[EaglesPhan36]

Series is posted as a pick 'em, Baltimore @ Seattle. Both available @ -110. Here's the breakdown for me on a big bet.

Probable Pitchers
G1: Tillman v. Noesi
G2: Chen v. E.Ramirez
G3: Saunders v. F.Hernandez

Season Series
Baltimore leads 5-1. Swept the Ms @ home & won 2/3 in Seattle in early July.

Last 10
Orioles 6-4
Seattle 4-6

Breakdown
Orioles have won 6 of last 8 series based on 1st three games of series[series betting standard].

In Game 1, Tillman has the pitching edge. O's are 8-3 in his starts, while Seattle is just 5-12 when Noesi starts. O's are 5-1 in Tillman's road starts and 3-0 in his last three. At home, Noesi's starts have yielded just two wins in nine tries and Seattle has lost his last five starts. He is also coming back into the rotation for the first time since July. Tillman limited Seattle to one run in 7.1 IP in August in a 3-1 Baltimore win at home. He gave up just two unearned runs in 8 IP in his first start of the year on July 4th @ SAFECO.

In Game 2, the O's have won nine of 13 road starts by Chen. He's been a bit up & down lately, but gave up just two earned to Seattle in outdueling Felix Hernandez back in July, a 5-4 O's win on the road. Erasmo Ramirez has been pretty steady in five spot starts for Seattle. Seattle is 3-2 in his starts, losing both at home. This is the toss-up game in this series. If Baltimore gets this one, I think they will have already won the series or provide the hedge in Game 3.

Game 3 isn't a total gimme just because it's King Felix. Joe Saunders has been solid in his last three since coming over from Arizona. He has given up just five earned runs in his last three starts, Baltimore won two of three. Felix is on a three game slide, getting hit hard in his last two starts where the opposition scored 13 runs off of him. Despite a stellar 2.46 @ SAFECO, Seattle is only 9-7 in his starts there this season. They also chose to give him an extra day of rest, so perhaps he is wearing down. By name, he looks the favorite - but in looking at the current situation, Baltimore won't be overmatched.

Outlook
Obviously, I have Game 1 tabbed as an Orioles win and that is a must get for this series bet IMO. Seattle has lost their last five series openers when they come off of road trips, so it is a good time for Baltimore to get the jump on this series. If they snare Game 1, then worst case scenario will be a hedge opportunity in Game 3 if the teams split the first two games. Baltimore has been solid on the road all season and have won six of their last eight series. At a pick 'em, I quite like this one a bit as I am looking for a few "soft" spots to end the season in positions. Good luck whatever you did with this info.

Pick
Baltimore -110. Risking 2.75 units to win 2.50 units

[No coincidences]

Don't you find the series odds strange here? M's are +127 tonight and +100 tomorrow, yet they're -110 for the series?

[EaglesPhan36]

Not overly odd. Considering that the chalk on Felix in Game 3 is still going to be large in spite of his struggles, the prices probably balance out in the end. Baltimore firm, short favorite tonight. Game 2 pretty much a pick 'em. Game 3, Felix will have them as a firm mid-priced favorite. So you have two games where one team will be the favorite and one where it's a toss-up, so hence the series odds are -110ish. At least that is the way I see it.

[No coincidences]

Not overly odd. Considering that the chalk on Felix in Game 3 is still going to be large in spite of his struggles, the prices probably balance out in the end. Baltimore firm, short favorite tonight. Game 2 pretty much a pick 'em. Game 3, Felix will have them as a firm mid-priced favorite. So you have two games where one team will be the favorite and one where it's a toss-up, so hence the series odds are -110ish. At least that is the way I see it.

Good luck EP. I don't normally look at series prices, so maybe this is a common price.

[EaglesPhan36]

I play them here and there. Usually, you find a large range between favorites and underdogs - but you always have to take into account the pitching match-ups, etc. and not just overall who is a better team or hotter at the moment, etc. This just seems a good shot to me for a team in a playoff race vs. a team finishing out the string. If Hernandez was not starting this series, Baltimore would likely be a fairly solid favorite as far as the series price.

[Jago2008]

Nice write-up clear,cogent, well said. I do like Tillman in this first game, 1.7u.

[KidSeoul]

Got the O's tonight too! Let's get this!!!

[nrok2118]

I like this, Im gonna tail. BOL!

[EaglesPhan36]

Got the game I thought this would get for certain, so now just need one of two. Hopefully they yank it tonight and don't even make us bother with any sort of hedge.

[Barnes & Whine]

Great write up EaglesPhan. I was wondering why King Felix wasn't pitching today but now I know why.

I have the series as well and at a great price it looks like. It is interesting to decide how to hedge if you believe there is a chance the O's wont take game 2, however I think I will decide not to hedge game 2 and double up hedge on Game 3. Instead just a bigger hedge on game 3 if neccessary, but let's not let it come to that and get game 2!!! .

[ses_d]

Damn nice writeup. Wish i saw this earlier... You would have convinced me!

I was on the O's last night should we keep ridin em?

[EaglesPhan36]

Cashed after Game 2. Gots to love that.

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Excellent call here Eagles!!!

[No coincidences]

Cashed after Game 2. Gots to love that.

I had the M's last night on both the RL and ML. Still not sure how I'm not counting that money.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah that was a tough one. Bullpen BJ and then extra innings for ages.