1. 04-01-13 11:32 AM #1
    on3
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    on3's MLB 2013 Opening Day System Thread

    Last year was a down year and the decline started after the All-star break. The first half of the season was great. Basic rules -- if HOME team A is favored by -145 or greater in game1 of their series, they are a play. 3 game chase. A few filters:

    It was shown to be profitable to play a 5/2 system, the 5/2 is indicating the units bet to win the series. The trigger is when a filtered play loses the (A) game.
    No 2-game series' should be played.
    After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test.
    Odds > -190 should be played on the RL.
    The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.
    Last edited by on3; 04-01-13 at 11:47 AM.
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  2. 04-01-13 11:42 AM #2
    on3
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    UPDATED for 04/1/2013
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    LABBY LINES FOR 04/1/2013
    10-10-10-1010-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10

    New Line Filtered
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10

    REGULAR FOR 4/1/2013
    (A) WAS -250/-115 to win 20 -- play RL
    (A) NYM -145 to win 20
    (A) MIL -147 to win 20
    (A) LAD -145 to win 20

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
    Points Awarded:

    Sandwich gave on3 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  3. 04-01-13 11:56 AM #3
    analyzer
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    On3 - do you know how many years of backtest showed a profit prior to last season? I only followed last season and was unsure whether to jump back in again or pass.
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  4. 04-01-13 12:05 PM #4
    on3
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    I will have to check the backtest in last year's thread, but 5 out of 6 years it has been above +40 units
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  5. 04-01-13 12:13 PM #5
    analyzer
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    Sounds good - thanks on3!
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  6. 04-01-13 01:01 PM #6
    hagball52
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    Checking in. Good luck this year On3.
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  7. 04-01-13 04:29 PM #7
    on3
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    bang biscuit, 3-0 to start the season.
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  8. 04-01-13 04:46 PM #8
    Vinnie Paz
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  9. 04-01-13 05:39 PM #9
    juice050
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    dam possible sweep for the day... lets get it.
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  10. 04-01-13 05:59 PM #10
    on3
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    UPDATED for 4/2/2013
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 4-0; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    LABBY LINES FOR 4/2/2013
    Regular
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10

    Filtered
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10

    REGULAR FOR 4/2/2013
    (A) TB -163 to win 20
    (A) TOR -165 to win 20

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
    Points Awarded:

    analyzer gave on3 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    thelimit0310 gave on3 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    mcmister gave on3 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    thes0vereign gave on3 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  11. 04-01-13 09:21 PM #11
    bauerranch
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    Checking in
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  12. 04-02-13 12:11 AM #12
    imotiv8
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    nice!!
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  13. 04-02-13 06:47 AM #13
    Want2Win
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    Where might I find instructions about what you mean by 5/2 and about the filter? Or is it just as simple to just follow the plays that you list? In other words If you list a play, you will already take in to consideration the filters? I saw your thread on Stifler's and I just follow his plays. Kinda like what time it is versus how the clock works ))

    thanks!
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  14. 04-02-13 06:48 AM #14
    Want2Win
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    One more thing, Does anyone know why I can't give any points all of a sudden?
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  15. 04-02-13 06:57 AM #15
    dominate.
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    checking in!
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  16. 04-02-13 09:15 AM #16
    thelimit0310
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    Thanks for bringing the 5/2 back this year On3, I will be following both your filtered system plays as well as 5/2. Good luck this season and thanks for the plays On3!!!

    5/2 instructions are here for anyone interested
    Last edited by thelimit0310; 04-02-13 at 10:52 AM.
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  17. 04-02-13 09:27 AM #17
    MexicanStallion
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    Quote Originally Posted by Want2Win View Post
    One more thing, Does anyone know why I can't give any points all of a sudden?
    You can only give 2 points/24 Hours
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  18. 04-02-13 01:51 PM #18
    Want2Win
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    Thanks Stallion, I know that ... but I haven't been able to give any points in a long time. As soon as I click the give point icon in a thread, It jumps me to the top of the page. I haven't been able to give points for weeks. Any idea?

    These guys do a lot of work with their picks and I just like to give points for their work
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  19. 04-03-13 01:11 AM #19
    on3
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    UPDATED for 4/3/2013
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    LABBY LINES FOR 4/3/2013
    Regular
    10-10-43-42
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10

    Filtered
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10

    REGULAR FOR 4/3/2013
    (B) TB -138 to win 20
    (B) TOR -173 to win 20

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
    Points Awarded:

    analyzer gave on3 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    DANO74 gave on3 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  20. 04-03-13 01:52 AM #20
    ExodusNZ
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    Whats the formula for excel to work out "to win" amounts. Ie on3 says he is betting enough to win $20.

