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Is MLB one of the most unpredictable games?
You can have a team batting 0 runs to a pitcher and next time 20 runs to the same pitcher. Yes, you can multiply by 20 the previos result. You can not see that in a basketball team scoring 20 times the previous score, not a NHL or a soccer team. Even in football, top teams tend to have a consistency. But baseball is just crazy. I have seen pro teams losing to amateur. You can never be too confident in MLB. Am I right?
For me the absolute worst game to wager on...
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thanks balco, I just had a losing streak of 8 games with heavy fav(contest here, not betting money), taking a pitcher with a far superior ERA and the team with better offense, then I started to bet blindly on the dog and did better. But looking at data for 20 years bettin the dog is not a good bet either. But is not like basketball, for ej when the three best players of miami heat were playing at home they would "never" lose. You could see New orleans winning most games at home too. There is some consistency, there is consistency with jose aldo, jon jones and silva. In MLB you simply can not bet a large amount, nothing is for sure.Originally Posted by Balco10
there's little skill involved in capping mlb. there's no way to predict whether a stud hitter will go 1-5 in a game or 4-5, it all depends on the way the ball falls.
Should rename this thread to the clueless losers brainstorming their thoughts. Goat just because you and the other 200k people on this forum don't know how to win betting mlb doesn't mean it's not beatable. What sport do you beat? Surely not nba from your track record either. Go study more film see where it gets ya.
Here's examples of how easy it is win at MLB betting:
A guy the other day posted that he's taken the Angels for all of Weaver's games this year and he's made a ton of money off it.
Here's no brainer system that's produced a profit for several years:
http://www.sportswinnings.com/sports...doubleheaders/
If you just took the Dodgers team total under for the last couple weeks and did nothing else you'd be up big. It didn't take any special knowledge to see they were in a slump (and they didn't have the talent to do much better), I posted about it right in the beginning: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...under-3-a.html
If you would have stuck with it you would have a nice profit.
There's three examples of absolute NO BRAINER ways to make money off MLB betting and there are more. That's scratching the surface if you have a brain you can make a killing.
Last edited by cleaveland; 07-10-12 at 04:06 AM.
yet there is so much skill in saying heat will win every yeari mean there must be the way you go around so proud of yourself for going 1 for 2 in last 2 finals..
yet there is so much skill in saying heat will win every year
Betting the heat future and going 1 for 2 if you bet the same ammount on each heat future you'd come out ahead. A rare occasion where goat won. You bashing him for that makes you look more unintelligent than goat (um.
honestly on a gm to gm basis know one has a clue, it baseball, they play a ungodly amount of gms that mean very little in the grand scheme of things...thing is trying to predict the winner of any particular matchup is going about things all wrong, all you can do is make plays that offer long term profitability, hope bad breaks dont outweigh the good, and get best price you can....really not sure this isnt true about every sport tho, gm by gm sports in general are unpredictable (yes it was pretty easy to see heat would win final but gm to gm okc conceivably could have took a number of them)
coming from a clown like you i have no problem having my intelligence questioned
I can "eyeball" other sports much better than baseball, and have an edge with direct observations of the games/players. Baseball affords soo many statistics, the edge comes mostly from crunching the statistics with computer programs, and squeezing out small perceived edges, every penny shift in the ml is significant.
Too many variables in baseball
Unlike any other sport
A home run at Citizens Bank Ballpark is a lazy fly ball at PETCO Park
A home run at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is an infield popup at Safeco Field
A pitcher will walk 5 guys with one umpire but walk 0 guys with another umpire
The infield grass at one ballpark can turn a hard grounder into a slow roller that gets scooped up by the infielders and doesnt make it through the hole
While the infield grass at another ballpark can turn a soft grounder into a faster roller that gives the infielder enough time to throw out the runner
Too many variables involved
The key is to find which variables should matter most in a given matchup
Most of the people who bet baseball don't even look at hitter vs pitcher splits. And they wonder why they struggle.
