[Kirby Zhang]

Today IS the Day, No Games, All Business.

So I'm going to spend less time book keeping and more time doing write-ups, We've got a lot of ground to cover so let's get started.

This month 120-116
Total 471-408
Blue Confidence Record: 129-93-1 (58.25)

Kirby Zhang Confidence Ranking.

1. Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh -Philadelphia -1.5
   
2. Houston @ st. Louis - St. Louis -1.5
3. Oakland @ Los Angles Angels - LA Angels -181
4. New York Mets @ Florida - Florida -196
5. Los Angeles @ Colorado - Los Angeles +136

Betting Strategy

Okay, so here we are again, early games, late games and late late games. Here's what I think is the best strategy for tomorrow. We should kill the books tomorrow.

Tomorrow one of the earliest games is Mets @ Florida, So with that said take the Florida side on this game, and combine it with St. Louis runline for value, as an insurance policy also take a safety parlay, just in case something happens with the runline in St. Louis You're early bets should look like this

Bet 1
Mets @ Florida - Florida -191
Houston @ St. Louis - St. Louis -1.5

Bet 2 (Safety)
St. Louis -300
Philadelphia -187
Los Angeles Angels -181

Your safety parlay will have one game from EACH swing of games that day, Now if Florida for some reason messes things up there is no need to worry, your safety still covers the St. Louis win, because the Marlins are not included, If St. Louis wins, but doesn't not cover, don't worry you are covered by the safety still. The unlikely thing is that the Cardinals will lose at home, with Carpenter on the mound. I don't' think so

Now, here is where we must make some decisions, like I said before this is just like day trading and the decisions you make here are going to affect your end of day balance. By the time it is 3PM eastern standard, you should sort of know how things are going with the Florida game, But regardless of what happens you must still make this bet, you just have to change the units you put.

I suggest waiting until 255PM. if at this time Florida looks like it's going to cover, but St. Louis is in a tight game with Houston, up your next bet .5 units, If everything looks fine, just stay conservative. If Florida DOES NOT cover, it doesn't really matter what happens with St. Louis, does it? so change the units, add one more unit than what you would've bet.

Bet 3
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies - Los Angeles Dodgers +136
Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh -Philadelphia -1.5

Okay, now wait for the Phillies game. If the Dodgers lose, then before the phillies game make one last attempt

Take however many units you are down, and place it on Phillies -1.5

Don't worry about the Angels because the safety should take care of that, no need to place redundant bets.

All in all you should do 3 units on the Safety and 2 on everything else. Hope this helps.

write-ups soon

[Mikail]

Kirby, I like the first 4 but am worried about the Dodgers over the Rockies! Maybe your write up will change my mind!

[Kirby Zhang]

Vincent Padilla to Show Colorado What Pitching In The AL Was Really Like

Los Angeles @ Colorado
The Pick: Los Angeles +136

Remember what happened when earlier this week a American League pitcher that wasn't so hot in the AL east came and pitched in the NL? Oh yeah John Smolts, hitless until the 6th inning fronting St. Louis. yeah... that's going to be the situation tomorrow. You talk about rested, Padilla is going to be rested, and not going to have any intentions of hitting anyone with baseballs either. Although it's going to be his first start I would say his assignments were a lot more difficult in Texas. Pitching against AL teams isn't exactly a walk in the park, even Kansas City can find ways to give you problems on some days. So this is my feeling on the matter, I think the Rockies are a little worn out, it showed today, when they were unable to really put any offense together, getting canned by the Douchers (dodger's I mean.. I hate them) 6-1. It's going to be okay though. Tomorrow should be a tough game, the Dodgers are trying to protect, and the Rockies are trying to crawl closer to the top spot, but I think De La Rosa probably has used up his last "lifelines" after that little fourteenth inning stunt last time. De La Rosa's pitching wasn't exactly a beauty last time either, in fact it was the reason for all that drama vs San Fransisco. He gave up six runs in six innings against San Francisco on Saturday, but still got credit for the 14-11 victory. De La Rosa hasn't gotten any such breaks against the Dodgers. He's 0-4 with a 7.99 ERA in five career starts against them, including 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA in two this season -- both Rockies losses. Los Angeles first baseman James Loney is 7 for 11 with a home run and a double against De La Rosa, and outfielder Matt Kemp is 6 for 13 with a homer and two doubles off the Colorado southpaw. The Dodgers will counter with Vicente Padilla, who signed a minor league contract last Wednesday after getting released by Texas. The right-hander was 8-6 with a 4.92 ERA in 18 starts with the Rangers. Look for the Dodgers to take the Rockies tomorrow, and win the series, as much as I hate to say it.. it's going to happen.