    What is the easy way to calculate this ?


    eg: [-163] is (1.6135) x 33 = $53 so $20 profit

    I just want to type in the excel box the amount I want to win (and the odds) and it will spit out how much I need to bet
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  21. 04-03-13 10:47 AM #21
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExodusNZ View Post
    Whats the formula for excel to work out "to win" amounts. Ie on3 says he is betting enough to win $20.

    What is the easy way to calculate this ?


    eg: [-163] is (1.6135) x 33 = $53 so $20 profit

    I just want to type in the excel box the amount I want to win (and the odds) and it will spit out how much I need to bet
    No need, just follow my labby line. I do it for you.
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  22. 04-04-13 12:45 AM #22
    on3
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    UPDATED for 4/4/2013
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 5-0-0; Profit: +5 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 1-1; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

    LABBY LINES FOR 4/3/2013
    Regular
    10-10-43-42
    x-10-44-x
    10-10-10-10

    Filtered
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10

    REGULAR FOR 4/4/2013
    (C) TOR -155 to win 20

    Filtered
    none

    5/2
    none
    Points Awarded:

    analyzer gave on3 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  23. 04-04-13 05:40 AM #23
    ExodusNZ
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    Hey

    Thanks.

    What bankroll would you suggest starting with? If we were playing your exact plays?
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  24. 04-04-13 12:26 PM #24
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by ExodusNZ View Post
    Hey

    Thanks.

    What bankroll would you suggest starting with? If we were playing your exact plays?
    minimum $1000. no need for more than $2000.
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  25. 04-04-13 09:28 PM #25
    juice050
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    good shit on3
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  26. 04-05-13 01:24 AM #26
    on3
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    UPDATED for 4/5/2013
    System(s) record Chase:
    Regular system: 6-0-0; Profit: +6 units
    Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
    5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

    Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
    Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
    Game 2 (B) win = 1-1; 0-0; 0-0
    Game 3 (C) win = 1-0; 0-0; 0-0

    LABBY LINES FOR 4/5/2013
    Regular
    Reshuffled and added units to accomodate all plays
    25-25-28-27-20-20-20
    x-10-44-x
    x-10-10-x

    Filtered
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10
    10-10-10-10

    REGULAR FOR 4/5/2013
    (A) NYM -165 to win 25
    (A) ATL -177 to win 25
    (A) LAD -200/+105 to win 28 -- play RL
    (A) DET -180 to win 27
    (A) BAL -155 to win 20
    (A) TOR -163 to win 20
    (A) TB -173 to win 20

    Filtered
    (A) BAL -155 to win 20

    5/2
    none
    Points Awarded:

    analyzer gave on3 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    hagball52 gave on3 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    thes0vereign gave on3 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  27. 04-05-13 02:57 AM #27
    ExodusNZ
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    So do you bet the Orioles twice tomorrow ?
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  28. 04-05-13 08:33 AM #28
    analyzer
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    If you playing both filtered and regular, yes you would play them twice.
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  29. 04-05-13 08:43 AM #29
    hagball52
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    Nice work on your post On3.
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  30. 04-05-13 10:04 AM #30
    Mr. Green
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    What about Colorado?

    Thanks
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  31. 04-05-13 10:55 AM #31
    thes0vereign
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Green View Post
    What about Colorado?

    Thanks
    I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure it's based on the opening price. Colorado opened at -137.

    Can on3 confirm?
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  32. 04-05-13 12:27 PM #32
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by thes0vereign View Post
    I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure it's based on the opening price. Colorado opened at -137.

    Can on3 confirm?
    I post based on opening lines to get the earliest post for everyone's convenience. But sometimes, lines shift down or up which either negates them or enhances them to a play. In last nights case, Chicago White Sox were borderline PLAY ON and Colorado was borderline PLAY OFF. That has obviously reversed this AM. Long story short, official play:

    (A) COL -155 to win 20
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  33. 04-05-13 08:23 PM #33
    thes0vereign
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    Thanks for the explanation. I was away from the computer most of the day, so I didn't get it in.
    Last edited by thes0vereign; 04-05-13 at 08:41 PM. Reason: That's what she said...
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  34. 04-06-13 03:59 AM #34
    on3
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    early games tomorrow (B) TOR -151 to win 27 and (B) NYM -150 to win 27
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  35. 04-06-13 03:59 AM #35
    on3
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    Will do a full update in the morning
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