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Pile On The New Guy, Going Against The Grain w 2 Plays
New to SBR. Looking forward to future discussions.
I think people are looking too much into the starting pitchers in this one. Both managers will have a very quick hook. Cardinals haven't proven able to hit the Giants good relievers this series, and the Giants have yet to prove that they can hit the heat that the Cardinals relievers have been throwing.
The Giants did hit Lynn well in his August start, but that was in the midst of some mechanical issues that landed him in the bullpen shortly after. Cardinals will likely only give Lynn (who is a pretty hard thrower in his own right with his FB sitting in the 92-95 range) 3 innings as anything beyond that he's struggled with. Note how the Giants were no hit through Lynn's first 3 innings in Game 1 before he wore out. Then you'd have to imagine they'd turn the ball over to Joe Kelly for 2-3 innings whose FB sits pretty consistently in the 95-96 range. After that you're looking at Trevor Rosenthal, who has been hitting 100 consistently, and Mujica (the only seemingly hittable reliever this series) before giving way to the hard throwing combo of Boggs and Motte.
On the Giants side, it's hard to predict what you're going to see from Zito, who threw a solid 6.2 innings allowing only 2 runs against the Cardinals back in that August game. If Zito struggles early, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Bochy throw out Madison Bumgarner as he was warming up early in last nights game during one of Lincecum's rough spots. Bumgarner has admitted that his stuff isn't there right now. Whatever happens, the Cardinals are likely to see a heavy dose of Affeldt, Casilla, and Romo in this game no matter the score.
With all this in mind I think those expecting an offensive show are mistakin. I would imagine the Giants will get at least 1 run off of Lynn before he gives way to Kelly, and tag one on against the bullpen (probable against Mujica). But by then The Cardinals will have tallied at least 3-4 against a Zito or a Zito/Bumgarner combo.
Final score: Cardinals 4, Giants 2 - Cardinals clinch the NL Pennant
Two plays: STL -157, u7.5 -115
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