1. #1
    texhooper
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    you will hate this thread

    here are two systems/methods that i made up that are probably destined for ruin. they're doing ok now, but i don't recommend this approach unless you, like me, could care less about actually capping baseball and are looking for something to pass the time, potentially ruin you, etc. until NBA and NFL start up again. "chase" is a very dirty word around here, so just to get this out of the way on the front end--if you don't like it or don't agree with it, i don't give a shit. this is for fun mixed with a hope and a prayer.

    +50% over/under chase-two teams facing one another who have more overs than unders or vice versa will probably hit what they have more of. call it a loss at the end of the series. fairly simple. this is 16-0 since i've been doing it, which is not that long, and it will lose soon if i had to guess. but i wouldn't have guessed 16 straight wins, so who knows.

    home sweep chase-play a home team in danger of facing a home sweep of three or four games. if they lose this game, chase for a win in the next series of three or four games at home. call it a loss after this series. fairly simple. i don't think this has lost all season, not even on the nationals.

    i'm hoping if nothing else that these two systems combined will end up plus units. i'll track units in a roundabout fashion. i'll start the posted records at 0-0.

    6/19

    +50% over/under 0-0, +0 units (this is the most plays so far at once for this method, which is scary, but fun.)
    orioles/phillies over 10 (gm 1)
    brewers/tigers under 10 (gm 1)
    yankees/marlins over 9.5 (gm 1)
    white sox/reds under 9 (gm 1)
    braves/red sox under 10 (gm 1)
    astros/twins under 8.5 (gm 1)
    cardinals/royals under 9 (gm 1)
    rangers/giants under 8 (gm 1)

    home sweep 0-0, +0 units
    phillies -150 (gm 2)

  2. #2
    The_Kid
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    tex, hope you're not putting too much $ on the line doing this stuff. Maybe you could take into account other factors for that home chase sweep (i.e. overall record, pitching matchups, etc). It's just a suggestion. GL to you trying this stuff out though.

  3. #3
    texhooper
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    very little. i appreciate the concern.

  4. #4
    EmpireMaker
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    I got those picks at 2-5 so far but I appreciate your initiative in trying to come up with a good system.

  5. #5
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post

    6/19

    +50% over/under 0-0, +0 units (this is the most plays so far at once for this method, which is scary, but fun.)
    orioles/phillies over 10 (gm 1) L
    brewers/tigers under 10 (gm 1) L
    yankees/marlins over 9.5 (gm 1) L
    white sox/reds under 9 (gm 1) W
    braves/red sox under 10 (gm 1) P
    astros/twins under 8.5 (gm 1) W
    cardinals/royals under 9 (gm 1) L
    rangers/giants under 8 (gm 1) L

    home sweep 0-0, +0 units
    phillies -150 (gm 2) L
    some very maddening plays today which looked really good through the first half of the game then ultimately failed to hit. whatever. on to tomorrow.

    6/20

    +50% over/under 2-0, +2 units
    orioles/phillies over 9.5 (gm 2)
    brewers/tigers under 10 (gm 2)
    yankees/marlins over 8 (gm 2)
    braves/red sox under 8.5 (gm 1 redux due to the push yesterday)
    cardinals/royals under 7.5 (gm 2)
    rangers/giants under 8.5 (gm 2)

    home sweep 0-0, +0 units
    phillies -152 (gm 3)
    Last edited by texhooper; 06-20-09 at 09:26 AM. Reason: moneyline for the phillies was wrong

  6. #6
    lakerboy
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    U stink- my 3 year old picked more winners than you tonite by poking her finger into the paper- stop wasting ur time i saw ur nba picks you are biased not a pro

  7. #7
    texhooper
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    oh wow...i don't even know where to begin. it looks like i've been found out. i know i have probably had most of you fooled all along, but i feel that due to recent accusations it's time for me to come clean--i am not, in fact, a pro. i am a 3 year old child whose dad talks shit on internet gambling forums under the name of lakerboy. sorry my picks let you down, daddy. i hope you're not disappointed in me.

  8. #8
    G's pks
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    Tex obviously a system starting out 2-5, is not going to impress anyone! maybe rework a few things and see if it gets better... Starting 2-5... I would start with revisions right away!

  9. #9
    texhooper
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    G, you may have a point and I appreciate you using some degree of tact. We'll see what happens after games 2 and 3 of this series. For now it is what it is.

  10. #10
    tlafer
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    I hate this thread.

