[TxBulldog]

I have been working on some revisions to my MLB model. I will post as often as possible. Today, I see solid value on the Astros. I make the Astros 47-48% probable to win the game today. We are getting +152 which makes break even at less than 40%. When you consider that Norris and Harrison are very similar in skill (equally meh), I can see NO WAY Texas is the smart play. This is coming from a Ranger fan

Things to know about my posts...I will not do write ups.
I do not believe in locks....this is a very LONG season and it is about betting with value, WIN OR LOSE!

Tonight: 1 unit Hou+152

Good Luck All

[TxBulldog]

Yesterday - Win on Astros
Posted Record
1-0
+1.5u

Mon 4/1

1 unit plays
MIL (Gallardo/Chacin) -145
PHI (Hamels/Hudson) +105
STL (Wainwright/Kennedy) +100
MIL (Gallardo/Chacin) OVER7.5 -125

.5 unit plays
CIN (Weaver/Cueto) OVER7.5 +105
CWS (Shields/Sale) OVER7.5 +110

PLEASE NOTE: ALL my plays are units risk. For instance MIL -145 is risk 100 to win 68.97 and PHI is risk 100 to win 105. I know this is not how most do it, but it is the way I work. I manage my risk via a spreadsheet that I update daily and it is about managing RISK! My record will be kept using this same method.

[TxBulldog]

Monday Results

2-3
-1.5U

YTD
3-3
Even

Looking at 5 plays for today...will post after I confirm a few things.

[TxBulldog]

Tuesday

All risking 1 unit:

						4/2/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 959 Cleveland Indians +171* vs Toronto Blue Jays (J Masterson - R must Start R Dickey - R must Start)
						4/2/13 8:10pm MLB Baseball 952 Milwaukee Brewers -141* vs Colorado Rockies (J De La Rosa - L must Start M Estrada - R must Start)
						4/2/13 10:10pm MLB Baseball 955 San Francisco Giants -102* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (M Bumgarner - L must Start H Ryu - L must Start)
						4/2/13 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 951 Colorado Rockies/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8 -115* (J De La Rosa - L must Start M Estrada - R must Start)

[alwayswins9484]

Monday Results

2-3
-1.5U

YTD
3-3
Even

Looking at 5 plays for today...will post after I confirm a few things.

Shouldn't it be 2-4, not 2-3?

[alwayswins9484]

By the way, I like your betting philosophy especially the idea that there is no such thing as a lock and also that you base your bets on risk rather than the traditional "to win 100 if favorite, to risk 100 if underdog." I think all bets should be created equal no matter if they're a favorite or an underdog. If a bet has value, it has value. I think standardizing all bets allows the bettor to concentrate on his real job: identifying value.

[TxBulldog]

Shouldn't it be 2-4, not 2-3?

Half unit plays are exactly that...hald a game in the record. There will be 1.5 and 2 unit plays after things get going. These count as as 1.5 or 2 games a piese in the record also.

[alwayswins9484]

Oh okay, but how are you accounting for the moneyline factor? Unit records don't tell the whole story. A 2-3 unit record on underdog plays is better than a 3-2 record relying on favorite plays.

[TxBulldog]

At $100 unit size
1-0
+1.5u THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE + $152

Mon 4/1

1 unit plays
MIL (Gallardo/Chacin) -145 WIN $69
PHI (Hamels/Hudson) +105 LOSE $100
STL (Wainwright/Kennedy) +100 LOSE $100
MIL (Gallardo/Chacin) OVER7.5 -125 WIN $80

.5 unit plays
CIN (Weaver/Cueto) OVER7.5 +105 LOSE $50
CWS (Shields/Sale) OVER7.5 +110 LOSE $50

This actually nets out to +$1 A little miscalculation earlier, but essentially even. I will keep my record here using $100 units. I may make errors sometimes because I use a variable unit size (I am a modified kelly bettor). Because of my starting BR size and how my sheet works, I am up a LITTLE more, but the units sizes change nearly EVERY day.


