[Squirrel]

San Francisco Giants: Tim Lincecum (10-2, 2.33 ERA)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Maholm (6-4, 4.60 ERA)

Maybe i'm way off here but does anyone else think this is a perfect spot for fading Tim Lincecum? Sure he has been one of the elite pitchers in baseball this year but he started the all-star game just 3 nights ago, and in my experience starting pitchers hate having their routines messed with too much.

The Pirates are no way as bad of a team as their win/loss record suggests, pythag has them at being 43-45 based on their runs scored/conceded, compared to the actual record of 38-50. The Buccos come back home after a 9 game road stretch, and they play their best ball at home. Their offensive numbers and bullpen stats are both better in home games, and Paul Maholm has a 2.96 home ERA compared to a 4.60 mark overall.

The Giants are a light hitting team who are sticking around based on pitching, sure they've had a couple of big numbers on the scoreboard lately but those games came at home against poor teams in Houston and San Diego. The Giants hit just .250 on the road and average 3.6 runs a game, which is pretty poor. They also struggle against left handed pitching, tallying just 13 runs in their last runs 5 games against left handed starters.

Tim Lincecum has only faced the Pirates once before giving up 6 runs in 6 innings, but that was back in 2007 so cant really take too much notice of that. I have very little doubt that the Giants are favourites, I Just believe that the Pirates are in the perfect spot to win this game - with the motivation of wanting to get a good home performance in returning home after a torrid road trip, and the fact that Tim Lincecum has had his schedule altered by his all-star appearence.

Pittsburgh ML (+141) and especially RL (-118) are both realistic plays here for me.

Thoughts? Opinions? STFU replies?


EDIT: Just noticed ive written the title of the thread wrong....FAIL

[edge323]

True, but Lincecum did pretty bad at the all star game, so he has something to prove and probably will be on fire in this game. The all star game was only 2 innings, so barely touched his routine.

[fifawcs]

If you are gonna fade Lincecum, this could be a good start. If you look at Maholm's numbers, they are pretty good at home. The Pirates also have a winning home record while the Giants have a losing road record. Giants also play poor defense. Lincecum could easily shut down the Pirates. But if the buccos can get lincecum out early, they have a shot at winning.

[Squirrel]

I agree he didnt pitch that much, but even two innings still involves plenty of warming up and conditioning beforehand. Starters are used to 4 days of doing very little except resting between each start, there are very few starters who are as effective when not working on full rest.

Good luck if you make a play regardless of which side you are on

[Metalhead]

I avoided the game just because Pittsburgh has a .288 batting average at home, the only team higher is Baltimore.
San Fran has a team average of .250 on the road, although they have been hot lately.

[pimike]

If you are gonna fade Lincecum, this could be a good start. If you look at Maholm's numbers, they are pretty good at home. The Pirates also have a winning home record while the Giants have a losing road record. Giants also play poor defense. Lincecum could easily shut down the Pirates. But if the buccos can get lincecum out early, they have a shot at winning.

perfectly said

[Kav]

SAN FRAN -1.5 +105

[pimike]

I agree he didnt pitch that much, but even two innings still involves plenty of warming up and conditioning beforehand. Starters are used to 4 days of doing very little except resting between each start, there are very few starters who are as effective when not working on full rest.

Good luck if you make a play regardless of which side you are on

With this thinking then Dodgers would not be a play either cause he pitched in the Allstar game. Not sure I buy into that.

[Wilforth]

The Pirates are also one of the best dogs in the +140 to +150 range.

[Squirrel]

With this thinking then Dodgers would not be a play either cause he pitched in the Allstar game. Not sure I buy into that.

Billingsley threw 1 inning and not 2, also Billingsley has more experience of being a relief pitcher in his career so he may be more accustomed to different number of rest days.

Just for the record the Dodgers aint a play for me for exactly this reason

[pimike]

Billingsley threw 1 inning and not 2, also Billingsley has more experience of being a relief pitcher in his career so he may be more accustomed to different number of rest days.

Just for the record the Dodgers aint a play for me for exactly this reason

Billingsly has tried for his 10th win what 5 times and failed. I believe he is going down. I think he is tired already.

[pimike]

The Pirates are also one of the best dogs in the +140 to +150 range.

Good info

[Squirrel]

Great added info guys, I'm on ML and RL

GL to all whichever side of the coin your on.

[Squirrel]

God bless the pathetic Giants offense

[pimike]

Billingsley threw 1 inning and not 2, also Billingsley has more experience of being a relief pitcher in his career so he may be more accustomed to different number of rest days.

Just for the record the Dodgers aint a play for me for exactly this reason

Well both were good plays, Astros were actually better.