  11. #11
    texhooper
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    welcome to sbr, tlafer. i'm honored to have received your first and only post thus far in my thread. and in retrospect i should have named my post exactly what you said, because i now hate this thread as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post

    6/20

    +50% over/under 2-0, +2 units
    orioles/phillies over 9.5 (gm 2) W
    brewers/tigers under 10 (gm 2) L
    yankees/marlins over 8 (gm 2) L
    braves/red sox under 8.5 (gm 1 redux due to the push yesterday) W
    cardinals/royals under 7.5 (gm 2) L
    rangers/giants under 8.5 (gm 2) W

    home sweep 0-0, +0 units
    phillies -152 (gm 3) L
    a little better today, but still pretty shitty. this might be the last post if it doesn't turn around tomorrow. if the phillies lose with that high juice then that method is getting re-tooled or nixed immediately. i love how embarrassingly bad this has become now that i have decided to post it. really, it's awesome. but i feel it's my duty to at least finish out this series.

    just to throw this out there, the posted units are not my units, and this is not my first series playing either of these. a (as in 1, and only 1) loss in either won't kill me. i just happened to wait until what is looking like the shittiest series thus far to post them, because i'm a genuis.

    6/21
    +50% over/under 5-0, +5 units
    brewers/tigers under 8 (gm 3)
    yankees/marlins over 8.5 (gm 3)
    cardinals/royals under 8.5 (gm3)

    home sweep 0-0, +0 units
    phillies -185 (gm 4)
    padres +105 (gm 1)
    royals -110 (gm 1)
    phillies -185 (gm 1)--i haven't come across this yet, but they are technically eligible for a game one play as well. whether or not i play it that way is a different story. but should they lose, that series will have to be carried out per my ironclad, airtight rules outlined in post #1. hopefully cole will take care of business, though.

    alright, now let's push this thread down to the bottom.
    Last edited by texhooper; 06-21-09 at 01:03 AM.

  12. #12
    Jimbo42
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    Tex....
    what up bro.. I just noticed this thread... I'm kinda digging the home sweep chase....I don't chase, but here are some things that i have noticed that may help your confidence...
    In general, when a team is down 2-0 they get swept more often than they avoid the sweep. Home teams are much better at avoiding the sweep than road teams (this makes sense of course).
    The most intriguing trend is the way teams react following a change of some sort. When a team gets a fresh start, they tend to flip either for the better or for the worse.
    When a decent team has a horrible (1-7 or 2-6 type) homestand, on their next homestand, they bounce back and play very well. The opposite also applies. Same with road trips..

    Look at the Cards recently as an example:
    Jun1- Jun 8 homestand: St. Louis goes (2-8) including a 4 game sweep by Colorado...
    They go on the road(change of venue) and win the series @FLO (2 out of 3)
    But most importantly, they came home Jun16 and crushed DET 11-2 (@+105)(getting value).. won next game at +110, winning the series 2 games to 3.

    If you go back and look at most decent teams, this will play out..if they have two poor homestands in a row.. the next homestand is very strong.

    Now that I have typed this, I have no idea how this works into your system, lol, but maybe you can do something with it.

    GL brother!

  13. #13
    G's pks
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    Tex... I would like to throw a thought in... I am not saying I like the system (because it is not winning)... but that is what I am saying... so... without really checking or looking at back stats...

    Why not narrow it down to 3 teams at the max...

    Try a few different ideas/screens before the games..separate into groups on three... and see if these produce better results... To many games probably being played at this time...just a thought good luck... I think 1-2, or better yet 2-1, 3-0...would be better than 2-5, or possibly 0-7 on a system you are not sure of...

    Also if you did backtest these type chases and they are not working I would be extremely careful! Maybe even returning to paper/pen without betting them for a while... Sometimes we may backtest something and force a pick into our systems... Remember teams are swept all the time, in every new series there are always sweeps. Be careful.... G.

  14. #14
    texhooper
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    jimbo, nice to see you...well, if i'm understanding you correctly, it does fit in. the cards were a win for me after that sweep to the rockies, and i was glad they were getting the f\*\*k out of dodge after that 4 game sweep and got their act together before coming back home. if the phillies lose today, i may limit how i play these in order to reflect some kind of change in venue or something.

    i noticed awhile back that no team had lost more than a game or two at home (only counting three and 4 game series) after getting swept at home. the reason why i started taking the team to avoid the sweep is because i noticed on the day before memorial day, there were five teams facing a home sweep and they all won. i can't remember who all it was, but i know the red sox and nationals were involved. i put the two together and started playing it, and haven't had a bump in the road really until now. your input is really good, and i might start waiting until more opportune moments to begin these series. or just not do this at all!

    but anyway, thanks man!

  15. #15
    texhooper
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    g, i like what you're saying. whether or not i change anything depends on today, as stubborn and hard headed as that sounds. remember, i'm not a pro. thanks for the concern and input.

  16. #16
    texhooper
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    Goodnight, folks. Thanks for joining me in the three best days of my life.

