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Cocknocker's 1st Inning System. When did...
you lose your 4k?
I lost mine somewhere in mid July. This system never had a chance. I was using 4 different books to get the best lines each day on this prop bet and still there was no way you were going to make a profit from this. No matter the permutations you make to this system the books are already ahead of you. I respect cocknocker's capping skills but this system was doomed from the start.
I will say those dudes BlackbeltCappers seem to have the first inning shit down. Albeit its a chase but there record says 88-0 and I started following it a few days ago and its paying so far. In fact yesterday all 4 plays hit with score in the first inning. I only played the first one because once it hits your supposed to stop. Today the 3rd one and 4th one hit on no score in the first and I played em both for some extra cash.
yeah but I'm talking about cocknocker's system. where you bet yes on every game. saying how his system would yield big returns. just wondering when everyone else who followed lost their 4k.
It would be interesting to see what CK says
Brandon, did you buy their system, or getting it some other way? I saw the discussion of this on the JM thread but could not really make heads or tails about gaining access to the plays.Originally Posted by brandon m
Appreciate any tip you might provide.
johnny did you wait until the second month to start and move up a half unit in august i havent been doing this but its seems to have picked up steam in august
Yes followed it exactly as presented. There is NO way you wouldn't have lost your 4k by mid July. So you never would have made it to august. That being said it has still been a losing bet in august. I have done it everyday, had to put more money in, and it's a losing system. I've done it-it doesn't work. There is no need to see what rooster says, I did it the system doesn't work. If he comes in hear and says otherwise he is flat lying.
is it a system you learn.. or do they just send you picks daily?
They send the picks out daily pretty much they pick one game in each timezone slot and its either yes or no for all 4 plays until it hits, using lebucher betting strategy. The way I looked at it was anything that is 80+-0 is worth a shot so I put up the 150 to see what it was about and possibly see if I can figure out how there capping them. They also have some other systems that seem to be doing well.
Why does everyone who wants to talk sh*t always immediately drop the knocker part of the name??...rude!
not really talking shit. just asking when other people lost their money using his system. his name is long. unfortunately for him an easy abbreviation is rooster.
systems like that are long term (long term meaning multi-year) losers as adjustments are made by the books and the variables of numbers equation.. short term success is of course very possible.. the 1st inning prop w/ certain teams though is the way to go but again the juice rises on the teams that accomplish this feat often.. theres no golden egg people
rjohnny, try the lines out at Linesmaker.com and then you will see why you have lost your shirt. It's not because of my system, it's because you got shitty lines
Notice how my lines average less than-120 with ease and matter of fact most of the lines you will see there in the morning are + money. Learn how to shop for value rjohnny
if you had read the whole thread and the research that people did early in the season, you would have seen it wasn't possible to make money on the system using the average book's lines.
i saw that and i didn't waste 4 grand.
corona is correct. I did the research and told anyone that would listen that the system was doomed since the beginning. CK claimed most of the lines will be + money. As soon as it was obvious that it was not the case it was simple math to know you would go broke.
A lot of different "filters" have been added to try to make it profitable. Much like JM comes up with a new bullshit filter as soon as one of his series lose and then claims they are undefeated.
Don't waste your time line shopping, unless you can get + lines (which you cant) you will not win playing this "system".
No it was because of your system. YES is only occurring around 52% of the time. Even with minimal juice you are losing. I was using a combination of 4 books. sportsbook/betus/bookmaker/bodog getting the best lines out there at different times throughout the day. your system sucked! and was a losing proposition. live and learn. But it would be nice to admit you were wrong considering you were telling people they would end up with 100k if they followed your simple system. I think you said something like an easy way to make money over your morning cup of coffee.
Sorry but to say that you are just lying to yourself. Why can't you just admit your system didn't work?
Cheme- You were right. Unfortunately some of us have to learn through experience. thanks for looking out though.
Wake up in the morning and look at the kind of lines that I get and then you be the judge. I play at positive lines and you don't. It's just that simple. Each and every last book that you named has an average juice of over -135 or MORE. You are making a value judgement based upon the fact that you got shitty lines from shitty books. Meanwhile as you guys were crying I was playing mine at the lines you will start to see if you chart the vig at my book versus yours. Then the fact that you are playing the -135 or more plays show you are an idiot and didn't listen from the jump.
I never play any game or wager for more than -135 to begin with. What makes you play a first inning bet for that kind of vig? You were chasing a pipe dream. I stated back then that only a fool would play a first inning prop wager for that kind of money. You will note when you start to look at my lines that there are very few if any that are -130. See the difference between you and me is that I paid attention to the fine print. I am selective about how I play them. I play the -130's flat and the rest under that for my mark. Anything above -130 doesn't get played. It's an idiot move to pay -140 or some old berzerk number like that for something that is supposed to be fun.