[Kirby Zhang]

Kirby, I like the first 4 but am worried about the Dodgers over the Rockies! Maybe your write up will change my mind!

why don't you take a look right there!

[Kirby Zhang]

More tomorrow, Chocolate time!

[seanjohn007]

good luck tomorrow kirby

[Kirby Zhang]

Florida looks a little overpriced anyone agree.

[Mikail]

Florida looks a little overpriced anyone agree.

somewhat. Also worried about the Cardinals RL. Last two games decided by a run!

[Kirby Zhang]

that's why this game will not be.

[Mikail]

Marlins RL is the play! What do ya think Kirby? Also you saying play Cards ML?

[Mikail]

My plays- Marlins RL, Cards ML and Phillies ML. I went with the Moneyline with the cards. I know you say this game won't be a 1 run game, but just to be safe... BOL!

[TheLemonDropKid]

Hey Kirby.......I've been watching your thread over the past week or so and I appreciate your write-ups. Very insightful and entertaining.

I'm a little concerned about this Florida pick though bro.

From what I can see, the Mets haven't lost 6 in a row in 4 years and the Marlins haven't swept the Mets since 2004.

Are these legitimate concerns and does it affect your opinion on this game?

[TheLemonDropKid]

Another concern I have is with the Cards pick. With only 17% of the public on the Astros, the line has gone down from HOU +280 to HOU +240. That's a pretty significant RLM!

Don't get me wrong......I'm not trying to be a "nay-sayer" as I originally liked both of the these plays as well, before I even visited your thread today. But after doing a little digging I found these areas of concern.

[Mr Handicapable]

I like the Dodgers/Rockies Over 10! LA owns De La Rosa and I can't see Padilla being real sharp in this one either? He normally throws the ball all over the place and Colorado will wait him out and get ahead in the count!

2 other day games look interesting to me! I would look at NY/Texas Under 10 as Burnett has been pretty good at home and Feldman has been pretty good this year too! Perhaps a big bat or two gets a day off too w/a day game after a night game?

The play I'm focusing on though is the Reds +148 and RL -140. The Brewers are in a funk dropping 7 of 10 while veteran Scott Rolen has provided a spark for the Reds who've won 3 straight since his return off the DL! The Reds don't have much this year but they do have a nice bullpen advantage over the Brewers and I like the Reds starter Lehr better today as well! Dave Bush has lost 4 straight decisions and has a 6.87 career ERA vs the Reds! Justin Lehr got roughed up his last start but in the previous 3 starts totaled 21 IP w/only 4 ER (1.71 ERA). This is a day game after 2 straight extra inning night games so once again I'm checking out who gets the day off before playing this one? If the Reds are rolling out Votto, Rolen, and Nix then I'm playing 2.5 units on RL -145 and 1.5 units +148!!

[Kirby Zhang]

Hey Kirby.......I've been watching your thread over the past week or so and I appreciate your write-ups. Very insightful and entertaining.

I'm a little concerned about this Florida pick though bro.

From what I can see, the Mets haven't lost 6 in a row in 4 years and the Marlins haven't swept the Mets since 2004.

Are these legitimate concerns and does it affect your opinion on this game?