Ever notice how people who know the sport/players/teams well (aka fans) are not winning gamblers? There is a reason to that. Figure it the fuk out dummies.
I wouldn't ever call a chase system a "no brainer".
There is no easy sport to win at.
Regardless of the sport, regardless of the season, this type of question always comes up and some will chime in with a 'yes-it's-impossible-to-win-at [fill in the fukking blank]' reply.
IMO, a capper has to love capping for the intellectual challenge, possess the discipline to manage his br, and have the maturity to withstand the variance.
Call me a cynic - but every time someone asks if a particular sport is the most difficult to wager on, I suspect the flip-side of that question is: 'What is the easiest sport to wager on.'
They are all difficult in their own ways.
Just you wait. When the nfl starts, you'll get these people who rejoice with the mantra "nfl is the easiest sport to bet on." About half way through the season, many of these same people will be posting threads about how the nfl is impossible to win at. Same with college and pro hoops. Same with the nhl.
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In the end the smart people will get all the money while the dumb dribble away.
More underdogs and more UNDERs with + money, and baseball can be quite profitable.
if u think baseball is unpredictable u will never win gambling
formula for guaranteed success : fade the public
I just pick based off the color I like.. seems better then wasting time capping and still losing
exactly....you guys are talking about how unpredictable it is...then it is a perfect sport to bet on dogs.
same with hockey
most of people in the know as they say are not winning gamblers why./they are not gamblers period /
Take all your stats and shove them up your ass in mlb if you want to win fade the public fade the biggest losers you can find its a great game
NHL/MLB are both the same, there's a reason why you don't see any -500 ml's in any of the games.
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great post. drilled it on the head.
I am not saying this to be a dick to the OP but its widely known that MLB is the best sport to make money on. With all the advanced stats out these days and sabers its very easy to get a read on a starting pitcher who is about to implode or is true to his form as his numbers would suggest. not to be cliche but it all comes down to pitching. I suggest reading fangraphs. xera-baseball. get to know xFIP, FIP, xERA, strand rates, line drive rates, ground ball ratios ect.
college sports are the best probably for most people, but MLB is the sport where I make the majority of my profits so.
^^^THIS!!
I found/joined this forum during hockey season were I was playing with some left over football money I didnt manage to lose during the season. I found Hockey to be profitable, I took a lot of dogs, reverse line movments against the public, and some system plays too. I was killing it! Now there were some bad patches in the playoffs, mainly because of the Kings unexpected incredible run. But on the forum I remember everyone saying "hockey is impossible to bet, I cant wait till baseball starts", "baseball is much easier than hockey". Now that baseballs here all I hear is "baseballs impossible to bet, I cant wait till football starts". And I cant wait till the Packers have a letdown season, and the Bucs go on a run, and everyones gonna say "footballs too unpredictable,I cant wait for hockey season". If gambling was easy, everyone would do it, and be rich! But thats never gonna happen. Accept that 98% of gamblers do it recreationally, or destroy their lives trying to win.
Ive been talking to my one buddy a lot lately about betting baseball, as we're both losing a lot lately. Now hes a SQUARE. Plays lots of juice, blinded by the idea that "theres no way "such and such" could lose to "so and so". Than when he loses hes keeps saying, "its like flipping a coin", to which I reply "if its like flipping a coin, than why dont you play the + money instead of constantly paying tons of juice?!". Now he doesnt listen, and personally Im gonna lose it next time he takes a -170 fav and loses, telling me "its a coin flip"...but the fact is the best route long term is simply make the "smart value" play and have bankroll management, and your money will last a lot longer.
You are hanging out with Brahma?
Yeah we get jacked and tan all day son!
Aww poor Brahma..bet he still lurks the boards
hockey lines are so soft it's a joke. mlb lines are much, much sharper
The best teams win like 60 percent of the time... so yea
i stick with NCAAF...NFL too hard to cap
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