[High3rEl3m3nt]

Season-tracking thread. Posting my baseball plays, which are the only plays I feel comfortable sharing.
My plays are based on a number of variables, including situational and sheduling trends, traditional match-ups, recent BP use, and my gut-read on a game. My style is semi-analytical, though I only have so much free time to put into this. I will be wagering between .5 to 3 units, rarely a greater amount on 1 to 3 plays a day. Most of my plays will be locked in the night before, using 5dimes' overnight lines. I do not always beat the line, but it is part of what makes wagering on baseball fun for me.

Enjoy the ride!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I have a couple of win total bets that I will post later this week. I also make a few future plays and will share my strategy. Already, I see several future opportunities that I plan on investing in. I doubt many others enjoy betting futures. If you do and are feeling the urge to lock a few in, I'd argue that it's worth avoiding the Blue Jays and Angels at this point. I also think you'll be able to get better prices on the Dodgers in the month of April and the Giants in April to May.

Can't wait for the season to get underway...I've always argued that all a bettor needs is NHL and MLB to make money. Don't know how you guys beat ATS.

[fitguy67]

I'm glad I discovered this thread BEFORE the season.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

My first futures play will be--I am still debating where I will lock this in at 5dimes, Legends, or Youwager, Padres +1550 +1700 (youwager) to win the NL West. Yes, I know that the NL West features the Dodgers and the reigning W.S. champs, but this team has the right ingredients to be competitive in this division. I will pair up this play with a cover bet on either the Giants or the Dodgers...leaning Giants at the moment. Dodgers have the nice looking lineup, but their rotation is a problem and their bullpen could struggle to hold small leads. This team would win a lot of other divisions, but I don't think they're built to own this division. Some of this team's key pieces are several steps away from showing their counterproductive, toxic selves. I suspect that this team will face some adversity in the season and it will lead to their undoing.

Giants have the bullpen and scrappy hitters, but I suspect their rotation regresses some, causing their BP to handle a greater workload that could catch up with them by late August/ September. The DL bug could hit this team hard this year.

Diamondbacks and Rockies...two teams that I think are heading in the right direction, but need more time. If Rockies hold onto their young guys and get a decent rotation, this team will surprise a lot of folks...certainly underrated in my opinion.

Padres are the poor man's version of the Giants. They're scrappy, not a lot of power, and their pitching is decent--certainly not on the same level as the Giants. This team has the speed to pull off playing small ball. They got off to about the worst start possible last season, but managed to play half decent from the middle on. At the current odds offered and considering the attention that Giants and Dodgers are getting, I think there is some value here with an opportunity later to make a strong cover bet.

PLAY 1: 1.5 Units Padres +1700 to win NL WEST (cover play to come)

PLAY 2: 1.1 Units Baltimore Orioles Under 78.5 wins -110

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Pads are +1700 Youwager. Loading up funds, betting it!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Good luck this season, HigherElement.

[agendaman]

semi-analytical you say translation please

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Fair question...my gut read on a game factors in some.

PLAY 3: 2.30 Units Detroit Tigers Under 92.5 Wins -115 (youwager)

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Looking ahead to opening day. Only one game on 31st, Rangers and Astros, but April 1 will feature some great, rivalry series:

Giants and Dodgers
Red Sox and Yankees
Phillies and Braves

and then we have:
Angels and Reds

[High3rEl3m3nt]

PLAY 4: 4.20 Units Blue Jays Under 89 Wins -105 (Youwager)

There are two more plays that I am considering. Again, I know a lot of you are not attracted to MLB futures, but I am not tying up that much of my BR.

Also, I am big on cashing out once you reach a number. Last year, I cashed out everytime I won a dime (10 units). In my line of thinking, it is very important to touch, see, and stack money. Dangerous when the numbers of the screen are just that. Really helps me to maintain discipline, which may not be an issue for a lot of you--it is for me.

I am also against loading up your whole BR. I will have half of my roll split into my Youwager account and am hoping to create a Heritage account. I have had issues trying to create one from the SBR link. Planning on trying again after I receive my last payout from 5dimes.