I will try to keep this accurate (and apologize for the miscalculation), but quite honestly the posting is low priority behind family, work and keeping my model and BR sheet accurate.

[TxBulldog]

Tue recap

3-1 for +$256

YTD
6-4 for +$257

looking at first line run now. Might be back with some Wed plays shortly.

[TxBulldog]

Here are my sides for Wed. I will be back later today with my totals (if any) after I can look at conditions later in the day.

These are all one unit RISKED!

						4/3/13 10:05pm Reduced Baseball 928 Oakland Athletics -139* vs Seattle Mariners (J Saunders - L must Start T Milone - L must Start)
						4/3/13 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 909 Colorado Rockies +119* vs Milwaukee Brewers (J Nicasio - R must Start W Peralta - R must Start)
						4/3/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 921 Cleveland Indians +166* vs Toronto Blue Jays (U Jimenez - R must Start B Morrow - R must Start)
						4/3/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 924 New York Yankees -112* vs Boston Red Sox (C Buchholz - R must Start H Kuroda - R must Start)
						4/3/13 4:10pm Reduced Baseball 919 Detroit Tigers -151* vs Minnesota Twins (A Sanchez - R must Start K Correia - R must Start)

[TxBulldog]

Here are my totals plays for the day. This is the first full slate of games and I have my first max card...... 8 units.

0.5 unit				4/3/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 923 Boston Red Sox/New York Yankees Over 7½ -102* (C Buchholz - R must Start H Kuroda - R must Start)
		1.0 unit				4/3/13 10:05pm Reduced Baseball 927 Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics Under 7½ -110* (J Saunders - L must Start T Milone - L must Start)
		1.5 unit				4/3/13 8:10pm Reduced Baseball909 Colorado Rockies/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8½ -118* (J Nicasio - R must Start W Peralta - R must Start)

[TxBulldog]

Wed recap

5-3 for + $233

YTD

11-7 for + $490

I will have my sides for Thursday posted in the next 15 minutes

[TxBulldog]

Here are the sides.

These are all risk one unit each. I will post the totals around 11 AM CDT

						4/4/13 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 957 Philadelphia Phillies +117* vs Atlanta Braves (C Lee - L must Start K Medlen - R must Start)
						4/4/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 969 Cleveland Indians +153* vs Toronto Blue Jays (B Myers - R must Start M Buehrle - L must Start)
						4/4/13 2:10pm Reduced Baseball 962 Chicago White Sox -120* vs Kansas City Royals (J Guthrie - R must Start G Floyd - R must Start)
						4/4/13 1:10pm Reduced Baseball 953 San Diego Padres +137* vs New York Mets (E Stults - L must Start D Gee - R must Start)
						4/4/13 12:35pm Reduced Baseball 971 Los Angeles Angels +115* vs Cincinnati Reds (J Blanton - R must Start B Arroyo - R must Start)

[TxBulldog]

Here are my dayshift totals. I am looking at one more for the night shift. Sorry for the late post if anyone is tailing.

						4/4/13 2:10pm Reduced Baseball 961 Kansas City Royals/Chicago White Sox Over 8 -105* (J Guthrie - R must Start G Floyd - R must Start)
						4/4/13 12:35pm Reduced Baseball 971 Los Angeles Angels/Cincinnati Reds Over 8 +100* (J Blanton - R must Start B Arroyo - R must Start)

[TxBulldog]

I was looking at one total more for the night shift. However, conditions just aren't worth playing the total. However, the price of backing Pettite has fallen to a point I can't resist backing him.

My final unit of the day will be:

Yankees -115 (Pettite/Dempster)

Have the day off from work, so I have been spending the day watching the action. Great way to spend the afternoon. I go to the evening down a little over a half unit, so it would be nice to win 2 of 3 and get the winning streak up to 3 days. Guess I'll be a good hubby and take the wife out for a date night tonight.

