[Pair of 5s Sir]

Let's recap yesterday's results:

Nationals +240 (L)
Phillies +113 (W)
Over Rockies 10 -125 (L)
Indians (first five) -110 (W)

[reno cool]

what happened to Vonnegut? did he quit?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

what happened to Vonnegut? did he quit?

That's funny you mentioned that. I was having a conversation with TheLock yesterday about that. I recall him having two really bad days in a row, dropping like 4+ units each day, then he vanished. I put him in the category of a legit poster with documented record. Also, he was someone with a 10+ unit record, something I can't find on the threads other than myself. What do you know, have you heard anything?

[reno cool]

No, nothing. Just noticed that his thread hasn't been popping up lately. I was wondering if he went cold. This has to be very common. Going on a bad swing can make many quit, especially when you worked so hard to get into the +.
This is important to keep in mind when trying to evaluate anybody's record. If you look at a record of anyone who's been around for a while, it's more than likely to be good. And this can be solely due to luck, because the opposite side of the spectrum,(those who got particularly unlucky probably quit long ago).
What about Foster? He too had some impressive record.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

No, nothing. Just noticed that his thread hasn't been popping up lately. I was wondering if he went cold. This has to be very common. Going on a bad swing can make many quit, especially when you worked so hard to get into the +.
This is important to keep in mind when trying to evaluate anybody's record. If you look at a record of anyone who's been around for a while, it's more than likely to be good. And this can be solely due to luck, because the opposite side of the spectrum,(those who got particularly unlucky probably quit long ago).
What about Foster? He too had some impressive record.

I don't put him in the category as Vonnie. I questioned his sustainability. He would post tons of games. I put him in the shortimer category. These guys who have these 2 unit, 5 unit, 10 unit, 20 unit plays are hucksters. You can go 0-4 for one unit each, then on the fifth game make a 20 unit play, hit it and then you are up 16 units. What in the hell can you gleen from that. When I see those guys, I don't even pay attention.

Who out there have you seen with a legit 10+ unit record?

[reno cool]

Oh, I didn't know he did that. I only skimmed through his thread.

I thought Von might be alright because of some things he used to say on other topics, so I kept an eye on his picks for a while. Sounds like PiMike is making a fortune this season. I'm not aware of anybody posting winning seasons, but I don't pay particular attention.

I'm not confident that anyone posting picks here regularly is playing with an edge. Maybe Justin if he's still posting his overnights.

[jellobiafra]

Hey 5's, this is something I've thought about before but forgot to mention until reading this conversation. For someone who is such a stickler for documentation, you should post how many units you are playing each game for. I know you have had "load up" games several times this year that have really helped you (and a couple that have hurt I'm sure). Now I would never doubt your veracity (seriously) but if you are not posting how many uints those plays are worth someone who really wanted to be a hard ass about this documentation they could claim you were fudging. I also know you've said check the spreadsheet before and I have just to get an idea of what you are rolling with (nice bankroll by the way) and I've seen what the load ups are in relation to your standard wagers. (Plus we've had conversations about bankroll management so I have some idea anyway what you are doing with a "load up" game.) But spreadsheets can be manipulated after the fact and again, if someone wanted to be a ball buster they could accuse of this. In summary, I think it would be easier to follow these exactly as you are playing them if you posted the units for each play, or at least indicated how many units a "load up" is when they occur.

By the way, when the the Pick 3 contest thread is posted for today at the top of the page, check the very top of the list and you'll get an idea how many units I'm up just the past two weeks. And that's baased on one unit plays. I play them for more than that.

Good luck today buddy.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Hey 5's, this is something I've thought about before but forgot to mention until reading this conversation. For someone who is such a stickler for documentation, you should post how many units you are playing each game for. I know you have had "load up" games several times this year that have really helped you (and a couple that have hurt I'm sure). Now I would never doubt your veracity (seriously) but if you are not posting how many uints those plays are worth someone who really wanted to be a hard ass about this documentation they could claim you were fudging. I also know you've said check the spreadsheet before and I have just to get an idea of what you are rolling with (nice bankroll by the way) and I've seen what the load ups are in relation to your standard wagers. (Plus we've had conversations about bankroll management so I have some idea anyway what you are doing with a "load up" game.) But spreadsheets can be manipulated after the fact and again, if someone wanted to be a ball buster they could accuse of this. In summary, I think it would be easier to follow these exactly as you are playing them if you posted the units for each play, or at least indicated how many units a "load up" is when they occur.

