1. 07-25-12 09:57 PM #36
    hydrosmak
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    Astros and value are two different/opposite things...
    Sure buddy. Value is everywhere. Some will never find it because they are clouded with "baseball smarts". You watch the Astros and wonder how they ever win a game. But they will get around 60 wins this year.
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  2. 07-25-12 10:13 PM #37
    leetreaper
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    Sure bro keep dreaming.
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  3. 07-25-12 10:48 PM #38
    LT Profits
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    So.....Why is Cordero still in the league again?
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  4. 07-25-12 10:50 PM #39
    Moneyliner7
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    I say again these 9th inning beats are getting old.. 2 outs top of the ninth.. Lol f me
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  5. 07-25-12 10:50 PM #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    Astros and value are two different/opposite things...
    Actually, look at what happened. I had the lead in the ninth inning at + odds two days in a row. Wouldn't you take that scenario if it happened 1000 times? So yes, the Astros were indeed +EV based on how the games played out. Even a split would have been profitable.
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  6. 07-26-12 06:23 AM #41
    leetreaper
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    Its just a coincidence in the 9th, they could be well down in any other inning both games...
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  7. 07-26-12 07:03 AM #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    Its just a coincidence in the 9th, they could be well down in any other inning both games...
    That's not how you look at it. The way the game plays out is important because it determines what the true odds were of your team winning and whether or not the play was really +EV. I was on the right side both nights considering that I was getting + odds both times. Shit happens.
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  8. 07-26-12 07:06 AM #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    Its just a coincidence in the 9th, they could be well down in any other inning both games...
    Besides, based on this logic, the teams that won the would always be +EV and the team that lost the game would always be -EV, which is obviously not true.
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  9. 07-26-12 08:17 AM #44
    leetreaper
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    I see your point but playing Astros at this point of the season and with them losing games 20+ games in a row is just not smart at all...
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  10. 07-26-12 08:36 AM #45
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    I see your point but playing Astros at this point of the season and with them losing games 20+ games in a row is just not smart at all...
    Actually, that's the exact opposite of true. Books are undervaluing them after a long skid. The books want to juice the hell out of whoever is playing them so guys such as yourself say, "The Astros suck! I'm betting on the Reds," etc. whoever their opponent is. Just as they are overvaluing the A's right now. LT is a smart cat and knows what he's talking about.

    Baseball is a long season. There are value in teams like Houston, the Twins, the Mariners. You just have to find the spots. LT had the lead in the 9th twice as he mentioned. He picked good spots. Look at the Columbus Blue Jackets in hockey at the end of last season. Were the worst team in the league and finished the season winning 5 of their last 6 games. They won games @ St. Louis (best home record in hockey), against Detroit, and Florida ( 2 playoff teams). They were large dogs in all these games...good bettors take advantage of spots such as this.
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  11. 07-26-12 09:26 AM #46
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Niņo View Post
    Actually, that's the exact opposite of true. Books are undervaluing them after a long skid. The books want to juice the hell out of whoever is playing them so guys such as yourself say, "The Astros suck! I'm betting on the Reds," etc. whoever their opponent is. Just as they are overvaluing the A's right now. LT is a smart cat and knows what he's talking about.

    Baseball is a long season. There are value in teams like Houston, the Twins, the Mariners. You just have to find the spots. LT had the lead in the 9th twice as he mentioned. He picked good spots. Look at the Columbus Blue Jackets in hockey at the end of last season. Were the worst team in the league and finished the season winning 5 of their last 6 games. They won games @ St. Louis (best home record in hockey), against Detroit, and Florida ( 2 playoff teams). They were large dogs in all these games...good bettors take advantage of spots such as this.
    This doesnt make sense at all, i dont care what books are doing with the line, the point is Astros lost/done at this point of the season, so unless they start showing some signs of life you will make more money fading them than betting, my 2cents...
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  12. 07-26-12 09:54 AM #47
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post
    This doesnt make sense at all, i dont care what books are doing with the line, the point is Astros lost/done at this point of the season, so unless they start showing some signs of life you will make more money fading them than betting, my 2cents...
    So you don't understand the value in betting a dog where the books are already overjuicing the favorite....then the public helps by betting the favorite, further raising the line. Long term sports betting is about finding value not winners. In a long season such as baseball, your value = your profit, not your winning %.

    Your argument/stance reminds me of a guy at a poker table who sucks out as a 3/1 dog and then doesn't see how his play was incorrect.
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  13. 07-26-12 10:12 AM #48
    bigant78
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    I will take the astros two days in a row. After killing it on sunday with two huge underdogs (sea,red sox). There is money to go around on a losing underdog.LT hitting about 50% on plays. The only one closest to him his chaz. I will follow all day long
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  14. 07-26-12 10:42 AM #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Niņo View Post

    Actually, that's the exact opposite of true. Books are undervaluing them after a long skid. The books want to juice the hell out of whoever is playing them so guys such as yourself say, "The Astros suck! I'm betting on the Reds," etc. whoever their opponent is. Just as they are overvaluing the A's right now. LT is a smart cat and knows what he's talking about.

    Baseball is a long season. There are value in teams like Houston, the Twins, the Mariners. You just have to find the spots. LT had the lead in the 9th twice as he mentioned. He picked good spots. Look at the Columbus Blue Jackets in hockey at the end of last season. Were the worst team in the league and finished the season winning 5 of their last 6 games. They won games @ St. Louis (best home record in hockey), against Detroit, and Florida ( 2 playoff teams). They were large dogs in all these games...good bettors take advantage of spots such as this.
    Quote Originally Posted by leetreaper View Post

    This doesnt make sense at all, i dont care what books are doing with the line, the point is Astros lost/done at this point of the season, so unless they start showing some signs of life you will make more money fading them than betting, my 2cents...
    El Nino explained it perfectly and yes, that is exactly what the books do and the value lies with the shit teams a lot of times. And no, I am not saying to blindly tail teams on long losing streaks, you still need to cap each game individually.
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  15. 07-26-12 10:44 AM #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigant78 View Post
    I will take the astros two days in a row. After killing it on sunday with two huge underdogs (sea,red sox). There is money to go around on a losing underdog.LT hitting about 50% on plays. The only one closest to him his chaz. I will follow all day long
    55.4% but who's counting. But units are all that matter in ML sports like MLB and NHL
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  16. 07-26-12 10:44 AM #51
    readyfordeals
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    any lays for the early games? thank you in advance.
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  17. 07-26-12 10:53 AM #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by readyfordeals View Post
    any lays for the early games? thank you in advance.
    A's / Jays Under, will put thread up now
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  18. 07-26-12 11:18 AM #53
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    SECOND early play on Rays / O's Under
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