[gregm]

2011 baseball thread ( 244-187 +51.21)
Rangers to win world series +500 risk 3
Dodgers to win world series +1000 risk 1
Cardinals to win world series +1400 risk 1
Nationals to win NL pennant +450 risk 3


Nationals -1 -144 risk 1.44

Nationals (first 5) -.5 -130 risk 1.3


Strasburg coming off a rough start, he looked sharp in the first 5 against Atlanta but just imploded in the 6th. I don't think you will see that much this year, he seemed to tire in the sixth so will be interesting to watch the pitch count today. He has fantastic numbers here this year on the road and looked good against the Mets in his first outing against them. Mets are reeling, 1-11 in their last 12, on a 5 game losing streak, 10 games behind the nationals and 6 games behind Pitt and Atlanta for a wild card spot. I dont think Hefner (1-3 , 5.85 ERA) is the guy to stop this slide for the Mets, I amhoping the Nationals can get to him early.

Giants -1 -137 risk 1.37

6901 SDG C.Quentin total bases
6902 SFO M.Cabrera total bases -135 risk 2.7

The Giants are still one of the better teams stat wise to bet against with the +1.5 run line with their high number of one run wins, last year I think they led the league last year in one run games, but I cant do it with the Giants rolling ( 9-2 in their last 11 and 2.5 game lead over LA) and Lincecum maybe starting to turn this season around ( just 2 runs in last two starts against Phillies and Astros). Especially facing the Padres and Marquis.

Cardinals -1 -110 risk 1.10

White sox -1 -163 risk 1.63

Peavy hasnt been sharp lately but I just cant take the Twins here with any confidence. They are 5-11 in the their last 16, bullpen is overworked, Blackburn is coming off a solid outing against KC but was dismal before that in May and June and was sent to the minors. White Sox tied with Detroit for first and you have guys like Dunn and Konerko juts killing the ball, the White Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 at home and hitting .318 since late June at home. They should be able to get to Blackburn.

Angels -1 -173 risk 1.73

6801 KAN A.Gordon total bases
LAA M.Trout total bases -135 risk 1.35

I am not as confident in this prop as I was earlier, gordon has been impressive and Trout coming off the end to that 12 game hitting streak.

I thought about the -1.5 run line here but The Angels looked awful last night and Hochevar has been pretty impressive lately (3-1, 2.50 ERA in last 6 starts). Angels are now 5 games behind the Rangers and tied with Oakland in the West and tied with Oakland in the wild card race as well. You know the White sox or tigers are going to be there in the AL wild card race and that Al wild card race is going to be tight. Angels need to win games and series against teams like the Royals.

Reds -1 -118 risk 1.18

I actually like betting on Bailey more on the road and he has been impressive lately (4-0, 2.64 ERA in last 4 starts) and he has phenomenal numbers against the Astros in his career and a 2-0 0.60 ERA at Minute maid park. Norris has lost 7 straight starts but does have much better numbers at home. The one thing I used to like about Houston was betting on Wandy at home and now they send him to Pittsburgh for three minor league guys? What can you say about the Astros, 2-21 in their last 23 games, impressive.

[gregm]

Missed this one

Phillies -1 +106 risk 1

Phillies -135 risk 1.35

Phillies 2nd half wager -105 risk 1.05 Betdsi

Brewers bullpen.

[Smutbucket]

nice picks today. good luck

[gregm]

Thanks Sm. Thats it for me and Lincecum, two games is not a turnaround. Just horrible numbers today, alot of strikeouts but 7 hits, 3 walks, 2 homeruns, 5 earned runs all in 4.2 innings. That isnt going to get it no matter how many strikeouts you throw over the last 3 games.

Arizona -1 -134 risk 1.34

7601 COL C.Gonzalez hits+runs+RBI
7602 ARI J.Upton hits+runs+RBI -120 risk 1.2

I am going to to continue backing this Arizona team while the offense is killing it. 58 runs in the last 7 games and 45 runs in their last 5 games at home, one of the better home teams in baseball . Francis has atrocious numbers against Arizona overall (0-6 +7.68 ERA) though its been awhile since he faced them but Upton, Young and Drew all have good numbers against Francis. Cahill has been getting hit as well but Bell has a pretty liberal strike zone and Colorado is just dismal this month, going to stay away from the game total here.

Tigers -1 -118 risk 1.18

[gregm]

2964 LOS/STL no score 1st inn -105 risk 1.05

4963 LOS M.Kemp total bases -125 risk 1.25
4964 STL M.Holliday total bases

1965 COL scores first
1966 ARI scores first +100 risk 1

Another unit on reds -1 -118 risk 1.18