Now can you or cheme say truthfully that you played it with the filters I outlined on the thread so long ago? For some reason I don't think so. I think rjohnny was playing with sportbook/betus/bookmaker/bodog lines and getting killed. I know for a fact that cheme was getting killed because he was complaining when everybody jumped over on Greek right along with his ass. You guys aren't sharp bettors and that's why you get the results you get. If you used my filter on those sorry ass books you guys use you would only make one first inning wager a day.
The truth is you guys didn't read the instructions and certainly didn't pay attention to the adjustments. The system works fine when played with appropriate lines and in the appropriate manner.
Do yourself a favor and look at the lines on Linesmaker for one week and compare them to what you've been playing the number at and laugh at how you've been taken to the cleaners smply because you didn't do your homework when searching for a sportbook.
Unfortunately for you I started with a bankroll of 9 dimes. For some reason I still have more than that in my kitty. So your 52% rate is incorrect when applied to my system, and rather it's based upon you playing all of the games regardless of the line size and paying -135 and more vigorish damnear EVERY play.
Ever heard of the College World Series? Did you bet those games? Are you doubling up in live baseball games too? Man rjohnny I think that you didn't play things the way that they are supposed to be played. I doubt very seriously that you have lost more than 4-5 live games this year doing the system. Every ESPN game or FOX game is hitting by the third inning johnny and cheme. You guys are bad students
I was up around 6.5k in May.
June was a bad month and lost me 6k. And July wasn't anything special but still ended up being $500 or so up.
I haven't done it in Aug but plan to play it in Sep (which has historically been a big month)
I started with a 5k bankroll and while it did dip below that for a while, I'm still up a bit.
Moreover, I didn't even do live chasing like CK does and played every game at whatever odds were given.
I mentioned this earlier, but I guess no one paid attention. The 1st innings odds are tied to the O/U total for the game. This is a rough estimation and the line is usually around this when it opens.
7 runs -> +115
7.5 runs -> +110
8 runs -> +105
8.5 runs -> +100
9 runs -> -110
9.5 runs -> -120
10 runs -> -130
10.5 runs -> -140
11+ runs -> -150
Anyway, 2009 just seems to be a not so profitable year for the system like 2002.
But I'm not sure how you lost 4k unless you didn't start on May 1. The first two weeks of May itself resulted in a 6k gain.
aneurysm00-yes it did run up in may hitting at 58%. but June and July and now August are terrible bringing the overall win % to around 52%. The average line is not around even money it is more around -110 to -115. With those lines and 52% YOU ARE LOSING.
BTW-is that how they figure the lines out for the prop bet...who knew!? OF COURSE THAT'S HOW THEY FIGURE IT OUT...
Even us "square" bettors know linesmaker is in the Jazette family just as sportsbook. THEY HAVE THE SAME PROP LINES!! You'd think a self proclaimed "sharp" would know that. Not only am I getting the same lines as you I'm getting better lines because I compare those with 3 other books daily. So using the book as an excuse is ridiculous. Your system didn't work and when you argue it you just look stupid. You can't win money when something happens 52% of the time and your average line on your winning wagers is around -110. Simple as that.
Last edited by rjohnny; 08-21-09 at 01:30 PM.
"Ah yes boys and girls today is the day for me to unveil my baseball system...
Each and every year MLB has 300 or so more times than not when a run will score during the 1st inning. To take the wager for a run to score in the first inning is basically going against the mindset of the public, who have it fixate in their minds that there is a propensity for no runs to score in the first inning. This is shown by the odds offered by variuos books on the prop, which show a higher amount of vigorish for a prospective bettor to take the option that a run will NOT score. I find that most of the time the option for a run to NOT score is offered with + money or in other words the books are paying YOU to make the wager.
So what i do is line up on the side of the books and take the more unlikely thing to cash whic is that there will be arun scored.
Since his is a system bet, I encourage bettors to have a totally seperate account for this kind of play,so as to not interfere with the profits that can be made from doing this. I personally don't touch my profits until the end of the year, and then pull the money out in increments of $2500 per week.
A quick tap of the calculator will reveal my findings are profitable. I start off playing them in the first week of May to give the hitters time to warm up their bats. I play them for $200.00 a game until the month of August, whereupon I switch to $300.00 per game as the pennant races heat up and hitters are swinging for the fences in an effort to produce early runs. So even at $200.00 per game for he full year the profits are astounding... 300 X $200=$60,000.00
The way that I do it though (switching to $300.00 per game in August) I manage to catch 100 or so wins at $300.00 so my balance sheet looks like:
$200.00 X 200 + $300.00 X 100= $70,000.00
I do this wager for College Baseball World Series and playoffs as well.
Now that you have the body of the season under control it's now time to talk about live betting.
With live betting you have the option available to you to make a wager that a run will score between each inning. What i do in the playoffs is approach the games the same way by taking the1st inning for a run to score and then i double up through the 3rd inning ONLY. If there has NOT been a run scored by the third inning then I call it a loss. However there were only 3 games in the entire playoffs and World Series last year where there were no runs scored by the third inning so it is easy to see that I enjoyed great success.
This option can be used with live betting in games on ESPN throughout the year as well as the College Baseball playoffs.
