1. #1
    cocknocker
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    Mr. Crumbs Stretch Drive Thread (Woodshed Plays)

    Okay homies here we go. I have identified the following teams as teams that I will ride until the end of the season. I will keep this thread going until the end of the season playing games selected from these teams below until the bitter end! Not much time for small talk.

    1) Boston With a strength of schedule of 5.2 and the 9th rated park factor, the Red Sox are poised to make a push against the Yankees. The pitching staff can make games 7 inning games.

    2)Oakland A's. Strength of schedule 5.1 Okay a bit of a homer pick here, but they can win one out of three the rest of the way in their series. That's basically all that I need as I may chase them a bit. They are young and too stupid to know when to quit. I like that in a team. Their park is great for unders beasue of the extended foul ground, and heavy night air. This means that they will have a lot of close games that they will have a shot of winning late.

    3)Minnesota Twins. Strength of schedule 5.1 Talk about a home field advantage. This team could be a sleeper in their division as they are mostly overlooked. But with numbers like the ones that the Metrodome produce, they will be in a lot of slugfests. They do have a grade A closer in Nathan. If the juice doesn't kill me, I will have fun playing this team down the stretch.

    4)Los Angeles Dodgers. Strength of schedule 5.0 Talk about the juice killing you. They have the best manager that money can buy, and beasts at the plate. If their starting pitching doesn't have any injuries they should go on a tear here as they have only 6 games in September where they play teams over .500. The juice will be high, and I will have to play more runlines than I like, but so what!

    5)Florida Marlins. Strength of schedule 4.9. This team is hot as shit and they get 10 in a game like stepping on a roach. Because of their tweener image, the juice will not be that bad on average. This team will give the Phils a push until the end with great pricing along the way.

    6) Chicago Cubs. Strength of schedule 4.9. The Cubs are out of it, but that doesn't mean that they will not put great talent on the field every night. Lou's boys have underacheived this year to be sure. But with a schedule that has them playing only 1 (a make up game) game against a team with a winning record in their next 21 games, the Cubs can actually stuff the pockets if the pitching holds up.


    So there it is. The majority of my work until the end of the year will be with these six teams. I would like to recruit me a scorekeeper for this project. I am interested in tracking these things

    1) Average amount of viggo I use (EV +/-) while betting

    2) Accurate unit upkeep

    3)A rolling account/record of the plays and results PER TEAM, so that I can know when to get off of that particular team.

    4)I want a each time a team looses 3 games in a row, the last loss by more than 3 runs, and they are at home. I will play those games for more than the usual amount.

    5) I want a if a team has scored a run in 6 seperate innings in their previous game and is at home. I really like this play, and I am glad that Panekkk hipped me to it. I can't quite recall the author of this type of play, but it is brilliant and it works.


    My objective to hit at least at 56% and still make a tidy profit in the process. I think that these teams will push the teams that are above them in the standings, and in the case of the Dodgers, I sincerely feel that after this latest series against the Rockies has energized them, and with beating the runner-up, they created some more distance in the race. The Dodgers are the class of the National League followed by the Cardinals.
    Points Awarded:

    Dexter gave cocknocker 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    ragiche gave cocknocker 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    SBRforum Staff gave cocknocker 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.

    darkenergy gave cocknocker 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    Dexter
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    week 1 ncaa thread is up..

    NCAA Underground Leans - Week 1 (9/3-9/6)

    ***********************

    NFL Underground Leans - Week 1 (9/10-9/13)

    NFL week 1 thread up as well

  3. #3
    cocknocker
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    Alright. So now that I have my outline, I will either play or fade or play a total in the games of these teams so far the lines are up and I will select from one

    Dodgers -175
    Reds+167 o/u 9

    Padres+137
    Marlins-145 o/u 8.5

    Blue Birds+210
    Red Sox-228 o/u 9

    Rangers-120
    Twins+112 o/u 9.5

    A's +130
    Angels-138 o/u 10.5

    Mets+222
    Cubs-240 NO TOTAL

    So obviously I have a lot of line watching to do overnight. I will select my plays from these games and totals.

  4. #4
    cocknocker
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    Right on, Dex. I am over here trying to get my stretch run plan ready homes. I haven't even looked at the NCAA yet, if you can believe it. I guess I'd better get on it.

