1. 10-13-12 06:20 PM #1
    Jago2008
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    Late steam on the NYY/ DET over.

    Whoever likes to bet totals like myself, I'd like to say to everyone on the over tonight, GL.

    This is not going to be like that pathetic Balt/NYY series, where you're hoping on Sacrifice Fly to earn a run . Balt. and NYY knew their strengths and weaknesses significantly more than this series.

    I hope you grabbed over 7.5 when it was -105.

    Fister being RH favors the Yanks in the sense of the right field porch, Detroit has some favorable match ups against a LH pitcher in Pettite. These first games in series really can go either way as teams experiment with matchups - pitching and hitting.

    This is not going to be another 2-1 snooze fest until the 9th.

    GL.
    Last edited by Jago2008; 10-14-12 at 05:53 AM.
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  2. 10-13-12 06:23 PM #2
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    ummm...when the total moves from 8 to 7.5...I'd be more inclined to pay attention to that than steam on the 7.5.
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  3. 10-13-12 06:27 PM #3
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    ummm...when the total moves from 8 to 7.5...I'd be more inclined to pay attention to that than steam on the 7.5.
    of course the total is going to go down to 7.5. We had consecutive unders in the last series. There is a slight tilt in majority to over, late steam is generally a pub. move, not "sharp" as people like to describe. But the first game in this series, I'd say we have a better chance of seeing the over between these two teams. You don't have your 3-6 batters batting a cumulative 3-30 like Baltimore.
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  4. 10-13-12 06:28 PM #4
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    ummm...when the total moves from 8 to 7.5...I'd be more inclined to pay attention to that than steam on the 7.5.
    BOL to you guy. I assume you're on the under?
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  5. 10-13-12 06:30 PM #5
    pattymayo
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    Over seems wayyy too square here. But lets face it aside from Miggy & Fielder the Tigers do not have much pop in that lineup

    and the fact that the line already went from 8 to 7.5 is quite telling I think

    Why would the Yanks, who didn't hit for shit in that Baltimore series, all of a sudden start hitting a guy like Fister?
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  6. 10-13-12 06:35 PM #6
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    I just find it interesting that the line moved against the public...we know that when the public sees both of these line-ups, they're going to back the over. So what does a line move from 8 to 7.5 mean in the line of trends?



    I am not sure the over is still the play here, even at 7.5. Good luck though!
    Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 07-03-14 at 06:12 PM.
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  7. 10-13-12 06:36 PM #7
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    I am not playing because I'd get a bad number on the under.
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  8. 10-13-12 06:37 PM #8
    pattymayo
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    I'm just surprised to see the total move down.. public has to be all over this Over, they could set it at 8.5 and still get a ton of action on the Over

    this is why I think Under is the play here
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  9. 10-13-12 06:45 PM #9
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    Over seems wayyy too square here. But lets face it aside from Miggy & Fielder the Tigers do not have much pop in that lineup

    and the fact that the line already went from 8 to 7.5 is quite telling I think

    Why would the Yanks, who didn't hit for shit in that Baltimore series, all of a sudden start hitting a guy like Fister?
    Well said Patty, you provide some great points, obviously history backs your argument. But its exactly for that reason I see this game over, among other factors. Remember Peralta has homered off Pettite, and Young has had some good numbers, Fielder Generally hits well against lefties, over .300 avg. in the playoffs and .289 in the reg. season. I realize I could be completely WRONG here, but either way this game will go over by the total by at least 1.5 pts or under by such or more. I feel after several of last nights HRs and Yankees finally putting away Balt. this is a series we'll see more offense.
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  10. 10-13-12 06:47 PM #10
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    I just find it interesting that the line moved against the public...we know that when the public sees both of these line-ups, they're going to back the over. So what does a line move from 8 to 7.5 mean in the line of trends?

    I am not sure the over is still the play here, even at 7.5. Good luck though!
    That's a very interesting post, where did you find this? Seems like a "sportsinsights" key.
    Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 07-03-14 at 06:12 PM.
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  11. 10-13-12 06:50 PM #11
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    A poster on SBR shared this site sometime back. One of the reasons I enjoy being here.

    http://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stats/
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  12. 10-13-12 06:50 PM #12
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    A poster on SBR shared this site sometime back. One of the reasons I enjoy being here.
    Thanks bud - no homo, appreciate it.
    Last edited by SBRAdmin3; 07-03-14 at 06:12 PM.
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  13. 10-13-12 06:53 PM #13
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    Again, it's the yanks and det and considering that neither pitcher is spectacular, it seems telling that the line moved against the public "square" play in favor of the minority. Like patty said, line could be at 8.5--I think it was momentarily, and the public would still be laying money on the over.
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  14. 10-13-12 06:57 PM #14
    pattymayo
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    Another reason i lean under is the weather.. i live in NJ and it is COLD tonight.. its going to be around 50 degrees at the stadium, gotta think that will affect hitters more than pitchers?
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  15. 10-13-12 07:04 PM #15
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    Another reason i lean under is the weather.. i live in NJ and it is COLD tonight.. its going to be around 50 degrees at the stadium, gotta think that will affect hitters more than pitchers?
    Dude random, this might be TMI but I was born in Westwood, NJ. That's my home area, San Diego is the new place I call home however.