  17. #17
    texhooper
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    ok, i've absorbed the phillies loss and i'm willing to speak again. but i'm not going to be tracking just yet. i'm not good enough to slap on a filter and know it will work undoubtedly.

    so we end the series with two losses. 7-1 in the over under chase, and 1-1 thus far in the home sweep deal. and if you have been following along, you know that philadelphia was the win i was hoping for and was the loss i was dreading. and they were the big, big loser today.

    but guess who was the winner...the san diego padres. and guess what they have that the phillies don't have...if you said "winning home record" then you win the grand prize. so maybe we can very much strengthen that approach if we ignore the teams who suck naked balls at home and stick to the ones who are going to be prone to pull themselves out of a rut at home. that's a good starting point. with this method particularly, finding a way to not chase and still garner a good win percentage is ultimately the goal. but this would have been the first loss this season using these rules, so this is not necessarily a broken angle, just needs a little fine tuning. or coarse tuning. depends on what i'm capable of.

    now, on to the +50% over under deal...when you look at the one loss that was had, which was the cards/royals, you will notice one really telling stat about the cardinals during that series...their bats were hot as a high priced whore at an electronics convention. they by themselves fvcked that series, especially with the 9th inning three-run dagger in the second game. maybe i can come up with a way to filter out a team that's peaking offensively, or is at least producing more recently than in the past. and the opposite would be said of the overs...if a team is having a drought, then elimidate them (awful show). my personal chase record is 23-1 since i've been working this angle, completely unfiltered, which is nothing to shake a stick at considering it takes almost no work whatsoever to do and is still plus a few units. a filter would be nice, though, and now that we have a loss i might be able to come up with something to narrow things down.

    good day, all. time for beer.

  18. #18
    texhooper
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    days 2 and 3 of the over under chase are 13-6-1 if played straight up since i've been playing them. i'll continue to track this on my own and might start a new thread for these plays if the record continues to hold up or remains above 55%. either way, no more chasing on this method.

    man, this feels good. i knew there was some reason i started this thread. the shame has prompted me to go that extra step to validate my efforts. this may be fool's gold here, but at least it's a step in the right direction.

    i should have titled this thread "the blossoming of a lazy baseball gambler-the life, times, and trials of texhooper".

  19. #19
    G's pks
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    days 2 and 3 of the over under chase are 13-6-1 if played straight up since i've been playing them. i'll continue to track this on my own and might start a new thread for these plays if the record continues to hold up or remains above 55%. either way, no more chasing on this method.

    man, this feels good. i knew there was some reason i started this thread. the shame has prompted me to go that extra step to validate my efforts. this may be fool's gold here, but at least it's a step in the right direction.

    i should have titled this thread "the blossoming of a lazy baseball gambler-the life, times, and trials of texhooper".
    Tex a couple more thoughts...

    If the over/under system is working for you why not stay with it? But do not chase... Just equal bets, no doubling up. At laying -110, instead of those heavy home favs...you might have something here...would be an interesting thread,,,if your system hit 13-6...

    GL whatever you decide... G.

  20. #20
    texhooper
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    well, g, that's basically what i'm saying...but i also see what you're saying...so here's what i'll do. you seem to think there could be bigger possibilities with this, and i appreciate that input.

    1) track all the games in each series played straight up regardless of win or loss.--not sure what this would have yielded, will have to go back and check-this, i think, is what g is suggesting

    2) track all the games played under the chase rules straight up (meaning after a win, stop playing that series)--this would have garnered a 21-19-2 record at this point

    3) track all games after game one loses played straight up, stopping after a win.--this is where the 13-6 record comes from.

    and yes, totals are a bigger point of emphasis for me because the juice is much more favorable. my goal is to fix that element of my approach first and foremost and look at the sides later.

    you know, g, to be honest, i've always thought you were kind of an asshole, quick to point out when others fail...but you haven't done that here. you've been pretty encouraging, which i appreciate a lot.

  21. #21
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    1) track all the games in each series played straight up regardless of win or loss.--not sure what this would have yielded, will have to go back and check-this, i think, is what g is suggesting
    from what i've played so far, that record is 37-29-3, or 56%. it looks like i have a couple of things to work with here. will continue to track.

    thanks g for the input.
    Last edited by texhooper; 06-22-09 at 12:12 AM.

  22. #22
    G's pks
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    Thanks...if you need a site for tracking these stats... I have at least one that you could use for the over unders and you could go head to head, specific teams or whatever you want. I think you could get 2-4 years of research of every over/under result..including the pushes...

    There might be something you could spot. I was thinking of trying an over/under system but still have not had the time to even start looking for some edges. But if you need the site let me know... G.

  23. #23
    EmpireMaker
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    Maybe if you can add another restriction to this system it will become more effective.

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