Hmm.. These are valid concerns let me address them. What I have highlighted above are noted as long term statistical trends, Although I find them interesting, and helpful I feel like this situation might not be appropriate. The Florida Marlins have the best home record right now, the Mets are pleagued with injury, thus I've derrived from my pick from a short term statistical point. I feel that in Baseball short term stats are more important. Let me expamlify this: if Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are great pitchers, but RECENTLY San Fransisco has not provided the run support then backing thoes two solid pitchers would be bad bets. However in the Long run it may look like that Matt Cain has done phoenomally. Does that make sense? That's why when you go and resarach statistics, they only give you a pitcher's last three games. Although it's important to know the Statistical stan-points of the long term, use it, but don't base your solution off of it. Now allow us to apply it to this situation. If Florida was playing against a guy who's never won a game before, and never even played on a major level before, and florida has the best home record, and the Mets are injured, regardless of the above information would you till be weary of the pick? I'd say the answer is no, you wouldn't be. You'd be fine with the Florida pick... then, with that said there really isn't a need to worry. As far as St. Louis goes, I don't think that Brian Moeler has ever faced someone like Chris Carpter, the reverse Line Movement is because vegas understands that although the public is on one side, there is still the possiblity that Houston might win, thus, it would be bad business to make it St. Louis -400... who would take that line? understand? with it being less then 3 hours away this line movement is called a "incentive move" designed to draw more people in, they do thier best to draw the people who wanted to bet, but hadn't gotten the better price yet. If you don't believe me, wait until right before the game starts, look at the line then.

I hope this helps

Kirby

[Kirby Zhang]

I like the Dodgers/Rockies Over 10! LA owns De La Rosa and I can't see Padilla being real sharp in this one either? He normally throws the ball all over the place and Colorado will wait him out and get ahead in the count!

2 other day games look interesting to me! I would look at NY/Texas Under 10 as Burnett has been pretty good at home and Feldman has been pretty good this year too! Perhaps a big bat or two gets a day off too w/a day game after a night game?

The play I'm focusing on though is the Reds +148 and RL -140. The Brewers are in a funk dropping 7 of 10 while veteran Scott Rolen has provided a spark for the Reds who've won 3 straight since his return off the DL! The Reds don't have much this year but they do have a nice bullpen advantage over the Brewers and I like the Reds starter Lehr better today as well! Dave Bush has lost 4 straight decisions and has a 6.87 career ERA vs the Reds! Justin Lehr got roughed up his last start but in the previous 3 starts totaled 21 IP w/only 4 ER (1.71 ERA). This is a day game after 2 straight extra inning night games so once again I'm checking out who gets the day off before playing this one? If the Reds are rolling out Votto, Rolen, and Nix then I'm playing 2.5 units on RL -145 and 1.5 units +148!!

Mr. Handicapper, I appreciate your input, and I totally agree, If I were you however, I'd stay away from the runline, -140 isn't worth the points, let's be frank here, Cincinnati and Milwaukee aren't exactly the most pitching friendly environments, and Milwaukee likes to blow leads more than hookers blow johns. With that said, If you're going to take the Reds, have the balls, and take them with the extra juice. Here, I think it is a good play, After the Brew Crew got swept by the cheapest team in baseball post-trading all their players away, I don't think they'll win against the Reds. Regardless of the outcome this won't be a close game, It'll be three points either way

Cincinnati Red Bitches @ Milwaukee Gaylords - Red Bitches +138

[Kirby Zhang]

By the way I NEVER Sleep.

[SmackdownV]

All Right Kirby.........

Two unit Parlay:
Florida ML
St. Louis RL

and a three gamer with one of my own plays for 1 Unit:
Florida ML
St. Louis RL
Yankees over 9.5 Nippert got SHELLED the last time out in Boston...........

As for the Rockies discussion.......

It's either a Rockies win or the over for me............

[TheLemonDropKid]

Hmm.. These are valid concerns let me address them. What I have highlighted above are noted as long term statistical trends, Although I find them interesting, and helpful I feel like this situation might not be appropriate. The Florida Marlins have the best home record right now, the Mets are pleagued with injury, thus I've derrived from my pick from a short term statistical point. I feel that in Baseball short term stats are more important. Let me expamlify this: if Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are great pitchers, but RECENTLY San Fransisco has not provided the run support then backing thoes two solid pitchers would be bad bets. However in the Long run it may look like that Matt Cain has done phoenomally. Does that make sense? That's why when you go and resarach statistics, they only give you a pitcher's last three games. Although it's important to know the Statistical stan-points of the long term, use it, but don't base your solution off of it. Now allow us to apply it to this situation. If Florida was playing against a guy who's never won a game before, and never even played on a major level before, and florida has the best home record, and the Mets are injured, regardless of the above information would you till be weary of the pick? I'd say the answer is no, you wouldn't be. You'd be fine with the Florida pick... then, with that said there really isn't a need to worry. As far as St. Louis goes, I don't think that Brian Moeler has ever faced someone like Chris Carpter, the reverse Line Movement is because vegas understands that although the public is on one side, there is still the possiblity that Houston might win, thus, it would be bad business to make it St. Louis -400... who would take that line? understand? with it being less then 3 hours away this line movement is called a "incentive move" designed to draw more people in, they do thier best to draw the people who wanted to bet, but hadn't gotten the better price yet. If you don't believe me, wait until right before the game starts, look at the line then.

