[Chance Harper]

Joba, Yankees look for first '09 win vs. Red Sox

Boston is a perfect 8-0 against their from New York, and the Yankees are out to end that streak in front of the home fans and increase their lead in the AL East. First up is Joba Chamberlain vs. John Smoltz.

Okay, now the Red Sox Nation is really steamed.

Boston (62-44, +3.83 units) just dropped back-to-back contests to the Tampa Bay Rays to fall 2.5 games out of first place in the American League East. Worse, the team they’re trailing is none other than the New York Yankees (65-42, +1.37 units), fresh off handing the Toronto Blue Jays a pair of defeats. That does not sit well with the Sox faithful. Oh, and don’t mention David Ortiz.

The Sox can do something right away about their place in the division. Thursday (7:05 p.m. Eastern) is the start of a four-game set between the Red Sox and the Yankees at new Yankee Stadium. Boston, as you probably know, is 8-0 versus New York in 2009. First rebuttal: That’s six games at Fenway Park, where Red Sox bettors are well compensated at 35-17 (+7.03 units). The Sox are 27-27 on the road for a deficit of 3.20 units.

The Yankees also have a favorable split when they’re home (35-17, +1.68 units) and not on the road (30-25, -0.31 units). And if you focus purely on the post-All Star stats, New York is king of the world right now.

Yankees: 14-5, .844 OPS, 4.14 ERA
Red Sox: 8-10, .770 OPS, 4.28 ERA

Boston’s production level should improve at some point, partly due to “regression to the mean” and partly due to the arrival of catcher Victor Martinez (.832 OPS with Cleveland), who is 10-for-21 in four games with his new employer. The Yankees don’t have much room for improvement at all, and their only trade deadline acquisition was veteran infielder Jerry Hairston Jr. (.701 career OPS), although Hairston looks good in pinstripes so far at 3-for-8 with a pair of walks (.875 OPS).

More hits are always welcome, but neither team is pitching like a World Champion at this point. Here are the projected starting assignments.

Game 1: John Smoltz vs. Joba Chamberlain
Thursday, 7:05 p.m. (ET)
Smoltz (7.12 ERA, 4.07 xFIP) has been getting beaten around since coming off the DL, with 14.4 percent of his flyballs clearing the fence. That’s six home runs allowed in seven starts with a team record of 2-5 (-4.98 units). Chamberlain (3.58 ERA, 4.48 xFIP) is also giving up more taters per flyball than usual at 12.7 percent, but he’s strung together three straight beauties to push the Yankees to 14-6 (+4.98 units) in his 20 starts. Betting odds at press time had New York priced between -170 and -180, with a total of eight runs. It appears Sox OF Jason Bay (.872 OPS) will miss Thursday’s game with a bad hamstring.

Game 2: Josh Beckett vs. A.J. Burnett
Friday, 7:05 p.m. (ET)
This is more like it. Beckett (3.27 ERA, 3.45 xFIP) is having yet another excellent season, pulling in 8.72 units on a team record of 16-5. He’s already beaten the Yankees three times this year, twice with Burnett (3.89 ERA, 4.76 xFIP) on the hill for New York. Burnett is enjoying a profitable campaign anyway at 14-7 (+5.47 units) and had eight straight quality starts before melting down for seven runs against the White Sox last week.

Game 3: Clay Buchholz vs. CC Sabathia
Saturday, 4:10 p.m. (ET) FOX
The writing is on the wall for Buchholz (6.05 ERA, 4.73 xFIP), who should have pitched at the Home Run Derby contest with that 21.1 percent HR/FB ratio. Paul Byrd was signed to a minor-league deal and is expected to rejoin the Sox by Sept. 1. Meanwhile, Boston salvaged a pair of wins from Buchholz’s four starts to sit 1.76 units in the red. Sabathia (3.95 ERA, 4.29 xFIP) is drowning in chalk at -8.20 units on a team record of 12-11. CC gave up at least five runs in three of his last five starts.

Game 4: Jon Lester vs. Andy Pettitte
Sunday, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN
It’s Sunday Night Baseball, and Lester (3.79 ERA, 3.36 xFIP) is a prime-time pitching prodigy. The Sox are 14-8 in his games (2-0 versus the Yankees) for 3.02 units of earnings. He has seven quality starts in his last eight appearances. The veteran Pettitte (4.35 ERA, 4.50 xFIP) also has the Yankees at 14-8, but for only 1.23 units of profit. There’s that chalk again.