Most of you probably don't remember or haven't seen my poor man's moneyclip, but I am very motivated to fatten that sucker up.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Pics of poor man's moneyclip please.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

It's held up to 6k...100's and 50s. I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I want to see what its breaking point is

Spent the day reminiscing over some of last year's biggest wins. I'll never forget laying nearly a dime on Jurrjens first start against the Red Sox last year. The Braves were about a +190 ish dog and ended up winning a low scoring one. I was at a wedding while the game was going and was glancing down at my iphone in true degen fashion. In other news, I have picked the winner of the world series twice in a row (not all that impressive) and I'm hoping to keep that streak alive. Wish I would have loaded up more on the Giants last year and still can't believe the Cards won. I can't wait for the season to get underway, though I'll be betting light for a while.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

At least its not a paperclip holding a couple of 20 dollar bills.

Lets grow that clip this season, Element.

[fitguy67]

Element, i'm super jazzed about what's starting up in a week.

I'm with you 100% that a ML-focused program of betting on professional sports events with a clear victor (aka. NHL and MLB) is all you really need to succeed in this game...

...and to succeed with much less angush--related to spreads and totals, in which your bets are VERY often killed by late-in-the-game "meaningless" [therefore, all the more frustrating] events that have nothing to do with the game's win-loss result.

You can count (and cap) based on the assumption that teams try to WIN...you simply CAN NOT count (so you shouldn't cap) based on team's commitment to "win by" or "come within" a certain margin.

Totals are less objectionable...because you can use models to determine reads on the centre and spread (ie. mean & std. deviation) of each team's historical scoring performance to quantitatively assign value to a book's line, relative to your model...however, these sort of bets still suffer from the uncappable implications of "questionable effort once the game's result is by-and-large decided". So totals are also prone to fail because of meaningless usually-late-in-the-game weird shit.

______________

The implication is that ML bets on NHL and MLB should be the staple of a bettor's "diet" ...but Totals in these two sports suffer much less from questionable-motivation late-game weird shit problems simply because scoring is so much more difficult to accomplish in these two sports than in Basketball and Football where points come in bunches...so they'll be the cause of much less variance from the quantified "centre" of the total-points distribution you used to identify the value of a bet.

So NHL and MLB, focusing on ML-bets, but not ruling out Totals-related bets when value presents itself.

_____________
That's my attempt to state in a nutshelll "Element's Theorum" (i've just noticed that one of SBR's true legends...Deuce...also adheres rather strictly to this betting diet, so it could be "Deuce-Element Theorum").

Anything important that I missed or misconceptions that should be cleared up?
_______________

I originally was going to PM you this little essay...then thought it might help followers to understand why you "limit yourself" to a few markets and bet-types.

...Anyhow, looking forward to the MLB value-grind...

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Great post and thanks for sharing with everyone. MLB and NHL are certainly not glamorous sports for spectating, but for the gambler, there's excellent opportunities to find and bet the value. In order to do this, and I am speaking more so about my own tendencies, I have to typically bet a number that I am comfortable losing. I don't always play by this rule, as demonstrated in my reminiscing about the Jurrjens's first start last year, and another time I bet on Darvish and the Rangers in Minny (should have lost), but it helps to take the 'money pressure' off the decision-making process.

I'll be betting light next week...might even pass on the first two weeks. I feel strong mentally going into this season...haven't wagered that much in the last two months and the times I did, lady luck was on my side. Kraken seems to know hoops and he delivered the forum some winners! Might tail one or two of his tournament plays this week.

As far as the NHL, I might play a few playoff series, or a game here and there, but it's all bases for me at this point.

Again, great post and I look forward to reading yours and others' insight.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

PLAY 5: 2.4 Units Mariners Over 77.5 Wins -120 (Youwager)

[fitguy67]

essential "check this out" page related to exactly THIS stage of THIS thread...

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/sbr-...ortsbook-5751/

[High3rEl3m3nt]

PLAY 6: .5 Units Rockies +110 (Youwager)

[High3rEl3m3nt]

PLAY 6: .5 Units Rockies +110 (Youwager)

0-1 -0.5 units

My only spring training game. Go figure

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Fun article/ roster list for opening day:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...s_mlb&c_id=mlb

[High3rEl3m3nt]

The Rockies' lineup looks nice, considering their under the public's radar. They also have one of the better benches in the NL West. If only they had better pitching.

