[EVPlus]

I sat on the sidelines on the first game to see whether or not Col would collectively man up (they didn't).

Last night, I backed the Cards. After a scare in the 6th, the Cards pulled ahead for a W.

I'm tempted to pass on tonight's card. However, I'm equally tempted to back the Cards for a unit on the RL and here are some of the reasons why.

In the last 5 games, Lynn has the following numbers for Road games:

1.38 WHIP
4.23 xERA
3.54 FIP
53% Ground Ball for the season
47% Fly Ball for the season


In contrast, White, who is being called up from triple A has the following for Home games:

1.87 WHIP
6.67 xERA
6.03 FIP
65% Ground Ball (small sample size of 19)
34% Fly Ball (small sample size of 10)

Lynn's fly ball profile - especially at Coors - is disconcerting. His xERA/FIP, as you can see, is better than White.

Furthermore, as much as White wants to prove himself and stay in the show (not to mention the 7-game losing skid by the Rockies), Lynn is on a quest for redemption as well.

In his last outing, Lynn had a very disappointing performance. He gave up six runs in five innings. Although he ended up with the W, it tied for a season-worst for him. After the Cubs game, he was quoted, "The time before, I was able to make pitches and get out of the innings with runners on. Today, when they got runners on, they scored."

It's difficult to gauge what is really going on by a few snippets from a post-game interview. However, I think he had a good sense of why things didn't go well for him that game. I don't sense the arrogance of a McDonald after sh1tting the bed in his recent outings. And I don't sense a defeated man who is clueless as to what happened.

Furthermore, if he gets the W tonight, he will be in a rare company of 14-game winners (Cueto being the recent one with today's win against the Pads). Getting to 14 should be motivation enough. However, if you couple that with his need to make amends for the Cubs game, I suspect you'll see a focused Lynn tonight. And one more thing. Both he and the management saw how Westbrook almost gave the game away last in the 6th. I think (and hope) both parties will be on guard against something similar happening tonight.

Now, let's look at the Rockies. Yes, they're on a 7-game losing streak. However, as those who tried to back the Astros during their L streak found out - losing is contagious. After the game last night, sp Pomeranz was quoted, "The homer hurt, but I pitched well after that." I can't help but interpret this as Pomeranz taking what little bits of crumb off the table to feed his dignity. Tracy echoed this sentiment, "...he got the outs he needed to..."

When a sp (who was a highly well-regarded prospect last year) and the manager are not looking to see WHY things did not go their way but finding solace in a handful of things of little consequence, I wonder if their heads are so far up their a55es they'll need a state of the art GPS to find their way out.

And speaking of contagious, Giambi went on the DL with a virus not too long ago. To no surprise, others who share the locker room are suffering similar ill effects. Fowler had similar symptoms. And now it's Helton. Anyone thinking of chasing the Rockies tonight must seriously consider just how many others in the clubhouse are less then 100%. And, although Giambi is ready to return, any illness that requires "...tons of anitibiotics..." has a good chance Giambi still won't be 100% for at least another week. And even if he is back, the guy went 1-10 in July. Of course he blames this on the virus. I blame it on the fact that he's no longer on anabolic steroids and he's 41 years old.

As much as the Rockies want to stop their skid and give the people of Colorado something to cheer about, I don't think tonight is the night that happens. They have accepted that good enough will suffice. And good enough, against the Cards on this particular night, won't be.

*******************

In the last 3 days, the Cards bp threw 95 pitches by 7 pitchers.

In the last 3 days, the Rockies bp threw 193 pitches by 8.

In the last day, the Cards bp threw 38 by 3.

In the last day, the Rockies bp threw 91 by 5.

As for the quality of each team's bp, this is an issue that, IMO, can be debated. What I do see is that Lynn has a larger safety net should he be off tonight. I just hope Manuel doesn't catch the Sciocia/Baker/Roenike disease and leave him out there too long. This MUST be factored in should you decide to back the Cards tonight.

*******************

Halladay, as we've seen, has been on a rampage. He knows this park pretty damn well and it showed. I strongly suspect that other Stl batters have picked his brain on to how best hit long balls at Coors. I also believe that success inspires success. In the recent series between the Bucs and Rockies, McCutchen's epic long ball brought out similar performances from his team mates in the following game. I think the Cards batters will follow a similar pattern after what Halladay has been doing. In other words, even if Halladay regresses tonight, I find it hard to accept that ALL Cards bats will grow cold.

*******************

Now let's take a look at the home ump trends.

