Originally Posted by
High3rEl3m3nt
Matt, I appreciate your challenging my analyses. If I can't answer the questions of a poster on narcotics, then my arguments are garbage. By the way, I wish you a speedy recovery.
First, I want to say that I took the Giants last night (RL) and I have the Giants series bet. I refrained from playing a total last night for one of several reasons. First, I don't like the Tigers against soft-tossing pitchers, whether they be right or left-handed. I think the A's, whose starting pitching staff is perfect for Oakland and other pitcher-friendly parks, demonstrated that this kind of style can be effective against the Tigers.
Secondly, last night was a horrible spot for the Tigers' batters and not the easiest position for JV, though who would have guessed that he would have been rocked the way that he did. Baseball is a routine, rhythm, peaks and valleys game, where having an extended off-period interrupts each of these key aspects. There's no replacement for a break during the post-season against the cream of the crop, as the Tigers experienced.
Tonight, Detroit is in a much better spot and it's due to several things. For one, the week long wait to start the WS is over. They have the WS taste in their mouth and can put it behind them. Yes, there's some pressure to not go down 2 games, but I guarantee there was more pressure facing the Tigers club while waiting and waiting for the WS to start and then to travel to SF. Tonight's game fits into the swing of things...they're playing back-to-back and it feels naturally. There's no sitting around and stewing about last night or in the case of sweeping the Yanks, there's no sitting around twiddling your thumbs, wondering who your opponent will be, and all the other what ifs. There's no time to let the mental aspects interrupt the flow of the game, but to just play baseball, which worked huge for SF last night, and will be a benefit to their approach tonight. The difference being is that Detroit gets some of that too. Detroit's offense was also peaking at the right time and I think back-2-back game is exactly what they need tonight.
Finally, Madison is a lefhander, but he's not a soft-tossing lefthander. His fastball is in the mid-to-low 90s and it's in a much better location against left-handed hitters traditionally, than against right handed hitters. As the MoneyShot correctly pointed out, tonigth's game is about the effectiveness of his changeup. However, the changeup's success if tied to the fastball, which has been a struggle for bumgarner in the post season. Again, with my argument, it's more important to assess recent success than season long success and all signs point to a pressure-packed night bumgarner. If this is the case and again, this is just my theory, nerves in the way of throwing the fastball mean pitches tend to be left up and in bad locations. Also, factor in that Bumgarner is very young and that his postseason play up to this point is frong and center stage in his overall experience. The first inning will be huge tonight. Based upon my read of Bumgarner in tonight's spot, I am arguing that the offensive advantage is neutral...meaning the Tigers' hitters are in a much better spot, Bumgarner has lots to prove, and his style matches up better to the Tigers' hitting.
I am not sure where you're getting the Fister will get rocked tonight argument. Fister is a very unique pitcher, 6' 9", grounds out right handed hitter and pops-up left handed hitters. He's been dominant in the post-season and yes, he's facing a hot hitting team, but his stature, release points, are no easy feat to dominate offensively.
Again, I am projecting that Fister goes deep into the game, the Tigers don't have to rely on their BP for a significant amount of innings, the Giants may go to their BP ealier, and in a roundabout way, I think under 7 is a good bet.
As far as tonight's winner, I am leaning Tigers...no bet though. I want SF to win for the sake of my series bet, but I think the Tigers are in a good spot.