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Houston +196 and Miami +173
Two home dogs. Same rules apply as yesterday with the Twins and Rockies. I think playing both +1.5's for a unit and both ML's for half of that suffices here. I give the Fish a better chance of prevailing, but I wouldn't rule out a one-run Astro loss either.
stupid...
just take Bos. The price is ridiculous
Weren't you saying the same thing yesterday in the Twins/Rockies thread?Originally Posted by Ryeskernatorr
If you're not willing to open your mind to big underdogs from here on out, baseball's going to be a painful rest of the season.
You're talking about going against Strasburg and Cain based on nothing other than the + odds. That is stupid. A winner is a winner regardless of the price.
EDIT: And I just looked... was never in your thread yesterday. Guess I'm not the only one that finds this "stupid".
Last edited by Ryeskernatorr; 08-28-12 at 11:47 AM. Reason: checked other thread
Wrong. Strasburg and Cain are both facing capable pitchers on the road at very high odds. Nolasco and Norris aren't world beaters, but on a given day, taking the + money on their home turf can and will cash. It's happened before and it'll happen again. That's baseball for you.
Norris is 3-1 at home with a 2.18 ERA in 54 IP this season.
I think you could also throw KC +1.5 and +180 into this mix. Another home team with a capable pitcher, and they're facing a divisional opponent -- like Miami-Washington.
also trying this idea tonight. taking royals and red sox hoping one hits. good luck. i am big on giants though. also strasburg is 4-1 vs. marlins so there is that.
Giants are capable of losing this game. If Norris is hitting his spots this turns into a bullpen game and the SF pen isn't even above average at this point. Would I bet against them? No. would I lay -215 on a straight bet for them? No.
Honestly I was thinking of the over in the Houston game, yes @ lower odds, but this total has now dropped to they key number of 7. Norris is a strikeout pitcher, he'll be pounding the strikezone. Same could be said about Cain, there will be some homeruns tonight... food for thought.
Correct. This is the dog of the night.
Do big underdogs tend to win at a higher frequency later in the season?
I'm not sure I'd take Houston at all...not even against Randy Wolf, much less Matt Cain.
norris and nolasco suck ... but i agree with u on these picks ...
confuzzled
More so than any other time in the season, though we're still a little early.
September call-ups tend to throw everything off.
not that i hate the idea but..
for simplicity's sake lets say you play each for 1u..so hou 1 to 1.96 and fish 1 to 1.73, you basically hoping for a split here from what i can tell and you very well may get but in the end you backing garbage teams laying 2u to try and profit less than 1... even while i agree i wouldn't lay that juice on the "good" teams here it just not worth it to me to lay 2 to pray i get back less than 1 when i could put it all on stl tt ov 4 (lol, joking bout last part, kinda).....
either way gl NC, i hope they both hit then you cooking with grease...
If I had to bet these two, I would be on the dogs also, having a couple of grinder pitchers at home with this return is more than reasonable. KC also has good value as a home dog. Gl going against the grain tonight!
So, you're risking 2 units on teams who should lose, to hopefully win one of the bets, thus returning around 0.7-0.9 units? Why not just risk those same 2 units on just 1 of the good teams to win 1 unit? There is a better chance you hit 1/1 of the good teams than 1/2 of the bad teams.
15-5 Strasburg (6-2 last 8) has an ERA of 1.50 in August and 0.0 against the Marlins this season (18 straight scoreless innings). He's going against 9-13 Nolasco (2-6 in last 8) who has an ERA of 6 in August and 6.35 vs the Nationals this season.
As for the Giants, 13-5 Cain has an ERA of 3.00 in August and 0.59 vs Houston this season. He's facing 5-11 Norris (1-9 in last 10, lost 7 straight decisions) whose ERA in August is 6.04 and 5.79 vs SF this season.
Obviously, MLB is fluky and there is a lot of luck involved, but I just can't see the value in either dog here. I don't prefer to lay steep juice on teams, but it seems like favorites or pass, to me.
Trying to get back into things,good luck with the picks I'am on the Rocks +150 tonight. All most bet TOR. but had to pass..................BOL.
What I do is play the RL and the ML for a unit each. If the ML cashes, I'm golden. If it's just the RL, I basically split and no harm done.
On nights like Monday with the Twins and Rockies, I cashed RL/ML/RL for 3-1 and a nice profit.
Nationals are playing HORRIBLE baseball and Strasburg is sucking bad. You're golden, good job.
Unbelievable he gave up 5 runs in 3 innings.
Want to take Astros here but don't feel it.
nice call coin .... i said i liked the pick and went around it anyway ... fck me
good call
Nats are dropping balls, missing easy double plays and doing errors, while Miami is making crazy, diving catches and incredible ground outs.
I think people are losing site of how value is calculated. You are not risking 2 units to potentially win 1 unit in a most likely scenario even. Each game is an independent event and with Miami your value comes in the % of times they win over 36.6% while value with Houston comes the % of times they win over 33.8%. While it is true our most likely winning outcomes are from a 1-1 split, there is also the possibility that both games win for a return of 3.69.
For the benefit of calculating lets assume we have a 2% edge on each game, which obviously requires being a very skilled gambler and is never a safe assumption unless you are the rare winning gambler. With our 2% edge, the 4 potential outcomes occur at these rates.
2-0 +3.69 units 13.82% +.51
0-2 -2 units 39.42% -.79
1-1 +.96 units 21.98% +.21
1-1 +.73 units 24.78% +.18
Those are the outcomes and their frequencies with the big assumption that we have a 2% edge over expectations. The total outcome is reflected combining the last column and shows that ultimately if you have a perceivable edge, you are never risking 2 units to hopefully win less than 1. In fact with our 2% edge we have a positive outcome over 60% of the time. And while we lose 2 units roughly 4 in 10 times, it is more than neutralized by the more than 1 in 8 times we sweep and the 46%+ times we split.
The real work comes in obtaining our 2% edge in the first place. For MLB this usually requires crunching statistics, competitve line shopping, and generally beating the closing numbers. It is always important to never lose site of the small edge that even the best gamblers have long term.
Last edited by MeatWad; 08-28-12 at 08:24 PM.
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After Gonzalez's 1st game with the Dodgers, how do you explain LaD? How do you explain Verlander, Sale, Strasburg & Westbrook tonight???? And how 'bout them Yanks at over -250 last night? And how about the Braves last night getting shutout/4 hits in Diego after waxing SF Sunday night? Betting faves in this League is as righteous as flushing your cash down the commode. A big thumbs up to No Coin who has the answer.
Astros could open it up now.
The Giants let Cain stay in for well over 100 pitches and 8 innings. They were just asking for him to blow the game, which he did. This day has been crazy. All the elite pitchers have sucked.
Good job on the 2 dogs. You owned today
Thanks. Too bad I played the Tribe, Rays and D'Bags to basically wipe out all profit potential.The Giants let Cain stay in for well over 100 pitches and 8 innings. They were just asking for him to blow the game, which he did. This day has been crazy. All the elite pitchers have sucked.
Good job on the 2 dogs. You owned today
Good calls. FLA instantly stood out as underpriced and live and the line moved the right way. Hou? Well...I never bet against SF...can't...too much heart involved
And just like that, Houston blows another one.
They're seriously the worst team I've seen in my 30-plus years of watching baseball. Poor Bud Norris.
Sorry NoCoin. That one was on me. As soon as I typed that we had too much heart the game was tied. If SF wins I owe you a winner.
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No coincidences gave MeatWad 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