[TxBulldog]

Thursday finishes with a 4-4 record for + $39 Nice to win money, even if I didn't win units.

YTD is now 15-11 for + $529

That is a 57.7% start at an average winning price of +1.086 Historically I hit about 53-54% at a price of around +104, so this is a pretty good start to the season.

I will be posting late in the morning on Friday since I will be around the house in the AM and I cost myself some money today by playing too early.

[Semper Fidelis]

Good start to the season buddy! What has been your profit for past seasons, and what is your goal for this season?

[figue]

[TxBulldog]

Good start to the season buddy! What has been your profit for past seasons, and what is your goal for this season?

This is my first season 100% my own work. I am unfortunately unable to "tail" my mentor of over a decade any longer. The numbers I quoted above are based on last season when I did my own work for a few months. His results exceed that! My goal is hard to state in "forum" standards since they relate to my spreadsheet that controls everything! I have some goals and they are pretty damn lofty by forum standards. They are likely "unprovable" by forum standards since I know there will periods when I will not be able to post my plays. Suffice it to say that if I hit my goals for this year, my posted record should stand on its own.

As good a start as this has been, it has also included some "mistakes" on my part that have cost me $. It should have been better. Oh well.

Thanks for the kudos guys. I will work hard to keep it going.

[TxBulldog]

Here is today's card. I REALLY like the O's game over. It is my first two un it of the year. Since my card worked out to only 7 units, I also tied it into a couple half unit parlays with big chalk where I think we have an edge, but refuse to lay the big lumber. (My model has the Tigers -215 and LAD -227) Not good BR managment, but I couldn't resist.

Gonna head to the Horseshoe now for a Afternoon/Evening of Poker.

			.5 UNIT			2 Team Parlay PAYS 1.12 UNITS
						4/5/13 10:10pm MLB Baseball 914 Los Angeles Dodgers -200* vs Pittsburgh Pirates (J Sanchez - L must Start Z Greinke - R must Start)
						4/5/13 3:05pm MLB Baseball 919 Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles Over 9½ +105* (L Hendriks - R must Start J Arrieta - R must Start)
			.5 UNIT			2 Team Parlay PAYS 1.04 UNITS
						4/5/13 1:05pm MLB Baseball 916 Detroit Tigers -173* vs New York Yankees (I Nova - R must Start D Fister - R must Start)
						4/5/13 3:05pm MLB Baseball 919 Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles Over 9½ +105* (L Hendriks - R must Start J Arrieta - R must Start)
			1 UNIT			4/5/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 906 New York Mets -152* vs Miami Marlins (A Sanabia - R must Start J Hefner - R must Start)
			1 UNIT			4/5/13 4:35pm MLB Baseball 904 San Francisco Giants -118* vs St. Louis Cardinals (J Westbrook - R must Start B Zito - L must Start)
			1 UNIT			4/5/13 4:10pm MLB Baseball 901 San Diego Padres +150* vs Colorado Rockies (J Marquis - R must Start J Francis - L must Start)
			1 UNIT			4/5/13 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 925 Oakland Athletics/Houston Astros Over 8½ -105* (D Straily - R must Start B Peacock - R must Start)
			1 UNIT			4/5/13 4:10pm Reduced Baseball 901 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Over 11 -110* (J Marquis - R must Start J Francis - L must Start)
			TWO UNITS			4/5/13 3:05pm Reduced Baseball 919 Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles Over 9½ +110* (L Hendriks - R must Start J Arrieta - R must Start)

[TxBulldog]

Just got back in from a very frustrating day of poker....you know how it is...you flop a set, they turn a flush...etc. Oh well, I nearly broke even, so I can't complain too much.

In MLB, I can't complain at all. I just graded my models performance and I have to give it a solid "B" on the day. Sides, I did a pretty poor judge in that I played SD and MIN but passed on ARZ. This was just poor decision making on my part. There were also two winning totals that I "took down" because I judged the weather to be unfavorable. In other words, the model performed very well, I didn't perform so well on my grading.

