[EVPlus]

With the faves cashing nicely tonight, there has been some discussion about playing the dogs tomorrow. I won't tell others how to spend (or burn) their money but I've been capping tomorrow's Brewers/Reds game and I'm not so sure Reds are the best play.

Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 Wednesday games.
Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 Wednesday games.
No Edge

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Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
Edge: Reds

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Greinke is 3-0 career against Reds.
Bailey is 0-4 career against Brewers.
Edge: Brewers

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Brewers are 8-3 in Greinke's last 11 starts during game 3 of a series.
Reds are 1-4 in Baileys last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
Edge: Brewers

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Brewers are 8-3 in Greinke's last 11 starts during game 3 of a series.
Reds are 2-6 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.
Edge: Brewers

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Brewers are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a road favorite.
Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games as a home underdog.
No Edge.

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Brewers are 6-2 in Greinke's last 8 Wednesday starts.
Reds are 5-2 in Baileys last 7 Wednesday starts.
No Edge. Both boys do well throwing on hump days.

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Ump - Eric Cooper Wednesday games
Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 Wednesday games with Cooper behind home plate.
Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games with Cooper behind home plate.
No Edge

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Road team is 5-1 in Coopers last 6 games behind home plate vs. Cincinnati.
Home team is 9-2 in Coopers last 11 games behind home plate vs. Milwaukee.
Home team is 26-7 in Coopers last 33 Wednesday games behind home plate.
Edge: Reds

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Greinke is 3-0 against Reds.
Bailey is 0-4 against Brewers.

It's worth noting, however, that Votto is .364 over Greinke and Stubbs is .455.

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Bailey, who regressed in his last showing, threw something of a my-panties-are-too-tight hissy fit after Baker pulled him out. He's had a few days to rest and get motivated to redeem himself. Also, seeing Latos and Arroyo (until the 8th) pitch gems has to add fuel to his fire.

What scares me, just like in my pick last sunday on Cueto/Reds, is Dusty Baker. I am starting to become convinced that the Reds would have a better record if Baker pulls his starters out BEFORE the sh1t hits the fan. They could have won the second game against the Twins this past weekend. Twins were getting 1 run per inning off Bailey in that game from the 2nd to the 5th. At the end of the 5th, Baker should have pulled him to protect the 1-run lead.

And they almost lost tonight if it wasn't for Stubbs' homer. I know Baker's defense: Arroyo was going into the eight with a no-hit bid. However, IMO, after Arroyo walked Kottaras in the 8th and then gave up a double to the next batter, Green, Baker should have brought in a reliever.

If Bailey, no matter how much he wants to redeem himself, sh1ts the bed again, I fear Baker may be too slow on the uptake to remove his sorry ass before it's too late.

And let's not forget the Brewers would much rather go 1-2 than 0-3. Greinke is also motivated IMO to prove that he can do well on the road.

The line is about Brewers -107 and Reds -103 right now. I currently see this match up as a pass.

Regardless of your play, BOL.

Also, if anyone wants to add info to this or critique it, I look forward to it. I'll do another morning review of this and if it hits enough of my filters, I just may change my mind and make a play.

[Avenger]

I like it!

Depending on the line move, I'll put 1 unit on Brewers. I'm wary of day games, I rarely play them.

[EVPlus]

I like it!

Depending on the line move, I'll put 1 unit on Brewers. I'm wary of day games, I rarely play them.

Thanks for the ponts. Keep in mind the Reds bp is a little fresher because Arroyo went 8 innings. Also, Reds closer Chapman pitched very well, throwing 9ks 7bs including a few 98-101 4 seams.

[No coincidences]

Like it in theory, but Greinke's always an adventure on the road.

[EVPlus]

Like it in theory, but Greinke's always an adventure on the road.

Yes, I agree. Also, Bailey may come out firing on all cylinders in light of the events this past week. With the tantrum he threw when getting pulled, he could be very motivated to prove his mettle. This is why I'm currently passing on this with a slight lean on Reds (which may be clouded by the fact that they were my favorite child hood team).

[EVPlus]

Some more information.


Brewers 10-19 day games.
Reds 19-9 day games.

Edge: Reds

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Brewers against righties 23-30.
Reds against righties 28-23.

Edge: Reds (small)

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Brewers bullpen on road ERA 3.09 and 1.476 WHiP
Reds bp at home ERA 2.77 and 1.015 WHIP

Edge: Reds

It should also be noted that Brewers bp has been used more extensively leading up to this game. I will have the exact numbers when the site I use updates tomorrow morning.

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Current line Brewers -106 and Reds +100 at Pinny; and both teams -105 at the Greek.