I hope this helps

Kirby

That does help.........thanks for your time and input bro!

[Kirby Zhang]

Mets Are Fish Food. Old People In Florida Expected to Get Excited From Marlins Win, Tonight Going Big On Bingo!

New York Mets @ Florida
The Pick: Florida -196

Okay, let me make some things clear, people in New York, don't eat fish, they eat pizza. What the hell does that mean? Well, It means nothing, I just wasted four seconds of your time. Your welcome. That's probably not true, but what is true is this: today Florida will take care of business. Florida has the best home record against a baseball team that is just messed up. The Injuries aren't funny anymore, it's pathetic. In baseball we talk about motivation. Here's the motivation, Florida needs to take care of business if they are going to see any playoff life. They know that the Rockies lost last night, and yes, they won. What better to take advantage of a another day of winning. You understand? if there was one team that shouldn't give a **** it's the NY Mets, Their concern is just keeping everybody healthy for the remainder of the year, **** the playoffs. In life there are people trying to make more and more money everyday, and then there are people that are just trying to stay alive. The Mets will give the ball to Tim Redding (1-4, 6.10 ERA), who is coming off a solid return to a starting role.The Mets, who had demoted Redding to the bullpen, re-inserted him into the rotation following the release of Livan Hernandez. In his first start since July 2, Redding gave up one hit and three walks in five scoreless innings Saturday against Philadelphia, though the right-hander didn't get a decision in the 4-1 loss. The reason Redding was demoted is his inconsistency, I'd like to see how he performs against some of the hottest hitters in the National League. Redding was tagged for a season-high seven runs and eight hits in four innings of a 7-3 loss to the Marlins on May 30. He is 1-5 with an 8.73 ERA in seven starts against them since the start of last season. Similarly to Redding, Anibal Sanchez (2-4, 4.97) takes the mound for Florida seeking his second straight solid outing since returning to his team's rotation. After being activated from the 60-day DL to make his first start since June 2, Sanchez allowed one run and two hits with seven strikeouts in six innings of Friday's 5-3 win over Atlanta. The right-hander, returning from a sprained right shoulder, held the Braves hitless through 5 1/3 innings. Needless to say although Sanchez has done a great job, we can't really expect too much, why Florida then? because, if both starting pitchers are shitty, you have to pick the better team. The Marlins have .400 hitters, and The Mets have about 400 injuries. Look for the Metropolitans to be fish food today.

[Kirby Zhang]

That does help.........thanks for your time and input bro!

Best of luck to you brother!

[Kirby Zhang]

we are five minutes away. I hope it is a good start. Lets make some money!

[darkenergy]

Hmm.. These are valid concerns let me address them. What I have highlighted above are noted as long term statistical trends, Although I find them interesting, and helpful I feel like this situation might not be appropriate. The Florida Marlins have the best home record right now, the Mets are pleagued with injury, thus I've derrived from my pick from a short term statistical point. I feel that in Baseball short term stats are more important. Let me expamlify this: if Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are great pitchers, but RECENTLY San Fransisco has not provided the run support then backing thoes two solid pitchers would be bad bets. However in the Long run it may look like that Matt Cain has done phoenomally. Does that make sense? That's why when you go and resarach statistics, they only give you a pitcher's last three games. Although it's important to know the Statistical stan-points of the long term, use it, but don't base your solution off of it. Now allow us to apply it to this situation. If Florida was playing against a guy who's never won a game before, and never even played on a major level before, and florida has the best home record, and the Mets are injured, regardless of the above information would you till be weary of the pick? I'd say the answer is no, you wouldn't be. You'd be fine with the Florida pick... then, with that said there really isn't a need to worry. As far as St. Louis goes, I don't think that Brian Moeler has ever faced someone like Chris Carpter, the reverse Line Movement is because vegas understands that although the public is on one side, there is still the possiblity that Houston might win, thus, it would be bad business to make it St. Louis -400... who would take that line? understand? with it being less then 3 hours away this line movement is called a "incentive move" designed to draw more people in, they do thier best to draw the people who wanted to bet, but hadn't gotten the better price yet. If you don't believe me, wait until right before the game starts, look at the line then.

