actual # is about 24-25%

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