Totals have been very tough this year. The last two years totals were so easy. Especially after the alll star break. In those seasons I just used the advanced matchup reports like are found on
www.thespread.com. They highlight lopsided % in the O/U. If I saw multiple highlights of either the O or the U in both teams and the starting pitcher / opposing lineup matchup looked good and the bullpen performance matched the O/U pick then I went with it. This approach was amazing. >70% on totals two years in a row.
This year is a totally different story. The trends don't work at all.
So, I'm not playing many totals this year. When I do it is because something is really jumping off the page. Like these facts on the Giants/Padres game:
Giants U at home is +$ Won no matter who they play
Matt Cain's nickname is "The Undertaker"
Padres don't score
Padres trotting out a dude just up from the minors. He was killing 'em in AAA and AA ball. And he has been in the majors before so he won't suffer from the "golly gee wizz Auntie Em I am in the big leagues, oooo my stomach" butterflies. Teams usually have trouble vs a pitcher they have never seen.