[gamblingisfun]

I'm so excited for baseball I had to make this today. Might be the first system thread of 2013 MLB. This is my attempt at having my own thread for the system I created. Though I really hate using the word "system", it's more of a math and numbers based method for what I do. I had success with it last year pulling in about 144 units. Though I did have to tweak the numbers a bit a month in after it wasn't doing so well. I found weightings for my stats that worked and the past became profitable, and the next 3 months profitable as well. So when I actually bet it after I modified it I was more like 100 units up. Last year was the first year of it and was more or less a trial period to see if it could actually work. It worked last year so now I have to see if it continues to work in future seasons. It's not something that can be backtested without painstaking and possibly impossible stat finding methods, as I use day to day counting stats for every team offense, pitching, etc. Hopefully the numbers hold up for this year. I am more of an investor than a gambler, though who doesn't love throwing a few bucks down on a game just for the hell of it? So my system is purely number based and I'm not biased on what it picks. I make the picks then look at the lines, so it's not based on the fave, dog, total, or any other trend/angle like that. It also isn't a chase system, I repeat NOT A CHASE. Just money line and total bets. All bets TO WIN one unit, or if it's a strong bet TO WIN two units. It's simple, no real risk of being wiped out in a hurry, no full bankroll on the line daily, just slow growth over the course of the season with plenty of action (avg 10 games a day over 117 day period last year). I start a couple weeks into april, and I stop either when I've reached my goal profit for the season or when august is ending because I don't bet on september baseball, or if I'm forced to stop because I lost too much, but hopefully that doesnt happen. I'm not famous here and I don't care, I'm not trying to be better than established proven people here, I'm just trying to have something that works, makes money, and is honest about results...even if they happen to be shitty results. Feel free to follow this throughout my betting season. I wish everyone and myself of course good luck at the start of the baseball season.

[Reno Gambler]

gl see you in Apr.!

[leafs_ducks]

will keep an eye out. see ya when they play ball

[gamblingisfun]

Model is the term I would use to describe how I bet baseball. This is a model not a system. I'll be starting this up in mid April after teams have played a couple weeks..... See everyone then.

[BigBanker]

Hi, New here and I will watch this thread to see how you go. I suggest double checking your numbers for no human errors but you already know that glgl

[gamblingisfun]

First plays of the year! April could be a bit shaky but here are the model plays anyways. Good luck!

2 Unit Plays

OAKLAND +107 (risk 1.87 units)
OAK/DET OVER 7 +107 (risk 1.87 units)
RANGERS -136 (risk 2.72 units)

1 Unit Plays

TEX/SEA OVER 7 +105 (risk .95 units)


Remember: all bets TO WIN 1 or 2 units is how I track it

[gamblingisfun]

Decent first day to my season...

YTD: 2-2
UNITS: +1.18

Forgot to mention my starting bankroll is 125 units and my goal is to hopefully double it by the end of the season.

[gamblingisfun]

Lot more plays for today, good luck!

2 Unit Plays

PHI -133
ATL +134
STL -153
SF -114
COL -109
KC -109
OAK +109
STL OVER 8 -105
COL OVER 8 +105
TOR UNDER 8.5 -115
HOU OVER 8 -110
DET OVER 8 -115

1 Unit Plays

ARI -123
HOU +195
PHI UNDER 8 -115
ATL OVER 7 +101
ARI UNDER 9 -110

[gamblingisfun]

Another day in the books. 11-6 today +6.39 units

YTD: 13-8
UNITS: +7.57

[gamblingisfun]

Plays for today 4/15

2 UNITS

PIRATES +102
CHI/TOR UNDER 9 +100

1 UNIT

WHITE SOX +120
PHILLIES -119
STL/PIT OVER -115
PHI/CIN OVER 7 -120

[gamblingisfun]

2-4 today for -2.18 units. Not terrible. Still up on the year.

YTD: 15-12
UNITS: +5.38

[gamblingisfun]

plays for 4/16

2 UNITS
ATHLETICS -215
BRAVES -180
TOR/CHI UNDER 9 -110
A'S/ASTROS OVER 7.5 -115

1 UNIT
NATIONALS -166
WHITE SOX +138
ROYALS/BRAVES UNDER 7 -110
NATIONALS/MARLINS OVER 8 -105

[gamblingisfun]

The a's will make or break my night here

[gamblingisfun]

5-3 yesterday +2.94

YTD: 20-15
UNITS: +8.32

[gamblingisfun]

plays for 4/17

2 UNITS
ATL -170
OAK -177
RAYS U8+110
JAYS U8.5 +105
DET O6.5 -110
DET -102

1 UNIT

ATL U7.5 -117
HOU U8 -106
ARI U7.5 -105
ARI +145
PIT +106
PIT O7.5 +105
BAL +101
WHITE SOX +119
PHI U8.5 -108
PHI +125
WAS O7 -110
WAS -157
LAA U9 -120
MIN +111
SF U8.5 -105
SF +106
LAD -245
LAD O6.5 -105

[gamblingisfun]

10-10-2 yesterday for -1.57 units
YTD: 30-25-2
UNITS: +6.76

[gamblingisfun]

Plays for 4/18

2 UNITS

DET -158
BOS -129
PIT/ATL U8 -104
CLE/BOS U8 -107
NYY/ARI U8.5 -105

1 UNIT

SF -114
ATL -113
STL -111
CHW +104
ARI +115
SF/MIL O7.5 -105
STL/PHI O7 -108
DET/SEA O6.5 -110
CHI/TOR U7.5 +110

[gamblingisfun]

A pretty uneventful day. 7-6-1 -1.58 units

YTD: 37-31-3
UNITS: +5.17

Hitting 54.41% so far, last season I hit 54.46%, so if I can maintain this pace it projects out very very well unit wise

[gamblingisfun]

Plays for 4/19

2 UNITS

CIN -240
SF-220
BOS-133
OAK-103
BAL -126
LAD/BAL U8.5 -112
WAS/NYM O6.5 +100
SD/SF O7 -110
KC/BOS U8 -102
SEA/TEX U8 -120
NYM +107

1 UNIT

HOU +106
TEX -210
STL -115
CLE/HOU U8.5 -105
OAK/TB U7.5 -103
STL/PHI O7.5 -112
MIA/CIN O7.5 -110

[degengamble]

i'll be keeping an eye on it....I dabbled using sabermetrics last year. I actually automated all the statistics importing in excel using VBA and macros. Last year it hit 50% so I have not revisited it - maybe i'll take another look and see if there are some filters that I should apply.