By the way, when the the Pick 3 contest thread is posted for today at the top of the page, check the very top of the list and you'll get an idea how many units I'm up just the past two weeks. And that's baased on one unit plays. I play them for more than that.

Good luck today buddy.

Thanks Jell man. As it relates to my unit record keeping it is simply one unit per game regardless of the amount I wager. If betting a favorite, the unit is more than one unit to win one (1.++ to win 1.0) or a dog play where I bet 1 unit to win more than one unit (1.0 to win 1+ units). I believe the purpose of the unit recordkeeping is to give the reader an opportunity to calculate that if would tail a certain poster and bet 500 dollars (or any amount) a unit, I would be +- a certain monetary amount. Also, all of my posts are timestamped prior to the game, if anyone wants to check. I can assure anyone, there is no fudging here, not my thing. This is not about ego, it's about making cash. I am more than willing to post a losing record, that gets me determined more. The way they calculate the capping contest is how I record my play, I should of said that in the beginning to make this shorter.

As for the wager amount per game it is generally 3% of my bankroll, I have a spreadsheet that I use to calculate that amount. I also track, but do not post, my favorite record, my dog record, and my total record separately.

As for the load up play, it is generally a double of my 3% wager. This should explain everything. You still need to be disciplined on the load ups or you will get destroyed. As I have many times before, the difference between a quality capper and a degenerate, is sound money management.

I hope this clarifies the issue. Great question.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I am proud of you son on the cap contest. It's about the long term. Employ some sound money management and you got stardom on the horizon. Just note, after two hundred games selected, the record becomes more legit. You should of been tracking from the beginning of the season. You can learn alot from you losing streaks more so than you winning streaks, is my experience. Perhaps I need to sit you down for some capping therapy to see if you are up to the long term profit theory. I have always thought if you could manage the dough better, you would be very successful.

[jellobiafra]

I'm getting there 5's. Suffered a huge setback several weeks ago following a "pro" from the service plays board. I've been digging myself out of that hole ever since. Decided to just cap my own games since then - 1-3 a day usually - and only play those. It was time to see if I could hack it on my own or not. So far, the results have been positive to say the least. I know the contest above is a tiny sample size so I'm not letting it go to my head or anything.... well....not too much that is.

[MrMonkey]

Guys, I PMed Vonne last week and didn't hear back from him! Hope all is well! I'm a newbie to gambling, but from talking to Vonne (also in CBB) he has been doing the bases for years and is like you guys perceived a winner!

He seems to have the discipline to take breaks even when ahead instead of forcing things! Great guy from my talks with him who has a job and a life other than this! I think he will be back soon! Good luck guys!

MrMonkey

[TheLock]

You're all a bunch of barrelled- in apes who are buried so deep in the gutter that the rays of sunlight can't even reach you.

Enjoy the rest of your day.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Over Indians 9.5 +110

[TheLock]

Nice work on OVER. Missed it.

I like home dog SFO tonight. Thoughts?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

The Tribe pounds the Brew Crew early to put the game over.

Over Indians 9.5 +110 (W)

[jellobiafra]

Nice hit 5's...

I'm on the Angels tonight, fwiw. Nothing contrarian about it though.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

The home dog angle is good. However, Zito has been great at home. The number is not contrarian. You can make a strong argument to play the Giants and take the money. That's not contrarian for me.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Angels -1.5 +130

[TheLock]

Angels -1.5 +130

I got on this one at least.

8-0 good guys but its only the 4th inning so lets not pop the champagne yet

[jellobiafra]

The Giants might not score 8 runs (or 7) this entire series. I'm going to bed.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

The Angels have a big inning to hurt Barry and the Boys but give up three in the bottom of the ninth, to give the contrarians a heart attack. 2-0 is the Contrarian.

Angels -1.5 +130 (W)

Let's recap today's selections:

Over Indians 9.5 +110 (W)
Angels -1.5 +130 (W)

One small step for man, one giant leap for the Contrarians.