1. #1
    gregm
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    Monday picks ( 586-503 +38.55 )

    2011 baseball thread ( 244-187 +51.21)
    Cardinals to win world series +1400 risk 1

    Pretty dismal feeling about this game tonight. I read a stat today on the boards that said in baseball history there has only been one team to blow a 3-1 series lead in the NLCS and its was the St. Louis Cardinals in 1996 to the Braves. They were up 3-1 but lost the close out game at home and lost game 6 in Atlanta and were demolished in game 7, 15-0. I doubt we see anything like that today but the Giants bats have woken up and the Cardinals have looked awful over the last two games. I see this one as low scoring and close with Lohse and Cain on the mound so taking a punt on the Cardinals here .

    Statistically the Giants have been one of the best teams to fade on the runline, alot of 1 run games and Lohse ( 2-0,1.96 ERA in three starts during the postseason), is having a phenomenal year. Lohse went 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA and is 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA in his five starts against the Giants

    Cain really hasnt been impressive lately, he is 1-2, 4.43 in his last four starts,and is 1-2, 5.89 ERA in his three starts vs St Louis this year. Cardinals are definitely the more clutch team in the elimination games but its definitely a different look to the cardinals this year. Giants have been pretty poor in these elimination spots.

    Cardinals +1.5 -185 risk 1.85

    2675 SFO B.Posey a hit
    2676 SFO B.Posey no hits +180 risk 1

    2643 STL K.Lohse allows a home run
    2644 STL K.Lohse no home run allowed -165 risk 1.65

  2. #2
    ermzzy
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    fading cain here, hes horrible against cardinals and i dont see lohse failing here, CARDINALZ TO WIN AND GO TO WORLD SERIES

  3. #3
    gregm
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    I hope so ermzzy.

    2623 STL C.Beltran hits+runs+RBI -115 risk 1.15
    2624 SFO P.Sandoval hits+runs+RBI

    2667 SFO P.Sandoval scores a run
    2668 SFO P.Sandoval no run scored -160 risk 1.6

  4. #4
    ses_d
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    wait, I don't get it when you said Giants have been poor in these elimination spots? Did you miss them coming back when facing the Reds in an elimination game away, and them making HISTORY coming back 3-0 beating out the Reds at their home?

    also, did you miss the last game at St. Louis when Giants agian faced elimination away and won to bring the series back home?

    So technically Giants have played 5+ elimination games already against the Reds and Cardinals.


    Also note the Cards are lucky to even be here. Blown call on infield fly rule in the Braves game. Blown call in Washington game where it was suppose to be Strike 3 to end the game but instead called ball and Cards some how rallied back.

    If you guys think Cain will lose 2 in a row against anyone, then tread carefully. Cain at home is $$$$$$$

  5. #5
    gregm
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    Quote Originally Posted by ses_d View Post
    wait, I don't get it when you said Giants have been poor in these elimination spots? Did you miss them coming back when facing the Reds in an elimination game away, and them making HISTORY coming back 3-0 beating out the Reds at their home?

    also, did you miss the last game at St. Louis when Giants agian faced elimination away and won to bring the series back home?

    So technically Giants have played 5+ elimination games already against the Reds and Cardinals.


    Also note the Cards are lucky to even be here. Blown call on infield fly rule in the Braves game. Blown call in Washington game where it was suppose to be Strike 3 to end the game but instead called ball and Cards some how rallied back.

    If you guys think Cain will lose 2 in a row against anyone, then tread carefully. Cain at home is $$$$$$$
    Game 7 numbers is what I am referring to, the Cardinals have the best game 7 numbers in baseball and the Giants have some of the worst but alot of those numbers are from past years and not really relevant. St. Louis just always seems to step up here in these spots but I totally agree that fading Cain is not very profitable. Cain hasnt been throwing his best stuff in the playoffs and Lohse is a veteran , Duncan did an incredible job with him.

    Lohse has had a phenomenal year. Even the starter stats are only somewhat relevant tonight with both starters on a short leash, but all it takes is one bad inning. I am just hoping for a low scoring game and extra innings would be fine by me.

    Should be a nasty night but they should finish this one.

    http://www.weather.com/sports-rec/nl...ecast-20121022

    Last edited by gregm; 10-22-12 at 03:27 PM.

  6. #6
    KktdocT
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    GL, mate.

  7. #7
    ses_d
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    yeah, I'm from the bay area and the rain should have already arrived. instead it's pretty sunny but clouds lingering. I expect the rain to come by the time the game starts if not later.

    hopefully nothing too bad...maybe it won't rain at all.

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