Good Luck!

[gamblingisfun]

Are you the same degengamble from the other sports forum? Or maybe it's this one I can't remember. But anyway, I had read in the past about you automating people's systems. All my calculations are automated, but all my data that I use I manually gather, just lots of copy and paste. I did it every day last season and got so used to it I can practically do it in my sleep now. I'd say it takes about a half hour for each day, including building the model spreadsheet page, inputting matchups, finding starting pitchers for the day, and all the stats etc. I like my routine. If I ever want to automate something I know who to ask now.

[gamblingisfun]

Plays for 4/20

2 UNITS

CIN -235
NYY -105
TEX -162
ATL -129
SEA/TEX U9.5 -110
ATL/PIT U7.5 -118

1 UNIT

PHI -130
SF -158
OAK +118
MIA/CIN U8.5 -110
STL/PHI O7.5 +115
SD/SF O7.5 +105
NYY/TOR U8.5 -105
OAK/TB O8 -103

[degengamble]

Are you the same degengamble from the other sports forum? Or maybe it's this one I can't remember. But anyway, I had read in the past about you automating people's systems. All my calculations are automated, but all my data that I use I manually gather, just lots of copy and paste. I did it every day last season and got so used to it I can practically do it in my sleep now. I'd say it takes about a half hour for each day, including building the model spreadsheet page, inputting matchups, finding starting pitchers for the day, and all the stats etc. I like my routine. If I ever want to automate something I know who to ask now.

Yup - same DegenGamble from both covers and SBR - luckily I got the same username for both.

I'll be watching this season to see you it pans out - good luck!

[gamblingisfun]

Good day for me today: 7-5, +5.37 units. 5 of the wins were on the big plays. 2 plays were no action (sf, and the sf/sd total) because of the late scratch of richard.

YTD: 51-42-4
UNITS: +9.21

With a starting bankroll of 125 units, I'm up 7.37%. My ultimate goal is 100% which would double the starting bankroll.

[gamblingisfun]

Plays for 4/21

2 UNITS

CIN -245
NYY +126
OAK -118
CIN U8.5 -120
WAS/NYM 07.5 +110

1 UNIT

WAS -133
SF -140
COL -124
DET -105
DET/LAA O8
OAK/TB U8 -115
NYY/TOR U 8.5 -110
SF/SD U7.5 -105

[gamblingisfun]

Just a bloodbath today 3-10 for -11.14 units, in the red for the first time this season, hopefully not in it for long.

YTD: 54-52-4
UNITS:-1.93

[EXhoosier10]

5 plays out of 100 that were over +120 and only one was for 2u. Think your system might have a bias or two towards favorites?

[gamblingisfun]

5 plays out of 100 that were over +120 and only one was for 2u. Think your system might have a bias or two towards favorites?

I noticed the same thing too. Last year I had a 54/46 % split between faves/dogs, so I hope this is just early season crap and will normalize.

[EXhoosier10]

I noticed the same thing too. Last year I had a 54/46 % split between faves/dogs, so I hope this is just early season crap and will normalize.

did you have a similar breakdown pre/post ASG? good teams start to get auto favorited by the books mid-summer and you start seeing playoff teams -250 almost daily against the 'stros and such.

[gamblingisfun]

Actually it turns out that I had a split of 62/38 for faves/dogs last season. Identical split pre/post break, although I stopped a week before september started because I don't bet in september. I also had the same winning percentage on fave/dog picks at both points, although dogs did slightly worse post break.

[gamblingisfun]

Plays for 4/22

2 UNITS

TEX -101
STL/WAS O7.5 +105

1 UNIT

WAS -105
CIN -159
ATL -116
MIL -115
ARI +105
BAL -118
NYY +105
HOU +154
CHI/CIN U8 +101
MIL/SD U7 -115
ARI/SF U7 -120
TOR/BAL U8.5 -107
NYY/TB O7 +105
SEA/HOU O7 -104
TEX/LAA U8.5 -115

[gamblingisfun]

6-10 today for -3.95 units

YTD: 60-62-4
UNITS: -5.88

[gamblingisfun]

Plays for 4/23

2 UNITS

OAK/BOS U8.5 +105
LAD/NYM O6 -110
CLE +111

1 UNIT

STL -107
PIT +142
LAD -144
MIL -124
ARI +128
OAK +108
DET -168
BAL +106
TB -175
HOU +112
TEX -110
STL/WAS U7 -112
PIT/PHI U7.5 -125
MIL/SD O7 -112
ARI/SF U6.5 -105
KC/DET U7.5 -112
TOR/BAL U8 -107
NYY/TB O7 -107
CLE/CHW U8 -105
SEA/HOU U7.5 +105
TEX/LAA O8 +109

[gamblingisfun]

Killing it so far today! thank you weather for the oakland game for cancelling the total bet I had. I'll update after games go final.

[gamblingisfun]

15-3-2 yesterday for +12.10 units, best day so far this season

YTD: 75-65-6
UNITS: +6.22