Home team is 6-1 in Eddings' last 7 games behind home plate.
Home team is 5-1 in Eddings' last 6 Thursday games behind home plate.
EDGE: COL

Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Eddings behind home plate.
Rockies are 1-5 in their last 6 games with Eddings behind home plate.
EDGE: STL

When the tragic shootings in Aurora took place recently, I couldn't help but suspect the umps in Rockies games would show a bias towards them - especially at home games. However, now I think it will be business as usual as the nation moves forward. In that regard, I don't believe Eddings will be any more generous to the Rockies.

*******************

The line opened at Stl -151 or so at most offshores. Since then, it has steadily moved in favor of Stl and now sits anywhere from -153 to -165.

I do NOT recommend laying this much chalk. This is baseball after all, where crazy sh!t happens on a weekly basis.

However, given where both teams are at right now physically, mentally, and in the standings, I feel good enough about the RL that I'll put one unit at +100 to -105.

For others who may want extra insurance, Stl at -1 might be worth considering.

Tail, fade, or pass. It's your br and your decision.

[k22t]

Nice analysis..

[EVPlus]

Thanks. I do NOT want anyone to make a decision based solely on my write up. It should be used as additional information to whatever lean someone may already have based on his capping. This is why I never use words like "lock" or "pound" and I NEVER hint that I own a crystal ball.

BOL on your plays.

[JMon]

EV...nice, on ml here..

Just a small situation to add here is simply fading the Rockies at home after allowing 8 or more runs has been golden this year setting at 2-15 SU with an average margin of defeat of 2.5 runs! Confine this to game 3 of a series and we have the Rockies in a 2-17 SU mark since Aug. of 2008.

bol bud

[Hectorcist]

I'm on the cards also... Let's get this!

[EVPlus]

JMon and Hectorcist - nice to see that cappers I respect agree. Let's see if we're right. BOL.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Nice work EP. Lots of sharp reasoning and angles there. If I may also add....Coors Field is a nice place to play the -1.5 run line. Not a lot of 1 run games in Colorado. I usually dont like taking the road -1.5 but I also think the Cards have a good shot at covering tonight especially with Holliday on a rampage and an unstable White on the mound for the Rockies. It's also prudent to check the daily weather in Denver anytime you wager for rain showers and tonight it's fairly clear.

Best of Luck.

[EVPlus]

^^^Thanks very much, MDF. Slow start so far. White is pitching his heart out - as I knew he would. I'm hoping my read on the Rockies bp comes to fruition in the later innings.

[MatI]

Rockies not going to need much of their BP at this rate. Really solid analysis though EV.

...and as i type, Cards score! Tied game.

[Vinnie Paz]

The fukk burkman

[EVPlus]

Lynn should have been pulled after the 5th. This is the EXACT type of pu55y management that loses games. Instead of building on 2-1 lead, it's back to ground zero.

[MatI]

Lynn should have been pulled after the 5th. This is the EXACT type of pu55y management that loses games. Instead of building on 2-1 lead, it's back to ground zero.

[Dmoneytx]

Great write up I thought. I almost went big on this. So happy I only tagged it on a 100 parlay. Such a horrible decision to keep Lohse in I thought. Gonna be a tough loss. Pulling a guy up from AAA & he beats ya, has gotta feel pretty crappy for St Louis.
Feel bad for those who lost big on this game. Cards sucked hard tonight on offense. Bigtime.

[EVPlus]

^^^Yes, the beginning of the end was when Lynn was left in after the 5th. Second mistake was replacing him with another righty when the Rockies were looking at right-handed pitching all night. The 3-run dinger was enough to put the wind back in Col's sails and it really didn't matter who was on the mound for the Cards after that.

The bottom line is my play lost and I apologize to anyone who tailed based on my write up.

[italianbandit]

I like your posts EV, keep posting.

[EVPlus]

I like your posts EV, keep posting.

If I have a play I feel good about, I will post again the future. The write-ups may not be nearly as extensive. In fact, I may just give a play without any write up in the future.

[JMon]

If I have a play I feel good about, I will post again the future. The write-ups may not be nearly as extensive. In fact, I may just give a play without any write up in the future.

Don't sweat it bro...I liked STL way before your post.

It sucks when you have a play that you feel so good about, too a point you write about it, spend time and when you share it.....it loses. This sucks...but I think most understand the ways of gambling, do appreciate any effort. Most importantly understand that even the best play on paper is, in fact, uncertain.

Do what you do..and don't think otherwise.

[Dmoneytx]

Good job EV. Keep up the good work. It was a great write up. Cards just sucked on offense.