1. 08-06-12 05:25 PM #1
    cfunk
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    Baseball +EV - Measuring the Worth of 0.5 Run on the O/U Line

    I've been working the +EV system for about 1.5 months now and have had good results. Rather than build my own model to handicap the expected outcome percentage, I've been using AccuScore on ESPN to give me my numbers (free since I am an Insider). I haven't been blindly following the numbers, but if I find a number with +EV of greater than 6% or so, I look further into the game (recent game log, pitching stats, weather, injuries, etc.), and then decide to bet or not. I've hit 58% of my Over/Under plays since I started doing this. I know it's rudimentary but as long as I'm getting results I'm going to stick with it.

    I've got a question, hopefully it has a simple and quick answer: How much are 0.5 runs worth on the betting line? Sometimes AccuScore might give the percentages on say 8. But the line at the book is 7.5. Is there a simple way to adjust the odds or percentage so I can measure the value?

    Also, what do you do on even number totals (7, 8, 9, etc.)? I usually end up not playing them because I don't get an +EV because there is a percentage missing on the expected percentages (the percentage that the game total actually lands on the line).

    Any advice for a rookie?
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  2. 08-06-12 06:12 PM #2
    LolsMcwinsey
    LOL
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    Didn't read Lol
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  3. 08-06-12 06:22 PM #3
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
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    When your book adjusts (lets say from 7.5 to 8) what does the odds do on average?
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  4. 08-06-12 08:19 PM #4
    cfunk
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    What's funny?
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  5. 08-06-12 08:20 PM #5
    cfunk
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    Usually the odds go from -120/Even back to -110/-110
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  6. 08-06-12 08:22 PM #6
    cfunk
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    Quote Originally Posted by LolsMcwinsey View Post
    Didn't read Lol
    Why waste your time to post?
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  7. 08-06-12 09:05 PM #7
    JMon
    I'd be a lot cooler if you did.
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    So a 10 cent move on average?
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