On the other hand, the Balt Over play was spot on. Still not the best decision I have ever made essentially playing 3 units on it, but it worked out. I will take it! Because of how this run has been going, I had a MONSTER day personally. I declared a hefty dividend today just to keep my unit size from being monstrous on Saturday.

For Friday,

I go 5-3 on units for + $315

YTD is now 20-14 and up $844

Off to bed....I will be back in the morning and will see if we can crack +$1000 in the first week!

[TxBulldog]

I just input the opening lines for Saturday and noticed two things. I MAY have a 2 unit total again. We will see after I check weather in the AM. The second thing is I LOVE the line on Sea - Hernandez!


Already placed 1 unit SEA -133 (Henandez/Axelrod). I see this line climbing!

[TxBulldog]

Slept late this AM. Here are the early games. I list ALL pitchers!

SEA -133 (posted last night, would still take at current price)

BOS/TOR Over 9 -110

BOS +129

All 1 unit each. I will be back after I review the rest of the card.

[nbafanatic2012]

all your plays are heavy public favorites

[figue]

Slept late this AM. Here are the early games. I list ALL pitchers!

SEA -133 (posted last night, would still take at current price)

BOS/TOR Over 9 -110

BOS +129

All 1 unit each. I will be back after I review the rest of the card.

[TxBulldog]

all your plays are heavy public favorites......HUH?

[TxBulldog]

Slept late this AM. Here are the early games. I list ALL pitchers!

SEA -133 (posted last night, would still take at current price)

BOS/TOR Over 9 -110

BOS +129

All 1 unit each. I will be back after I review the rest of the card.

Here is the rest of today's card. Early games not not looking great so far.

These are all 1 units

Cubs +159
SDP +129
SFG Un 7 -115
ARI -105
PHI -115

Not the strongest card and the weather did not cooperate at all today!

[TxBulldog]

A pretty poor showing on Saturday results in a setback. These days happen and I am at it again today.

Saturday 2-6, - $418

YTD 22-20, +$426

YTD now 52.4% at +110

Working the model now....back shortly

[TxBulldog]

Here are my early plays. Still working on later games.

1 unit each

						4/7/13 1:35pm Reduced Baseball 919 Minnesota Twins/Baltimore Orioles Over 9 -109* (P Hernandez - R must Start J Hammel - R must Start)
						4/7/13 1:10pm Reduced Baseball 901 Miami Marlins/New York Mets Over 7½ -110* (J Fernandez - R must Start A Laffey - L must Start)
						4/7/13 1:10pm MLB Baseball 903 Washington Nationals +100* vs Cincinnati Reds (S Strasburg - R must Start J Cueto - R must Start)
						4/7/13 1:05pm MLB Baseball 916 Detroit Tigers -1 -145* vs New York Yankees (C Sabathia - L must Start J Verlander - R must Start

[TxBulldog]

Here is the balance of the Sunday card. You will notice I am now using the -1 RL where there is value is good, but the price is over -155. I don't believe in laying the -1.5.

All one unit plays.

						4/7/13 2:10pm MLB Baseball 924 Chicago White Sox -1 -116* vs Seattle Mariners (H Iwakuma - R must Start C Sale - L must Start)
						4/7/13 4:05pm MLB Baseball 910 San Francisco Giants -126* vs St Louis Cardinals (A Wainwright - R must Start M Cain - R must Start)
						4/7/13 2:10pm MLB Baseball 908 Milwaukee Brewers +100* vs Arizona Diamondbacks (I Kennedy - R must Start Y Gallardo - R must Start)
						4/7/13 1:35pm MLB Baseball 920 Baltimore Orioles -1 -135* vs Minnesota Twins (P Hernandez - R must Start J Hammel - R must Start)