I think I understand now, I'll treat each chase as one unit, so if I win on (2) I will win 2 units, on (3) it'll be 3 units, and so forth. I know it's a little more risky that way, but from the looks of it you seem to hit most if them pretty early.
 SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks |
Best Sportsbooks List
|
|
| |||||
| #1 FanDuel | SBR rating 4.8/5 | Review | #6 BetRivers | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review | #2 Caesars | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #7 Fanatics | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review |
| #3 DraftKings | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #8 Betway | SBR rating 3.8/5 | Review | ||
| #4 BetMGM | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #9 Borgata | SBR rating 3.5/5 | Review | ||
| #5 bet365 | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #10 ClutchBet | SBR rating 2.9/5 | Review | ||
-
07-30-12 05:40 PM #36
-
07-31-12 08:18 AM #37
yes, you bet "to win" 1 unit. so that means you will bet slightly less if it's
a dog or slightly more if a favorite. I stay within a range on odds.
that is why some are RL. then, if it goes forward you wager exactly enough to get back what was lost on the prior + "to win" 1 unit.
I haven't had to bet a fourth game yet.
I may decide to cancel the chase/fade if I don't like the odds
in any hypothetical fourth game.
Some say a unit is written in stone as 1% of your BR.
But if I decide to cancel the chase at Game 4 or you do,
then you can wager more.
Because the odds change each game, all you have to do is keep
track of how much you've wagered so far in each game of the chase.
it's always whatever you've lost + "to win" one addtl. unit.
Reds fade completed (1)
Red Sox chase completed (1)
Pirates chase carries forward.
Summary:
15 chases/fades won on first game.
3 on second game.
2 on third game.
active
(2) Pirates chase (+100)
(1) White Sox chase (-131)
(1) Indians chase (+111)Last edited by Snowball; 07-31-12 at 08:32 AM.
-
07-31-12 06:20 PM #38
note: if you took Pirates earlier when Dempster was listed
you may have to make another bet at -140
because Coleman is pitching for Cubs instead.
-
08-01-12 09:00 AM #39
Pirates chase completed (2)
White Sox chase completed (1)
Summary:
16 chases/fades won on first game.
4 on second game.
2 on third game.
active
(2) Indians chase (-105)
(1) Athletics chase (-124)
(1) Dodgers chase (-126)
(1) Tigers chase (-104)
Last edited by Snowball; 08-01-12 at 01:44 PM. Reason: added Tigers.
Points Awarded:
thekidfanky gave Snowball 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
-
08-02-12 07:48 AM #40
Tigers chase completed (1)
Summary:
17 chases/fades won on 1st game
4 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd game
active
(3) Indians chase
(2) A's chase
(2) Dodgers chase
(1) Red Sox RL chase
-
08-02-12 08:09 AM #41
-
08-03-12 06:39 AM #42
snowball, we still chasing indians or no?
Last edited by thekidfanky; 08-03-12 at 06:42 AM.
-
08-03-12 11:30 AM #43
A's chase completed (2)
Summary:
17 chases/fades won on 1st game
5 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd game
active
(4) Indians chase +150
(2) Dodgers chase -160
(2) Red Sox RL chase +100
yes, we will continue the Indians chase, because they are +141,
and if you consider the cost of the chase it was inexpensive.
if they lose tonight, i may cancel it.Last edited by Snowball; 08-03-12 at 11:33 AM.
-
08-04-12 10:45 AM #44
Dodgers chase completed (2)
Summary:
17 chases/fades won on 1st game
6 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd game
1 discontinued after 4
active
(3) Red Sox -1.5 (-105)
discontinued: Indians. Even though they are +180, the team has lost 7 straight
and is in Detroit.
-
08-05-12 08:35 AM #45
I posted Mets last night but didn't include in the chase,
stuff like that happens sometimes, but this is the main focus.
Red Sox had it and blew it again. How many times does it look like
the RL will cover and then it's gone ? I don't know, but this is definitely
the last game of the Red Sox RL chase today. Win or Discontinue, because
there's no way I am touching them against the Rangers.
active: Red Sox RL +105 (4th)
-
08-05-12 06:47 PM #46
Good job snowball, glad the red sox finally won a game, and covered the RL for our chase! Looking forward to the next chases!
-
08-06-12 12:42 PM #47
Summary:
17 chases/fades won on 1st game
6 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd game
1 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 4
active
(1) Rangers chase (-134)
-
08-07-12 09:41 AM #48
Summary:
17 chases/fades won on 1st game
6 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd game
1 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 4
active
(2) Rangers chase
(1) Dodgers chase
(1) Phillies chase
-
08-07-12 09:45 AM #49
good luck with the rangers chase, i have them as well
lets see what the dempster can do tonight
-
08-08-12 09:53 AM #50
Rangers chase completed (2)
Phillies chase completed (1)
Summary:
18 chases/fades won on 1st game
7 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd game
1 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 4
active
Dodgers chase (2)
-
08-09-12 09:25 AM #51
Dodgers chase completed (2)
Summary:
18 chases/fades won on 1st game
8 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd game
1 on 4th game
1 discontinued after 4th
active:
Cardinals chase (-135)
Tigers chase (-115)
-
08-10-12 08:46 AM #52
Cards chase completed (1)
Summary:
19 chases/fades won on 1st game
8 on 2nd
2 on 3rd
1 on 4th
1 discontinued after 4th
active
Tigers chase (2)
Astros chase (1)
Orioles chase (1)
Indians fade (1) (Red Sox ML)
-
08-11-12 10:05 AM #53
Tigers chase completed (2)
Astros chase completed (1)
Orioles chase completed (1)
Indians fade completed (1)
Summary:
22 chases/fades won on 1st game
9 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd
1 on 4th
1 discontinued after 4th
Success Rate: 97.14%
active
Pirates RL chase (+125)
White Sox chase (-146)
Diamondbacks chase (-129)
Orioles RL chase (+150)
-
08-11-12 04:28 PM #54
Good job bro, going to start tailing again after ******* up a lot lol
-
08-11-12 09:31 PM #55
Hey buddy how do you pick your games? Just wondering what kind of system you use! So excited about continuing it with NHL! Don't know exactly how you do it, if it's just personal handicapping or whatever, but it works! Thanks again for all you do bud-if it weren't for these and your mostly winning tennis picks, I'd have no bankroll for sure! I've only seen a huge increase since I started tailing your picks!!!
