[Ernie_Money]

Forgot to post this 30 minutes ago, so I will do so now for tracking purposes.
-------------------------------------------------
30 runs in Colorado put the Salami over by 7 runs yesterday which ticks me off, as even a 22-run game would have given me a win, and of course, Penny goes out early with a back injury and the Phillies game being played at 11:30 p.m. EST is a joke and Major League Baseball should be ashamed of itself for making them play such a huge game at that hour. If the Phillies weren't going for the wild-card spot, that game would have been a rainout. My bet

Grand Salami Under 142, laying $273 to win $250

Reasoning:

7 straight Overs for the Salami, which is getting near rarified air as I believe the longest streak either way for the Salami all season (I believe, but didn't verify) is 8. Pitching matchups look very favorable so I will play the odds.

Week 5: 2-2, -$58
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913

[Ganchrow]

Ernie has been picking a lot of grand salamis lately, and people have been wondering about them in general, and whether they are essentially random plays or not.

The key to betting grand salamis is analysis of the likelihood of "runaway overs", or overs that cover by a large amount. One big runaway over or two regular runaway overs usually sends the salami over, while a day with no runaway overs usually will go under.

The reason for this is pretty simple, as we have seen in the past few days. The 19-11 Colorado game went over by 20, and of course it is impossible for a game to compensate the other way, by going under by 20. There are far more games that go over by 7 or 8, for example, than there are that go under by 7 or 8. And I am pretty sure there are significantly more that go over by 5 than go under by 5. I will look back over the year and post the actual numbers later on.

The point is that handicapping the likelihood of runaway overs is the key to grand salami betting, and there can be legitimate value there. Less important are the number of individual games you think will go over or under. Of course, you might want to hold off on an actual bet unless you see a higher or lower than normal likelihood of runaway overs, AND ALSO a corresponding number of games you think will go the way you want to bet the salami.

The recent string of salami overs is not a surprise. As people have noted (and as I started a thread about a little while ago) the conditions at Coors Field have recently changed, and for all of September, EVERY GAME at Coors has had a much higher than normal likelihood of being a runaway over, and many have in fact been. The fact that a string of salami overs has coincided with a Colorado home stand is not a coincidence.

[Bulldog]

Thanks for the write up Ganch...
I see your point about the Grand Salami...
Still gonna stay away from them...