The numbers are there. For any prospective baseball wagerer who doubts that this system will work, I encourage you to go back for the last 4 years and count the amount of times a run scored in the 1st inning versus the amount of times that one did NOT score and then come back to this thread and tell me what you have found. And then tell me why you would be foolish enough to not play this home-made system I have founded.
I encourage bettors to have a starting bankroll of $4000.00. If you can't come up with that then at the very least come up with $2000.00. If you have $4000.00 then you can play the system right along with me for the same amounts. if you start off with $2000.00, then your standard wager would have to be $50.00 per game until August, and then you can switch to $100.00 per game then. You will need a bankroll that can withstand the up and down nature of this type of wager because there will be ups and downs as you build up your nest. You are to play each and every single game that is played this year (as I said i don't start until the 1st week of May, but others will start before then) all the way through the end of the World Series.
This is a prop bet that takes absolutely no homework to do. All that you do is check the time that your book offeres these props and simply go down the line selecting the option for a run to score in the 1st inning for ALL the games every day in the morning while you drink your coffee.
Once again, do not play any other type of wager with this account. I don't care if it's a dog race or a Canadian Football game or even a wager on a baseball game. DO NOT MIX THIS MONEY UP. You now have your instructions. Get em CK MAFIA!"
And there you have it.
You cant post a system of wagering and expect someone to follow it to a "T" as they thought the system read and then you tell them they didnt read the fine print CK. Seriously come on now. If your going to convince people to invest 4K in a system of yours next time you probably should start a thread with that particular system like everyone else here does and post the plays each day with the lines you recommend they play and keep a running total of +/- $$$. Thats the only way to post a system and as most of your tailers lose money and you say your winning money with the same system is crap CK, in all due respect. You know as well as i do if you post a system without a running +/- Units or monies won or lost the system is non-existent in the tailers eyes and thats with anyone on a forum that posts their plays.
rjohnny was playing on three seperate books getting three seperate shitty lines. And also the adjustments were made on the same thread as the excel sheet T.A. you aren't showing the adjustments which was on cheme82's thread. Please show the whole story if you are going to show anything
Also the reason why the thread was burned was because collusion backfired in a large market. the lines were skewed when a flood of players hit the market that had never played that prop before, and the books adjusted accordingly. rjohnny you are full of shit and out of pocket saying you have been getting these same lines all year long because if you did you wouldn't be crying right now. Please, you haven't even seen lines like those you saw this moring and you don't know how to save face because you and I both know that you didn't get lines like that all year long. Stop lying to yourself. And if you are playing it on three seperate books that definitely wasn't part of the program.
If you would have posted the plays with the appropriate lines then you would have a point Cockknocker. if you dont post the plays and the recommended lines you played then its all bs. I think you know that. If Johnny lost 4k it wasnt because he was .05 cents higher on a few lines than you were. Simple math states if that was the case it would take about 25 thousand bets to prove that. Like i said earlier, in all due respect if you dont post the plays with the lines the system is just an afterthought.
he wasnt playing 3 separate lines he was choosing from 4 separate books choosing the best line. Needless to say if he was using 4 books there is no way on this green earth your lines were any different.
CK,
All I was doing was posting how you laid it out. Nothing more. Nothing less. If cheme82 made adjustments, I was and not aware of them.
Hey rjonny,
I just want to provide my stats, not taking sides.
I played early in the year, on two bad books no less, and stopped sometime in June when the system went on a little losing streak.
Anyway I continued to paper play it and this is what I have to date.
MAY was a great month that saw: 240 for yes and 189 for no.
JUNE was a little down and by months end we had: 198 yes and 201 no.
JULY was better and ended up with: 205 yes and 184 no.
So far we are struggling in August and are down 5 units. (5 more no's than yes's)
So at this point in the year there have been 64 more instances where a run was scored in the first inning than not, so CK was on to something. Does this equate to +64 units, I guess not because of the average - lines. I have not kept track of the lines.
But still it seems that 64 more yes's would be able to net you positive money, maybe I am wrong. Can anyone provide insight? Cheme82?
My guess is not the bad lines, but maybe you (we) were risking too much money on each play.
Last edited by million2one; 08-21-09 at 10:20 PM.
i agree that ck was on to something and i def think that everyone jumping on board the same time, made a difference in the lines. i myself did not play it but i have kept an eye on it and was actually going to pm ck about it asking how it was going. but im curious as to what adjustments were made, i tried to find the thread mentioned above but unfortunatly couldn't find it. please dont think im bashing as that is not my intention at all. im simply trying to find out what adjustments were made, as i think it would make a big difference.
You r a f'n retard. playing on 4 different books allowed me to get the best line between them. Again you sound so stupid when you try to defend yourself. you should be embarrassed by how low your intelligence is.
can you reply to how you blame the system on me using a bad book when in reality we were using the same book, linesmaker is in the jazette family same as sportsbook. Their prop bet odds are the same. Also I was using 3 other books comparatively getting the best lines.
rooster Do you understand that?? Through these responses you have proven you are of lower intelligence than most.
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