  5. #5
    cocknocker
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    Well I already made my first play (See F*ck You, Pay Me Thread Post #123) and took the A's +240 for the series versus the Angels.

  6. #6
    texhooper
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    this is good stuff...this is the kind of homework i need to be putting in.

    but here is what i do have--dex and his revenge plays have captivated me, and lincecum v jimenez 2 (in which jiminez beat linsuckum in game one) is on deck for tomorrow. that was ubaldo's second straight win against the giants this season. we have lincecum at a very short number (i just played it at -126) at home after they pretty much threw the series to the rockies last weekend in colorado. the rockies just lost their series to the dodgers, which makes them somewhat dangerous, but the giants just got their shit pushed in at the hands of the d-bags 11-0 at home. i don't think they will go out quietly tomorrow with ace #1 on the mound at home vs. a team they're competing with for the wild card after such an embarrassment at home.

  7. #7
    cocknocker
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    Okay, Pat Misch has 13 walks against 13 strikeouts..He was called in to fill Santana's spot. He is facing the Cubs after a home loss. Moreover than that, he is facing Lilly after 3 straight losses personally, all of which were on the road. he is 2-0 in his last two home starts winning by an average of 6.5 to 2. I smell runline f*ckers!

    Cubs-1.5 -115 Already played!


    Homer Bailey.... The last time he faced the Dodgers the score was 12-3 and he didn't win. Matter of fact, he has 3 out of his last starts with 5 earned runs. Okay so basically we already know that he is gonna give up 5 runs to the Dodgers... Ethier is hot..I don't know, I think that I like the team total a little mo than the side. The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last 5 games at Cincy scoring 5.2 runs on average. Take out a 1 run effort and the Dodgers average 6.25 in their games there. I have this game pegged at a close affair, so I don't necessarily like the runline in this game. I am gonna go for the run support

    Dodgers Team Total to go over 5 -110

    It's pretty obvious that the Rangers bats have warmed up. Duensing is not a strikeout pitcher with 25 strikeouts against only 18 bases on balls. Well pitchers who allow a lot of walks get their caps peeled back against the Rangers professional hitters. The beat goes on. Gonna roll with the over in this game as there is a reason as to why it is so high.

    Texas/Twins over 9.5 +100

    That's it for now

  8. #8
    Vincepcion
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    appreciate the good work
    will def be tailing, my bankroll could use a boost

  9. #9
    Dexter
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    Quote Originally Posted by cocknocker View Post
    Right on, Dex. I am over here trying to get my stretch run plan ready homes. I haven't even looked at the NCAA yet, if you can believe it. I guess I'd better get on it.
    its here - next week. the season snuck up on us.

    lets get some pc plays. i could use a *paid for* vaca

  10. #10
    cocknocker
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    I certainly hope that the values for the Cubs get better now that they are out of the race. I intend to ride them for a stretch here and I don't want to always have to pay them on the runline!

  11. #11
    thebarbshow
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    Hey cocknocker, Been following you for awhile now and have seen your amazing way of beating up the books. Just now joined so I can join the blogs. Got a question. Was just curious on your wagering. Are all your plays the same units unless you specify other? in other words, are your 3 plays today all of the same values. Look forward to getting back on track with you! Great A's play last night, first one on the boat with you, 1-0 baby!
    Last edited by thebarbshow; 08-28-09 at 11:47 AM. Reason: wanted to add more

  12. #12
    cocknocker
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    Well when I play a series, I want to keep in mind that the jewels are at the far end of the series with the bonus payday. So I try to keep my unit measures straight for the plays and play all of the plays evenly. However, when I do go heavy I will label the play just like that (HEAVY). With football being back in the picture now, I doubt that I will make nother HEAVY baseball play this year. For the most part I will play baseball games at $300.00 apiece until the end of the season.

  13. #13
    solobass
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    Today

    Oakland A's +140 at the hilton

  14. #14
    solobass
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    Padres
    Astros
    Phillies

  15. #15
    cocknocker
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    Good luck today, solo!

  16. #16
    oda11
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    What is up Miafia!

    Good luck with your project CK, sorry I can't be the score keeper because I know absolutely nothing about baseball numbers lol.