I hope this helps

Kirby

Interesting angle Kirby.
I've looking at the line history for this game with all major books (pinacle, Olympus, SI TEST, 5dimes, etc) and saw this pattern; around 9:00am this morning when the majority of the books dropped St. Louis below 300 to around -285 to 265, books actually get more bettors on Houston side ( I guess some of players like the RLM type of line).
So I guess, if they take St. Louis to -400 that would created more bettors on one side, they rather create this RLM to get someone on Houston side.
I already booked St. Louis @ -265 this morning, thinking about hedge back half if the line continue to drop below 260 in the next 5-10 minutes. This line is crazy.
BOL to all.

[Panekkkk]

Also big RLM on Philly.

Took them last night at -180, with over 70% of the public on them, the line has dropped overnight to -175. That's huge RLM considering that EVERY stat favours Philly in this one.... Wondering if I should hedge.

[SmackdownV]

Yikes!

The Mets came to play today!

Yikes!

[Kirby Zhang]

Also big RLM on Philly.

Took them last night at -180, with over 70% of the public on them, the line has dropped overnight to -175. That's huge RLM considering that EVERY stat favours Philly in this one.... Wondering if I should hedge.

only a small move I don't recommend hedging.

[Mikail]

Fuk Mets!

[Kirby Zhang]

its early... it's going to be okay.

[Kirby Zhang]

thank the ****ing buddha, they got rid of Sanchez.

[darkenergy]

No sh*t, look like most dogs show up today..hold on to your seats, look like gonna be a rough ride.
I only have UNDER Yanks/TEX and St. Luois for afternoon.
BOL everyone.

[Mikail]

Marlins game looks about done!!! 5-1 5th inning

[Mikail]

Yeah it's done!!!!!!!!! 7-1

[Panekkkk]

Yet another game that makes you wonder. Strange how all the big chalk games have such "unbelievable" events occur. The unbelievable event = Carpenter walking Brian Moehler... The guy is hitting at 0.29... JUST LOB A STRIKE IN AND LET HIM HIT IT. Was Carpenter that shaken that he couldn't get a strike across the plate against the equivalent of a rooted maple tree standing next to home plate? Makes you question things...

Thankfully I didn't bet on this game, only in some small parlays. I'd be stewing if I had bet heavy though.

[Mikail]

Yet another game that makes you wonder. Strange how all the big chalk games have such "unbelievable" events occur. The unbelievable event = Carpenter walking Brian Moehler... The guy is hitting at 0.29... JUST LOB A STRIKE IN AND LET HIM HIT IT. Was Carpenter that shaken that he couldn't get a strike across the plate against the equivalent of a rooted maple tree standing next to home plate? Makes you question things...

Thankfully I didn't bet on this game, only in some small parlays. I'd be stewing if I had bet heavy though.

Yeah I bet small myself. I beginning to wonder. These games all month have been mostly strange! That is why I asked in an earlier thread if baseball games are on occasion fixed or purposely thrown?

[Panekkkk]

Well, it's difficult to say. It's naive to think that fixing doesn't occur (it's been exposed in various sports over the years). To what extent it affects baseball and how is impossible to say and will never be exposed. I personally think the manager, starting pitcher and closer (I guess all are obvious) have the most influence on deciding a game. Lately on a lot of high consensus games I've been noticing managers leaving in pitchers that are WELL PAST their pitch count and that pitcher gets shelled and his team loses the game. It keeps occurring in situations where any rational person would think to bring in the bullpen. Sure, this kind of thing happens ALL THE TIME simply by chance but if fixing occurs even in 0.5% of all games, that's a substantial bias and can affect your bankroll greatly.

This is why you'll notice a lot of bettors stay away from high consensus games (games where the public is over 80% on one side).