[UMD-Scientist]

Statistically analyzing two of the best teams in baseball (New York Yankees + Texas Rangers) you will find that the NYY are in one run games (24.7 %) of the time while Texas is (23.25 %). This means that betting both sides of the Run Line every single night, you will hit around 75% of the time with these two high scoring offenses. Now obviously when a 1 run game happens you will lose both bets, but analyzing the first half of the season neither NYY or TEXAS lost in 1 run games more than 2 times in a row. By placing 100 dollar bets on both sides of the run line I finished the first half of the season up close to 2,000 dollars.

So lets track the second half of the season and see what happens. I have already withdrew the 1,800+ dollars so from here on out this is basically an experiment to see if this is long term profitable.

Tonights plaż

NYY -1.5 at +155 (Bet 100.00 to win 155.00)
LAA -1.5 at +170 (Bet 100.00 to win 170.00)

TEX -1.5 at +115 (Bet 100.00 to win 115.00)
SEA -1.5 at +245 (Bet 100.00 to win 245.00)

Often times when the line is highly favorable to a team such as TEXAS tonight I would drop the fourth bet (SEA -1.5) because of how unlikely it is that SEA wins tonight by more than 1. I ran the numbers both ways and it turns out it would have been more profitable to just leave all four bets in place because of the profit margin when SEA does pull off the upset. I could have raked in 3,488.00 had I let the math do the work the entire first half of this season.

Thoughts?

[CHR1S]

Going to keep an eye out for this. Nice work

[jbart28]

How many times did the yankees and rangers lose by more than 1.5 runs in the first half?

What happens if you bet: yankees RL -1.5 and opponent +1.5, Texas -1.5 RL and opponent +1.5?

Given the fact that both teams have at least 2 top tier starters on the DL to start the second half, I will be looking at opposition TT's and totals in general when misfits like freddie garcia and scott feldman take the hill more and more

BOL

[sergiudec]

It's straight on; Q is how did you choose as your teams Yankees & Rangers ? 2011,'10 ... stats similar to these ? Did you simulate it to see by which under -1.5 winning margin it's still profitable ? They went =~ 25% but how bad can it get ? Flat bets, no chase ? BOL for the second half and thx for sharing your thoughts !

[DoctorPhil]

Brahmabull, is that you?

[hydrosmak]

Brahmabull, is that you?

Um what? This isn't even close to the stuff Brahma pulls.

[newbottles]

Very interesting, thanks for sharing.

[sergiudec]

Um what? This isn't even close to the stuff Brahma pulls.

[UMD-Scientist]

Why would anyone bet Tex -1.5 and opponent +1.5, that's not even theoretically profitable ever based on the lines and my understanding. Anyone who follows baseball the slightest bit will tell you NY and TX are two of the best offenses in baseball, this means they have the highest probability to win games by more than one run. What makes this profitable is that even when those offenses fail to produce, there's a good chance the other team wins by more than one run which is why you win about 76% of the time. Because I started with 2,000 and NYY and TX never had more than two games in a row decided by one run, I was never in a position of needing to chase. I simply bet the same way every night and sometimes both teams go on streaks of 7-9 games of winning and losing by more than a run which meant 50-70 dollars profits on both teams 6 times in a row. I wouldve finished close to 2800 had Texas not finished the way they did being in all those tight games. I'm not claiming this is guaranteed, just posting the facts on how it's went thus far.

[hundredbombs]

Add COL over at home to this list. It also hits a majority of the time.

[onlooker]

At what point of the first half did you start this? Start of season, Mid-April, Beginning of May, etc.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i don't like it.

[JMon]

2012 1st half.............

NYY

52-33 (one run wins-12) (multiple run wins-40)

TEX

52-34 (one run wins-11 (multiple run wins-41)

----------------------------------------------

Tor

43-43 (one run wins- 5) (multiple run wins-38)

LAA

48-38 (one run wins- 7) (multiple run wins-41)*****


ARI

42-43 (one run wins- 8) (multiple run wins-34)

BOS

43-43 (one run wins-9) (multiple run wins-34)

STL

46-40 (one run wins-10) (multiple run wins- 36)

What's your record and average juice? So we can tabulate a break even? Without spending time on 2nd half "of any sort historical regression", I can tell you NYY, TX and ARI were the only teams of the list "above" to finish the 2011 season hitting 70%+ of their wins by multiple runs. NYY were the only team in 2010.

[onlooker]

Brutal start to the 2nd half, especially that Rangers game.

Did you stop tracking after that? I would be interested to see the process of this over the 2nd half.

[broadway6]

2012 1st half.............

NYY

52-33 (one run wins-12) (multiple run wins-40)

TEX

52-34 (one run wins-11 (multiple run wins-41)

----------------------------------------------

Tor

43-43 (one run wins- 5) (multiple run wins-38)

LAA

48-38 (one run wins- 7) (multiple run wins-41)*****


ARI

42-43 (one run wins- 8) (multiple run wins-34)

BOS

43-43 (one run wins-9) (multiple run wins-34)

STL

46-40 (one run wins-10) (multiple run wins- 36)

What's your record and average juice? So we can tabulate a break even? Without spending time on 2nd half "of any sort historical regression", I can tell you NYY, TX and ARI were the only teams of the list "above" to finish the 2011 season hitting 70%+ of their wins by multiple runs. NYY were the only team in 2010.

