Two lefties off to subpar starts to the 2009 season square off at Fenway Park, with the Rays’ Scott Kazmir (3-3, 6.00) set to oppose Jon Lester (2-2, 5.11).
Boston fell behind 3-0 halfway through Friday’s series-opener against Tampa Bay, but rallied for seven unanswered runs to cruise to the 7-3 victory. The Red Sox are on impressive streaks of 17-5 overall, 76-32 at Fenway Park, 11-3 against division rivals, 5-0 on Saturday, 5-0 against southpaw starters and 16-2 when playing on grass.
Tampa Bay has followed up a 4-11 slump by going 6-3 in its last nine. The Rays have also won six of their last nine against the A.L. East. But otherwise Joe Maddon’s club is in funks of 6-9 on the road, 1-8 versus left-handed starters and 0-6 on Saturday.
The Rays lead the season series 5-3, but they’re still just 15-49 in their last 64 games at Fenway Park (playoffs included).
Kazmir has given up six earned runs in three of his last four starts, losing all three contests, including Monday’s 8-4 home setback to the Orioles. However, two of Kazmir’s three wins have come on the road, including a 7-2 victory at Boston on April 8 when he surrendered just a single run on five hits in six innings. Overall, Kazmir is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in three starts on the highway.
Including the April 8 win in Boston in his 2009 season debut, Kazmir is 7-7 with a 3.52 ERA in 22 career regular-season starts against the Red Sox, including 5-4 with a 2.88 ERA in 12 starts at Fenway Park. Also, Tampa Bay has won 14 of Kazmir’s last 17 starts on Saturday and 14 of his last 20 against teams with a winning record.
Lester beat the Yankees 6-4 in New York on Monday, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks while striking out 10 over seven innings. The southpaw was terrific in his last two home efforts, holding the Yankees and Orioles to a combined two runs on 11 hits with 16 strikeouts in 13 innings.
With Lester on the hill, Boston is on runs of 39-17 overall (4-0 overall), 22-4 at home and 20-8 against the A.L. East. Also, including two playoff starts in October, Lester is 4-3 with a 4.17 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against Tampa Bay. However, he lost to Kazmir on April 8, giving up five runs on eight hits in five innings of that 7-2 defeat. Prior to that, Boston had gone 7-0 with Lester pitching against the Rays in the regular season.
The over is 16-5 in Kazmir’s last 21 outings overall, 6-1 in his last seven on the highway, 10-1 in his last 11 against divisional rivals and 8-0 in his last eight against the Red Sox and 4-0 in his last four at Fenway Park. Additionally, the Red Sox have topped the total in six of Lester’s last eight home starts, each his last four starts on Saturday and each his last eight starts in the second game of a series.
Boston carries “over” trends of 19-7-3 overall (7-2-2 last 11), 9-2 versus left-handed starters, 6-2-1 at home and 11-3-2 against losing teams. Finally, the over/under had alternated in the first seven head-to-head meetings this season before Friday’s game landed right on the posted total.
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