    I wish you guys GL Honestly, thanks for sharing your opinions, that's why I participate in this forum. I have less than 1 unit on the over in this instance, and about a .5 unit on Florida to cover a 3 point spread n' over 32. Hopefully these will both compensate.
    Last edited by Jago2008; 10-13-12 at 11:02 PM.
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  16. 10-13-12 07:50 PM #16
    pattymayo
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    You can't cap umpire blown calls. Cano was def safe on that one, should be at least 1 NYY run so far.
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  17. 10-13-12 08:08 PM #17
    Jago2008
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    Yes I need to average at least 2 runs every 3 innings just to bring myself in order, but it looks as if another ridiculously low scoring game. I know the game isnt over but I badly need a crooked number to cover, otherwise this was my most square pick in the last 3 weeks.
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  18. 10-13-12 08:31 PM #18
    Jago2008
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    Im going to hedge this with a live bet.
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  19. 10-13-12 08:35 PM #19
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jago2008 View Post
    Whoever likes to bet totals like myself, I'd like to say to everyone on the over tonight, GL.

    This is not going to be like that pathetic Balt/NYY series, where you're hoping on Sacrifice Fly's to earn a run . Balt. and NYY knew their strengths and weaknesses significantly more than this series.

    I hope you grabbed over 7.5 when it was -105.

    Fister being RH favors the Yanks in the sense of the right field porch, Detroit has some favorable match ups against a LH pitcher in Pettite. These first games in series really can go either way as teams experiment with matchups - pitching and hitting.

    This is not going to be another 2-1 snooze fest until the 9th.

    GL.

    lol glad i stayed away
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  20. 10-13-12 08:37 PM #20
    pattymayo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jago2008 View Post
    Yes I need to average at least 2 runs every 3 innings just to bring myself in order, but it looks as if another ridiculously low scoring game. I know the game isnt over but I badly need a crooked number to cover, otherwise this was my most square pick in the last 3 weeks.
    I know the feeling.. I chased the Over in games 4 and 5 in Orioles/NYY series and felt like a jackass each time. Nothing worse than being on the Over and seeing these idiots just swinging at fukkin everything and the games going scoreless until the 5th/6th inning.

    I probably won't play another Over again for rest of playoffs. A lot easier to root for outs rather than runs, and the way NYY been playing you're more likely to hit
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  21. 10-13-12 10:38 PM #21
    hotelis
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    high five over backers!!!
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  22. 10-13-12 10:39 PM #22
    pattymayo
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    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    I know the feeling.. I chased the Over in games 4 and 5 in Orioles/NYY series and felt like a jackass each time. Nothing worse than being on the Over and seeing these idiots just swinging at fukkin everything and the games going scoreless until the 5th/6th inning.

    I probably won't play another Over again for rest of playoffs. A lot easier to root for outs rather than runs, and the way NYY been playing you're more likely to hit
    can't make this shit up

    God forbid I get a fukkin miracle 4 run btm 9th to hit an Over when I'm on the Over.... nope, only when I'm on the Under
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  23. 10-13-12 10:42 PM #23
    Jago2008
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    OMG SUZUKI 2 run homer, and B'Jesus Raul Ibanez clutching another 2 run HR!!!!!
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  24. 10-13-12 10:42 PM #24
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by matt1216 View Post
    lol glad i stayed away
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  25. 10-13-12 10:47 PM #25
    Jago2008
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    Last edited by Jago2008; 10-13-12 at 10:58 PM.
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  26. 10-13-12 10:56 PM #26
    High3rEl3m3nt
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    Sux you hedged it out and I'm glad I didn't get that "better number." At least we both didn't lose
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  27. 10-13-12 11:11 PM #27
    Jago2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    Sux you hedged it out and I'm glad I didn't get that "better number." At least we both didn't lose
    I hedged with Yanks +1.5 when it was 2-0 Detroit, something unconventional, obviously I didnt predict a 4-4 game, but at least 2-1 Yanks in a loss.
    Last edited by Jago2008; 10-13-12 at 11:23 PM.
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  28. 10-14-12 12:29 AM #28
    Jago2008
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    LOL my hedge lost. What a crazy night.
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