If Yankees won 40 games by multiple runs, won 12 by 1 run and lost 33 game, your betting record would be 40-45. How is that profitable? Texas would be 41-45. Or am I looking at this wrong?

[PMcG012]

If Yankees won 40 games by multiple runs, won 12 by 1 run and lost 33 game, your betting record would be 40-45. How is that profitable? Texas would be 41-45. Or am I looking at this wrong?

Of the 33 games that the Yankees lost, many of those would be lost by more than one run. Since he is betting both sides of the RL he still wins. Unless I'm totally misunderstanding this..

[broadway6]

Of the 33 games that the Yankees lost, many of those would be lost by more than one run. Since he is betting both sides of the RL he still wins. Unless I'm totally misunderstanding this..

i forgot that part.... i knew i was missing something.

[rkelly110]

I've been having good success with a similar odds play. Not specific teams.

Look for odds +135 and above -1.5 RL and ML in the same game. Tonights play is Pit @ +135 ML and Mil -1.5 RL +135.
(that's what the odds were this morning @ 11 am est) Wins might be small, but a win is a win.

[broadway6]

So yankees won 12 games by 1. How many games did they lose by 1? I'm to lazy to go through every game, but not sure how this is extremely profitable when you don't even win a unit if you win your bet, but can lose 2 units when the game is won by 1 run.. (bet 1u on Yankees -1.5 bet 1u on Laa -1.5, you wont win a full unit in profit)

[underal]

you could also try the mirror image of this. find teams that play a lot of 1 run games (nats and giants?) and take both sides +1.5. if it is a 1 run game you win both. if not you lose the vig on the losing side. maybe someone could check the stats on this.

[TheLock]

UMD, you're an ape. Salut.

[Frank-King]

Looks very interesting

[takzilla]

By the odds posted +$200 yesterday, good stuff sir. I"ll be watching this.

[lam824]

Historically in mlb 3 out of 10 games are by 1 run....so basically 7 games will go 1.5+ runs differential between winning team and lossing team....putting that into money, you are winning money every day, not a good/big money, but steady income every day

[mitch51]

Thanks for your info on these run line bets. I wouldn't have taken Seattle on the reverse run line in a million years if I hadn't read that. I am tailing now...it makes a lot more sense than most stuff regarding baseball. It was great to cash on both those games yesterday. Same bets for today.

[PMcG012]

Tried this today by putting 2 units each on Athletics RL +165 and Twins RL +170. Worked great today, giving a profit of +1.3 units. I'm definitely going to do this more often; the only problem is that one loss can undo your last 2 or 3 wins. Still, I'm going to do some research and try to find the teams with the least amount of one run games, either win or lose. Thanks UMD.

[gordan21]

How can you play both teams - one team is the favorite+??

[Vinnie Paz]

You play the dog on the reverse run line gord

[killawookie]

Been doing this for this whole year so far but not on specific teams. I used this with starting bankrolls of 50-100 bucks.. ended several times with multiple payouts of 500-1500. Currently have 1k in 2 books because of it. This method is just like betting the dozens in Roulette. Low risk but low reward. I don't need big hits or quick payouts, but when i can go 15-0 on my plays exactly like this guy's .. makes you feel one step ahead of everyone.

Here's a suggestion for you OP. Take todays LAA/NYY game for example, Want to take a chance at making more money using this safe method we have been using? Simple:

You have THREE methods:

Flat Betting(Your method):
Los Angeles Angels -1½ +150 - 100 to win 150 - Profit = 50
New York Yankees -1½ +188 - 100 to win 188 - Profit = 88
Total wagered - 200
You are 'hoping' Yanks give you the win for the better profit..

Safe Betting:
Los Angeles Angels -1½ +150 - 107.06 to win 160.60 - Profit = 67.66
New York Yankees -1½ +188 - 92.94 to win 174.72 - Profit = 67.66
Total wagered - 200
Take both teams a dutch you total wager amount to win equally across the two.. meaning you win the same no matter who wins. http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-t...alculator.html

Most profitable:
Los Angeles Angels -1½ +150 - 131.50 to win 197.25 - Profit = 128.75
New York Yankees -1½ +188 - 69.5 to win 130.66 - Profit = 0 or .16
Total wagered - 200

Just food for thought!!

[Vinnie Paz]

Thanks a lot for that calc wookie

Musta took you forever though with $100 start off

[nrok2118]

I like this angle, and looking at the series coming up monday I would think all three of these would be prime canidates:

Pirates at Rockies

Jays at Yankees

Angels at Tigers

and maybe the battle of the Sox

Whatcha think

[nrok2118]

Is there any correlation with totals? I would imagine high totals would tend to be higher scoring games and better chance for multiple run wins

[PMcG012]

Great post Mr. Wookie. I'm going to try the dutching method tomorrow on a few games and see what happens. Have you been picking and choose specific games or are you betting on the whole field? Yesterday 10 out of 15 games were won by more than one run, but those 5 one run games are 10 lost units if betting a unit per team. Would this still be profitable?

[Vinnie Paz]

Dutching method seems ok but very minimal profit

[jolmscheid]

This has been brought up before...if it were this easy, why wouldnt everyone be doing it??