-
08-11-12 11:10 PM #56
0-4
-
08-12-12 08:58 AM #57
Rough night, but that's why these are chases and fades, winning on
the first game has been happenning a lot, but it's not the strategy.
Semper, look back in the thread, I do some explanations of how I make
the first picks. Basically I look for trends to break. I look at opponent
strength and have to consider upcoming opponents, venue and odds.
Summary:
22 chases/fades won on 1st game
9 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd
1 on 4th
1 discontinued after 4th
Success Rate: 97.14%
active
Pirates RL chase (+125) -5dimes reduced
White Sox RL chase (+145) -5dimes reduced
Diamondbacks chase (-118)
Orioles chase (-122)
-
08-12-12 12:19 PM #58
-
08-12-12 06:03 PM #59
-
08-12-12 06:30 PM #60
-
08-13-12 10:50 AM #61
Originally Posted by 7secondsOrLess
-
08-13-12 10:57 AM #62
Pirates RL chase completed (2)
White Sox RL chase completed (2)
Diamondbacks chase completed (2)
Orioles chase completed (2)
Summary:
22 chases/fades won on 1st game
13 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd
1 on 4th
1 discontinued after 4th
Success Rate: 97.14%
active
(1) Astros chase +169
(1) Twins chase +131
(1) Nationals chase +103
-
08-14-12 09:14 AM #63
Twins chase completed (1)
Nationals chase completed (1)
Summary:
24 chases/fades won on 1st game
13 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd
1 on 4th
1 discontinued after 4th
Success Rate: 97.6 %
active
(2) Astros chase +110
(1) Braves RL chase +125
(1) Athletics chase -114
(1) Angels RL chase +105
(1) Rays fade (Mariners +151)
-
08-14-12 02:52 PM #64
So this has a 97% winning rate for the series totals, right? Either way, still looking very nice.
-
08-14-12 04:24 PM #65
only one chase ended with a loss. Originally Posted by Dillonious Monk
it was discontinued after 4. (the Indians lost 11 games in a row, so it's a good thing I ended it).
58.5% won on 1st game, 90.2% by 2nd game, 95.1% by 3rd, 97.6% by 4th.Last edited by Snowball; 08-14-12 at 04:28 PM.
-
08-14-12 05:44 PM #66
Sorry if you get any extra attention in here snow, I was taking up for you over in the tennis forum-some people laughed at the 97% win rate, and I told them they could see for themselves, it's all documented, and that I've personally been following for a while now and even with the lone loss I've seen nothing but profits. Sorry, just pisses me off when I see assholes in these forums attack other people for helping out. I mean if you think it's stupid and don't want to play them, then don't, there's no need to try and bash others to make yourself feel better about yourself!
-
08-14-12 09:22 PM #67
thanks again snowball...headed to vegas this weekend! will be chasing with you..
-
08-15-12 12:11 AM #68
-
08-15-12 08:47 AM #69
Originally Posted by thekidfanky
Have a good time. and thanks to semper, although uninformed opinions are worthless to me. I also get some private messages from people who have been tailing this. My only regret is that I did not start the thread sooner, previously having posted the chases separately.
Now, as the MLB season nears an end, this strategy will become
inapplicable for various reasons.
When we approach around 15 games to postseason it's gonna get too dicey.
At the most, this will last another 4 weeks.
Towards the wrap-up of the season, teams are jostling for the playoffs, while others who are totally out may start experimenting or lose the winning drive.
Although there is capping involved in setting the chases, it is not standard capping. Standard capping is single-game only, this has a forward element.
This is not spot betting. It takes discipline to follow a program. We are always tempted to go large on big games or spot leans, yet that is why virtually all gamblers are long term losers or only tread water.
This means we want to avoid the playoffs.
This means we take a break and wait for NHL where i will post an identical thread.
This means we don't get all riled up for NFL or NBA, where points are the focus
and there is much less parity, as teams may go on long, unpredicatable losing or
winning streaks, even ATS streaks. Streaks are the system's enemy. This is a
system about gravity. Return to the mean. Push and Pull.
NHL season starts September 23.
I am here to consistently make income.
Segregate your "play" money from your "work" money.
Never mix them. Off soap box.
Braves RL chase completed (1)
Angels RL chase completed (1)
Rays fade completed (1)
Astros chase completed (2)
Summary:
27 chases/fades won on 1st game
14 on 2nd game
2 on 3rd
1 on 4th
1 discontinued after 4th
Success Rate: 97.77 %
active
(2) Athletics chase -121
(1) Tigers RL chase +105
(1) Dodgers fade (Pirates +126)
(1) White Sox chase -110
-
08-15-12 02:31 PM #70
Reply With Quote