  17. #17
    ragiche
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    Nice writeups CK. I only have 1 play for today.I don't want to play the sides right now as they are out of control.Gonna watch the result today and play some tomorrow.

    Astros/Snakes Over 9 (HEAVY)

    GL guys.

  18. #18
    Mr Handicapable
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    CK,

    I like the Rangers/Twins Over 9.5 tonite too! Rangers should score and Minnesota's lefty sticks on that turf might throw Hunter off his game a little bit! Dodgers could easily light up Bailey but he definitely has the arm of a #1 pick and he was regularly hitting 96-97 in his last start! LA has played 8 straight under double digits and Billingsley owns the Reds so I like Under 9 in this one!

  19. #19
    JIMMYG13
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    Ck, been following u for a while !! Just want to say thanks for taking the time to post your plays and share your thoughts with the site!!! It is appreciated... Now lets make some cash!!!

  20. #20
    cocknocker
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    Ready for the Homer Bailey guy to serve up the go-fer balls!

  21. #21
    JIMMYG13
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    nice cubs !!! winner!!!!

  22. #22
    cocknocker
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    1st inning runs are getting it done today!

  23. #23
    solobass
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    wow padres looking ok early! also i took the blue jays at the last minute at the window for some fun money. CK do not lose your grip man there is still PLENTY of cash to be made in baseball. baseball is king and will keep food on the table for many years to come.

  24. #24
    solobass
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    .....and no kidding, first innings are looking good today!

  25. #25
    kmarinouofm
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    CK looks like my Marlins are doing better then you predicted the 2nd would look like for them... really impressed with this team and the heart they play with..

  26. #26
    cocknocker
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    Okay for today

    Twins+101
    A's+1.5-115
    Cubs-1.5 -120


    Giants+100 Renegade Pick

  27. #27
    oda11
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    Love the Giants pick

    Good luck today CK.

  28. #28
    solobass
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    ok uncle CK i need some guidance. first, nice call on the giants. the oddsmakers were trying to get by and you caught them. look, the odds are so out of whack right now. ever since preseason football came on the board, favorites are far steeper (not based on merit). underdog odds have skyrocketed as well. is this typical of the season long cycle? i do know heavy favorites hit higher than historical averages earlier in the season (lot of 3 teamers cashed here) are they trying to make their money back from that position? i have the overnights sheet in front of me and the brewers -240? what a joke! apparently gallardo has been bleesed by the holy see or something.

    what gives?

  29. #29
    solobass
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    ok uncle CK i need some guidance. first, nice call on the giants. the oddsmakers were trying to get by and you caught them. look, the odds are so out of whack right now. ever since preseason football came on the board, favorites are far steeper (not based on merit). underdog odds have skyrocketed as well. is this typical of the season long cycle? i do know heavy favorites hit higher than historical averages earlier in the season (lot of 3 teamers cashed here) are they trying to make their money back from that position? i have the overnights sheet in front of me and the brewers -240? what a joke! apparently gallardo has been bleesed by the holy see or something.

    what gives?

  30. #30
    JIMMYG13
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    Nice picks ck let's cash!!

  31. #31
    ragiche
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    Plays for today.

    Cubbies RL (HEAVY) Tailing CK.

    Brewcrew RL (HEAVY) My pick.

    GL today guys .


  32. #32
    solobass
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    i love it when a team i bet on does not even show an inkling of trying. i am used to that in nba....but the white sox.....stupid play by me there.

  33. #33
    JIMMYG13
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    Solo i played them small as well!!! Mitre has not been that great thought a small play was worth it!!! Yankees are just playing real well!!!

  34. #34
    solobass
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    1 hitting a team averaging 4.62 runs a game mitre must have went to church last sunday. honestly though i learn more from the losses. i would like to win every game but when you win everything goes as planned. i am working on some stuff as usual. question for the board what is the best way to punish the oddsmakers for the shlock they are putting out on a daily basis? some of the heavy favorites look good and some 3 or 4 team parlays might be prudent today. i am laying off the phillies though, cliff lee has to lose sometime. i won my money on philly yesterday as a +105 dog.

  35. #35
    JIMMYG13
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    i kinda like lowe at that price..

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