Oh my I am so looking forward to tomorrow!
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Comment -
By the way boys Steph Curry is sitting this one out for the Dubs tonightComment -
they're begging for that Over $$ CK...
cant figure out how to share screenshot.
i was referring to the 49.5 total across the books at the SBowl.
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Close shave with the Hawks there. Meanwhile VCU is pissing in the wind here! YikesComment -
[QUOTE=Tommy Karate;31391534]they're begging for that Over $$ CK...
cant figure out how to share screenshot.
i was referring to the 49.5 total across the books at the SBowl.
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NBA Record update last 105 moves
64-39-2 (60.95%) +22.82 UNITS, ROI 17.58Comment -
Road chalk is assigned to teams that are of a certain status. The Raptors despite their recent good run are not one of those teams. I have avoided making moves on the Wizards this season-electing to fade them every chance that I get when going up against good teams catching them in good situations. With the Raptors garnering 70% of the money at the time of me writing this, they may end up with a bad number (-8.5) which is a 100% number in the NBA this season for a team at home catching that amount (+8.5)Comment -
The Bulls surrender the 2nd most road points in the league 121. Only the Wizards give up more (121.6) Is that a recipe to beat the Celtics? Jayson Tatum looks to be wanting a day off. If that is the case then a good look would be to take Jalen Brown's points to go OVER ANYTHING.
Also the Sixers looked good last night against the Lakers. However when the Kings show up tonight they will be in a foul mood-having taken the Nets lightly early in their last game and having to make a huge comeback and win by the margin. My buy in price is -9.5 to -11 so the number could use some work for that one.
Well anyway-I will be using my Hard Rock app this evening-our runner is out of commission today and the Missus has a lot of serves to perform in smaller cities in Hillsborough County. Translated i will be making my moves like literally 10 minutes before each time slot to get the closing numbers perfected.
Stay locked in-or follow the moves on Twitter or at the Action Network to get them directly to your phoneComment -
Rot#509 Kings-9Comment -
Rot.#501 Pistons+6
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Rot.#505 Nets+2
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I don't go against Cle much but i like this spot with their cancer (Butler) OUT, and Ware has looked really good.Comment -
Rot.#518 Pelicans+1
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Rot.#512 Heats+6.5
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Rot.#520 Suns+1
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1/30/25
Lakers-6 (-6.5) (-7.5 to -8) (-9 to -11)
Wizards (+7) (+8.5)
SYNERGY LAKERS-8.5 O/U 237.5
Hawks (+12.5)
Cavs-10 (-10 to -11.5)
SYNERGY CAVS-8 O/U 227
T-Wolves-7.5 (-7.5 to -8)
Jazz (+7) (+8.5)
SYNERGY T-WOLVES-10 O/U 224.5
Rockets (+4 to +6.5) UNDERDOG ADVANTAGE
Grizzlies-3.5 (-3.5 ML)
SYNERGY ROCKETS-2.5 O/U 221.5
Magic-5 (-6.5) (-7.5 to -8)
Blazers (+3 to +4) (+7) (+8.5)
SYNERGY MAGIC-12 O/U 227Comment -
Looking like my underdogs aren't playing up to their numbers this evening! Yikes! On to tomorrow!Comment -
Time to get it back slowly but surely
Rot.#529 Magic-5 3 UNITS
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4th game in 5 days for the T-Wolves and this one is in altitude against a seemingly poor opponent (Jazz) with landmine numbers +7 and +8.5 possible. 83% of the money is on the T-Wolves chalk. And to help matters they have won 4 in a row.
The caveat in all of this is the fact that this will be the first time that these teams have played this season. Some of the factors that line makers sometimes don't adequately account for is motivation, situation and familiarity. So it stands to reason that I should wait this out and then pull the trigger close to gametime and get a Jazz+8.5 preferably but a +7 hits pretty good at a 67% clip. The +8.5 hits at a clip of 85.7%
One thing that I know is that the Jazz give maximum effort regardless of the situationComment -
As if we didn't already have it hard enough to make an honest buck-here goes this...Comment -
I have some friends in the business. One of which was the late Chet Coppack-who of course gave me my nickname after a night where I took over the bar by paying the tab for the rest of the evening and also became the bartender-I got everyone in the place hammered. He said that I remind him of the nifty and heavy pouring bartender in a scene from Star Wars -Cocknocker. It was shortened to CK for short. Anyway back to the point. he once told me that 63% of the money on any side in betting should move the money in their direction. if it doesn't move in that direction then you have a good bet on the other side-especially if the money line has decreased.
So we do have that this evening with the T-Wolves garnering 98% of the cash and 80% of the side and the side has gone down from -7.5 to -5.5 and the money line has gone from -300 to -220.
