[Ghenghis Kahn]

i'm thinking about just fading houston and milwacky then tailing the red hot a's for the rest of the season.

anyone think this will be profitable?

[nrok2118]

I just started fading Houston the other day. Probably gonna martingale losses, maybe some filtering but dont see them winning more than a few games in a row. They are bad enough that luck couldnt get them more then 3-4 in a row.

[InTheDrink]

Sick system

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i think there's more value in fading milwacky though. they are often favored. houston not so much.

[HoulihansTX]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...stros-win.html

[borednaz]

I think Houston is probably the single most profitable fade for the rest of the season. That or the Yankees. Because they have like 5-6 left to win the entire rest of the season. They are often pretty big chalk so if you can avoid them in Hitters parks you can pretty safely cash.

[pattymayo]

This is a system I'd like to track. Fade teams from here on out, as records will balance out.

For instance: Yanks are 59-39, they have 64 games left to play.

If they play .500 ball the rest of the way and go 32-32, they will finish the season 91-71. I think most of us expect the Yankees to win more than 91, but lets face it, they won't win 101+ (no team probably will) that leaves about a 6-8 game window with games we'd expect the Yankees to win.. so maybe they go 37-27 the rest of the way, finishing at 96-66

Yankees aren't the best example, but take a look at some of the top teams around the league-- a lot of them who find themselves 15+ games over .500 at this moment will more than likely play .500 ball the rest of the way. Lot of fading opportunities there.

Does this make sense?

[convick]

I think Houston is probably the single most profitable fade for the rest of the season. That or the Yankees. Because they have like 5-6 left to win the entire rest of the season. They are often pretty big chalk so if you can avoid them in Hitters parks you can pretty safely cash.

Fade the Astros by taking the other team on the runline. Of their last 10 losses, 9 have been by 2+ runs. A quick glance at their losses before the all-star break also show a high percentage of losses by multiple runs.

[blackeyeshamus]

sounds like a pretty f@#kin' good idea.

[King Mayan]

Hours???

I cover my eyes and point. Winners left and right.

That's all I need.

[yahoonino]

go under on miami and tampa,,,all year and you will make a lot of money

[BuddyBear]

None of that system and martingale stuff works. Believe me it does not. Everyone and their brother has tried it at some point in their gambling career. Eventually the market will catch up (and it already has for Houston) that in the long run you will basically lose fading them each game.

The single best way remains the most obvious: Handicap the game.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

are you sure the market caught up with houston?

[Ace_of_Spades]

Probably should have started fading Houston a while ago. Missed the boat on this one myself.

[face]

Only astros pitcher to be careful of is harrell

[Ace_of_Spades]

Hours???

I cover my eyes and point. Winners left and right.

That's all I need.

You're to busy injecting steroids into your ass.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

going with...

pitt -141
washington +123
oakland -101

[Cuse0323]

Best for your sanity to just stare at a wall for the normal hours you would cap then never watch baseball and consider that money you would have lost as a bonus.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

**** melo, he's a ball hoggin douche.

[Cuse0323]

**** melo, he's a ball hoggin douche.

Damn Wasn't hating on ya. I just think that's the most profitable thing to do with baseball.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

pal i know you weren't hating on me. it was just a random rant. i just don't like melo.

[JMon]

None of that system and martingale stuff works. Believe me it does not. Everyone and their brother has tried it at some point in their gambling career. Eventually the market will catch up (and it already has for Houston) that in the long run you will basically lose fading them each game.

The single best way remains the most obvious: Handicap the game.

[Cuse0323]

pal i know you weren't hating on me. it was just a random rant. i just don't like melo.

gotcha, best of luck with your plays.

[stevenash]

i'm thinking about just fading houston and milwacky then tailing the red hot a's for the rest of the season.

anyone think this will be profitable?

OK, starting with tonight's games, let's track Houston and the Brewers right here in this thread.

Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
Fri 7/27		959 Washington Nationals R Detwiler - L	+1½ -190+2½ -310+1 -131	+121 Listed	o8½ +105o8 -115o9 +137o7½ -132o9½ +160
8:10PM		960 Milwaukee Brewers M Fiers - R	-1½ +165-2½ +255-1 +111	-131 Listed	u8½ -125u8 -105u9 -157u7½ +112u9½ -185

Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros
Fri 7/27		957 Pittsburgh Pirates J Karstens - R	-1½ +105-2½ +168-1 -124	-150 Listed	o8½ -110o8 -130o9 +117o7½ -145o9½ +142
8:05PM		958 Houston Astros J Lyles - R	+1½ -125+2½ -195+1 +104	+140 Listed	u8½ -110u8 +110u9 -137u7½ +125u9½ -162

[ridims]

lyles isn't so bad at home. pirates rocked him recently when the astros were in pittsburgh.

karstens has a great record against houston but his road record is not great.

ump favours pittsburgh tonight

[ronzer]

add COL fade? they are worse than the brewers.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

going with...

pitt -141
washington +123
oakland -101

looked like a disastrous 0-3 going into the 9th but houston and baltimore came through. milwacky is a frustrating team for me, i tail them they blow big leads, i fade them and they shutout the team i'm on. i'll try one more time fading them tomorrow. let's see what happens. if that doesn't work, i might drop milwacky and include colorado as the above poster mentioned...

day 1:

2-1 +1.00 units

[Ghenghis Kahn]

for tomorrow, going with

pitt -167
washington -117
oakland +107

[Ghenghis Kahn]

for tomorrow, going with

pitt -167
washington -117
oakland +107

day 2:

3-0 +3.07 units

total:

5-1 +4.07 units

[Ghenghis Kahn]

for tomorrow...

pitt -144
washington -140
oakland +111

[Ghenghis Kahn]

for tomorrow...

pitt -144
washington -140
oakland +111

day 3:

1-2 -1.44

total:

6-3 +2.63

[Smutbucket]

keep up the good info. ghengis

[PRIMO99]

nice call face

harrell is a gamer

[Up and Up]

so now what do you do since hou is playing mil? what a horrible series this is going to be...

[Ghenghis Kahn]

so now what do you do since hou is playing mil? what a horrible series this is going to be...

they cancel each other out.

for today...

oakland +120