Phil Hughes starts for the NYY tonight. He has yacked up 22 gopher balls @ Yankee Stadium this season over 16 starts. 13 of those 16, he has given up at least one long ball. He has faced Baltimore four times on the season. He has surrendered five homers in those starts.
Adam Jones - 1 HR (2 in 34 ABs)
JJ Hardy - 1 HR
Chris Davis - 1 HR (1 in 16 ABs)
Mark Reynolds - 2 HR (2 in 12 ABs)
Reynolds looks like the leading candidate to me. He has 14 career HRs against NYY in 39 games and 7 in 17 games @ Yankee Stadium. Chris Davis has swung the best bat of the trio with a pair of two hit games. Jones has not hit well @ Yankee Stadium this year and has only nine hits in his last 47 ABs, so he seems the longest shots.
Bovada Odds to Hit HR Tonight Davis +350
Reynolds +400
Jones +400
Taking a shot with these two for 0.5 unit each. If one hits, snag a profit.