It's not the best number now at +5.5 for the Jazz so I wouldn't go crazy with it-just piece it up because you may break even making identical moves-still it's good proposition
Rot.#532 Jazz+5.5
Rot.#532 Jazz+180 ML
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I don't care how good it looks-if you make a move on the Wizards-unfollow my pageComment -
I give up trying to outsmart the books in CBB. All of the numbers are actually bad outside of a few-and even then I got burned. One thing that I do know-is that after looking things over I did pretty well so far this season making moves on ignorant chalk. The kind of chalk that LeBron throws in the air before a game
Alright y'all I went looking for the largest chalk on the board in CBB that doesn't make any logical sense. I think that I found it. I have no idea what their mascot is either BTW
Rot.#773 UNC Wilmington-11 1st half
Rot.#773 UNC-Wilmington-18 FULL
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Get on the Bruins tonight, CKComment -
Magic-5 2nd halfComment -
Ucla+1.5 2nd halfComment -
1/31/25
Clippers-14 (-13 to -13.5)
Hornets (+11.5) (+12.5) UNDERDOG ADVANTAGE
SYNERGY HORNETS-2 O/U 219
Mavs (+1) (+2)
Pistons-1.5 (-3.5 ML)
SYNERGY PISTONS-4.5 O/U 230.5
Nuggets-9 (-10 to -11)
Sixers (+7) (+8.5) UNDERDOG ADVANTAGE
SYNERGY SIXERS-4 O/U 228.5
Bulls (+3 to +4)
Raptors-4.5 (-5.5 ML)
SYNERGY RAPTORS-6 O/U 236
Celtics-11 (-10 to -11)
Pelicans (+8.5) (+11.5)
SYNERGY CELTICS-10.5 O/U 215
Bucks-3.5 (-5.5 ML) (-6 to -6.5)
Spurs (+3 to +4)
SYNERGY BUCKS-2.5 O/U 228
Suns-1 (+1) (+2)
Warriors (+1) (+3 to +4)
SYNERGY WARRIORS-4 O/U 227.5Last edited by atthehalf; 01-31-25, 07:03 AM.Comment -
Weirdest line of the day. The Mavs started out at -1 and are now +1.5 with 73% of the money on them. So now the Pistons have a bad number assigned to them. After settling for a +5.5 yesterday with the Jazz which ultimately lost badly I will be firm in sticking to the numbers of my buy in prices today and playing late on the closerComment -
The only event that falls within my buy in price and margin is that of the Bucks and Spurs with the Sours priced between +3 to +4. The Celtics are on the fringe of a buy in price at -11 which is as far as I am willing to go for them. The line maker seems on point with them as I have a similar number for them as well with -10.5.
So it looks like slim pickins tonight in the senior circuitComment -
First move of the day
Rot.#534 Clippers/Hornets UNDER 212.5 2 UNITS
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Top of the order for the Cubs looks to be dazzling with Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele. And it's a steep fall after that
I am projecting Imanaga to go 186 frames; with a 14-8 record and a K rate of 24.1% and a WHIP of 1.15; BB% of 5.6 and H/P 8.3; and Steele to go a sterling 156 frames; 12-7 record; K-rate of 21.8% and WHIP of 1.28 and 8.4 H/9.
However there's a steep drop off after that with Jameson Taillon, Mathew Boyd and Javier Assad
While Taillon did give them 165 frames last season his K rate of 18.5 is substandard and it's a wonder that he was able to keep his ERA in check with a 3.27. He used his 4 seamer 30%; cutter 25%; sweeper 16%; curveball 15%; sinker 11%; and changeup 4%. Translated he has a decent arsenal but his whiff rate was at 6.9% and the average MLB pitcher has a whiff rate of 9.6% and a barrel % of 11.5; the average MLB pitcher barrel % is 9.8%. This is cause for alarm and a regression to the mean is about to happen should this continue.
Matthew Boyd only went for 39.2 frames-granted his ERA was 2.72 in those and his K % was nice at 27.7% but his BB% was average at best at 7.8% and his barrel % was 6.7. So it's feast or famine with him and given his track record as he hasn't gone over 80 frames since 2019. Can you say callup?
Javier Assad...all you need to know is this-a K% of 19.4% and a BB % of 9.9% and a flyball % of 30.1. I have no idea how he kept his ERA at 3.73 last season using his 4 seamer only 16% and his sinker 36% and cutter 22%. His secondaries are curveball 12% and slider 8% and changeup 5% and sweeper 3%. Interesting mix. He would do well to cut down on the walks by coming after guys with more 4 seamers high in the zone and mix that induced vertical break in with his cutter also high in the zone and then finish hitters off with more sweepers-because his sweeper is NASTY.
So it's an issue with method and approach with Assad. Frankly it looks like the Cubs are trying to get by in a cost cutting way hoping that Kyle Tucker, Dansby Swanson, and Ian Happ can produce with Seiya Suzuki on base. As a footnote-the Cubs did away with Suzuki's interpreter so there's that.
I am giving the thumbs down on the Cubs and their win total for this season. Lots of hope. Hope is not a good strategyComment -
Backroom starting pitcher steal of the offseason-sure the Orioles lost some pitching with Corbin Burnes and in the process gained Tomoyuki Sugano from Japan on a one year deal-and he will be basically betting on himself. I have already snapped him up and can't wait to get a huge share in his first start when 80% or so of the uninformed members in my group go the other way. 156 frames with an ERA of 1.67 last season? Are you fuckin kiddin me? His fastball is underwhelming by most metrics but his control is supreme with his arsenal of pitches and it overcomes that shortcoming. And again-what better motivation than signing a one year deal?
When I drafted him highly during our Keys retreat draft party everyone looked at me like "this idiot"Comment
