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Texas Rangers -117 over L.A. Angels is my play of the evening.
Geeked for this game.
First off, you can not argue 284 plate appearance sample size.
I know there are a few of you out there that disagree with pitcher versus hitter past history result, but how can you ignore or neglect this.
Haren is 6 and 8 with a 4.86 ERA with a crappy 1.41 WH/IP ratio this year.
PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP missG Adrian Beltre 63 56 24 7 1 3 11 7 11 .429 .492 .750 1.242 0 0 1 0 0 Michael Young 58 55 18 3 0 1 11 2 9 .327 .345 .436 .781 0 1 0 0 3 Ian Kinsler 36 33 8 3 0 0 0 3 6 .242 .306 .333 .639 0 0 0 0 1 Elvis Andrus 27 24 9 2 0 0 1 0 3 .375 .400 .458 .858 2 0 0 1 0 David Murphy 23 22 9 1 0 2 7 1 3 .409 .435 .727 1.162 0 0 0 0 0 Yorvit Torrealba 21 19 3 2 0 0 1 0 5 .158 .200 .263 .463 1 0 0 1 0 Josh Hamilton 19 18 6 1 0 1 3 1 3 .333 .368 .556 .924 0 0 0 0 0 Mike Napoli 19 17 4 0 0 0 1 2 5 .235 .316 .235 .551 0 0 0 0 0 Nelson Cruz 15 14 5 1 0 1 3 1 1 .357 .400 .643 1.043 0 0 0 0 0 Alberto Gonzalez 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 1 0 0 0 Total 284 260 86 20 1 8 39 17 46 .331 .374 .508 .881 3 2 1 2 4
He's regressed from an ace starter to a mediocre starter. He (like Beckett for instance) is a shell of what he once was.
Rangers bats have own Haren in the past. (see above chart)
Texas is an outstanding road team at 27 and 21.
Texas leads the American league in batting average and on base percentage.
Texas loves to face right handed starters. They are 17-5 against righties in their last 22.
(you can argue LAA is 11-1 in their last 12 against a lefty starter too, but this is a solid starter in Harrison)
Texas smacks mediocre right handed pitching very hard.
Texas has won 11 out of 12 when Harrison starts on the road as a favorite.
Let's talk about Harrison.
He's coming off a complete game 5 hit shutout.
He looks as good as any left handed starter in the game right now.
He's 12-4 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.23 WH/IP ratio. Those are across the board rock solid numbers.
The current Angel line up is 25 for 113 lifetime vs the lefty .(214)
On paper, Texas the clear play here.
I'm not going large though, just 2*.
Few reasons, even though Texas is the better match up, Angels have sticks that can make a 2-0 deficit into a 2-2 tie with a Harrison mistake (Trout, Pujols, Trumbo)
Is Texas a lock here? No. (no such thing as a lock anyway)
Is Haren capable of turning back the clock and throw a 7 inning gem? Yes
And LAA is at home.
Those three reasons is why I am not going gaga over this play.
But, Texas can rake with the best of them, as a matter of fact, only team that stacks up to them is NYY.
Harrison is clearly the better starter here, and Texas line up is built to punish right handed pitchers like Haren.
You don't have to tail, fade if you want it's all good, but........
I'm on Texas -117 2*
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Originally Posted by No coincidences