Also, if this list is accurate, I think the Nats are making a mistake batting Harper 3rd. Maybe in the future, but he's not there yet.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

PLAY 7: 1 Unit Cubs +115 (Heritage)

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Tempted to play the Phillies tomorrow too. Thinking that I may get a better line on them tomorrow.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

PLAY 8: 1 Unit Phillies -104 (Heritage)

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Got to say that I have been impressed with Jakie Bradley Jr's first few at bats. He's got a great eye and was able to lay off some very good sliders. Pretty impressive for about as green of a player as you can get.

[fitguy67]

while things are quiet, at the start of the season...here's something you guys might find both interesting and +EV...

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...1rl-wager.html

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Great share fitguy! Some great contributions

...especially worth visiting and bookmarking the link in post #8.

[BennyBigNuts]

My first futures play will be--I am still debating where I will lock this in at 5dimes, Legends, or Youwager, Padres +1550 +1700 (youwager) to win the NL West. Yes, I know that the NL West features the Dodgers and the reigning W.S. champs, but this team has the right ingredients to be competitive in this division. I will pair up this play with a cover bet on either the Giants or the Dodgers...leaning Giants at the moment. Dodgers have the nice looking lineup, but their rotation is a problem and their bullpen could struggle to hold small leads. This team would win a lot of other divisions, but I don't think they're built to own this division. Some of this team's key pieces are several steps away from showing their counterproductive, toxic selves. I suspect that this team will face some adversity in the season and it will lead to their undoing.

Giants have the bullpen and scrappy hitters, but I suspect their rotation regresses some, causing their BP to handle a greater workload that could catch up with them by late August/ September. The DL bug could hit this team hard this year.

Diamondbacks and Rockies...two teams that I think are heading in the right direction, but need more time. If Rockies hold onto their young guys and get a decent rotation, this team will surprise a lot of folks...certainly underrated in my opinion.

Padres are the poor man's version of the Giants. They're scrappy, not a lot of power, and their pitching is decent--certainly not on the same level as the Giants. This team has the speed to pull off playing small ball. They got off to about the worst start possible last season, but managed to play half decent from the middle on. At the current odds offered and considering the attention that Giants and Dodgers are getting, I think there is some value here with an opportunity later to make a strong cover bet.

PLAY 1: 1.5 Units Padres +1700 to win NL WEST (cover play to come)

PLAY 2: 1.1 Units Baltimore Orioles Under 78.5 wins -110

I waited in anticipation for months for the Orioles win total, waiting to attack the under immediately. Was going to bet a massive chunk (At least for me) and consider it a solid investment pretty much. But the Jays made all those moves and it killed the total I was hoping for of about 81.5 to 82. I ended up passing and not betting under 78.5 because basically the value was gone cuz of the Jays bolstering up their team and crushing the line.
I think the Orioles were the ultimate overachievers last year, and will win 70 games this year going back to form. But the Yankees may be a lot worse as well, ultimately causing me to call it a no-go on 78.5.
BOL on your thread, I'm observing.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

1-1 +0.11 units on the day.

1-2 -0.39 units MLB 2013

Really hope the Cubs give up on using Marmol as a closer.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

PLAY 9: To win 2 units +1.5 Indians -125 (Youwager)

Play 10: 1 unit Rangers Astros Over 8 +100 (Youwager)

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Play 11: To win 1.5 units Mariners TT Over 3 -120 (Heritage)

[High3rEl3m3nt]

2-1 +2.5 Units on the day.

YTD: 3-3 +2.11 Units
Seems like the board was all over the Indians tonight...one of the rare times the majority here cashes

Discovering that Heritage is not that much better than youwager, even with their "reduced juice." Pays to have multiple books. Will be interesting to see what kind of p2p fees these books charge.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Nice work Element.

Good luck going forward.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Play 12: 1 unit KC Royals +134 (Heritage)

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Play 13: .5 unit Royals White Sox Over 8 +123 (Heritage) (Sold a run)