[brahmabull117]

Greinke's great but I'm not going to lose another brewers bet the rest of the season because of Axeford and the rest of the retards in that milwaukee bullpen



Chris Sale and Andy Pettite are both better plays

[EVPlus]

^^^There are better plays on the card tomorrow. Actually, my play will be in wnba. I created this thread because lately, I've taken it upon myself to revisit Cinci - my favorite team when I was a kid.

I post this info so anyone who is thinking of playing this card can potentially benefit from my research and interpretation of the trends/stats.

[No coincidences]

Yes, I agree. Also, Bailey may come out firing on all cylinders in light of the events this past week. With the tantrum he threw when getting pulled, he could be very motivated to prove his mettle. This is why I'm currently passing on this with a slight lean on Reds (which may be clouded by the fact that they were my favorite child hood team).

Bailey's a tough read. Plus stuff but a jarhead.

[No coincidences]

Greinke's great but I'm not going to lose another brewers bet the rest of the season because of Axeford and the rest of the retards in that milwaukee bullpen



Chris Sale and Andy Pettite are both better plays

Sale -173 on the road and Pettitte at -185 vs. a plus-.500 team.

Unreal.

[brahmabull117]

Sale -173 on the road

My book had it at -165...and that's not a bad play against a batting practice pitcher and a team that's not hitting much

and Pettitte at -185 vs. a plus-.500 team.

Unreal.

Except yanks don't win games by 1 run too often so that +110 is excellent value

[MagicDiceFlow]

EV, just my two cents on this play. Everything you mentioned above are excellent points towards a Brewer win. Cincy has made me good money this year either backing or fade so I monitor them daily.

Greinke is lights out, no doubt a fantastic pitcher. The only thing that made this a no play for me is the Brewer's offense. They're very similar to the Reds offense which can hit a stale stretch which the both of them are currently in. Homer Bailey is an enigma that no one can read this year. Decent sometimes and other times full blown gas can. If this game stays tied (which very well may happen) heading into the 8th or beyond, Cincy will hold a big edge at home.

Even though Chapman got lit up last several times, him and Marshall are a good one two punch that can hold down the fort for two innings to allow a one run Cincy win.

[EVPlus]

Greinke is 5-4 on the road.
Bailey is 2-5 at home.

Edge: Brewers

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Greinke is 3-3 in day games.
Bailey is 3-2.

No Edge.

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Recovery does not appear to be an issue for Greinke as he is 2-0 after pitching 8 innings. He pitched 9 his last game.
Bailey should be well-rested after pitching a little over 5.

No Edge.

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Greinke has been the subject of trade rumors and I suspect this will motivate him even more so that his stock will rise. He is currently 5-4 on the road and I'm certain he wants to shake the image of a starter that cannot win on the road. Also, today's loss marks the Brewer's fourth straight. They have lost four straight earlier in the season and won the fifth.

At this time, unless there are some heavy duty information that I find between now and game time, I'm going to pass on this with a small lean on "no-run 1st inning." If both pitchers perform well and it goes to the later innings, I suspect the Reds will be able take advantage of a fatigued Brewer's bp.

Hope anyone looking at this card found the info helpful. BOL.

[EVPlus]

EV, just my two cents on this play. Everything you mentioned above are excellent points towards a Brewer win. Cincy has made me good money this year either backing or fade so I monitor them daily.

Greinke is lights out, no doubt a fantastic pitcher. The only thing that made this a no play for me is the Brewer's offense. They're very similar to the Reds offense which can hit a stale stretch which the both of them are currently in. Homer Bailey is an enigma that no one can read this year. Decent sometimes and other times full blown gas can. If this game stays tied (which very well may happen) heading into the 8th or beyond, Cincy will hold a big edge at home.

Even though Chapman got lit up last several times, him and Marshall are a good one two punch that can hold down the fort for two innings to allow a one run Cincy win.

Great advice (and great call tonight on Giants). As you can see from my above post, I see this as a coin-flip and there is no edge in that.

Talk to you tomorrow.

[brahmabull117]

EV, just my two cents on this play. Everything you mentioned above are excellent points towards a Brewer win. Cincy has made me good money this year either backing or fade so I monitor them daily.

Greinke is lights out, no doubt a fantastic pitcher. The only thing that made this a no play for me is the Brewer's offense. They're very similar to the Reds offense which can hit a stale stretch which the both of them are currently in. Homer Bailey is an enigma that no one can read this year. Decent sometimes and other times full blown gas can. If this game stays tied (which very well may happen) heading into the 8th or beyond, Cincy will hold a big edge at home.

Even though Chapman got lit up last several times, him and Marshall are a good one two punch that can hold down the fort for two innings to allow a one run Cincy win.

Aren't you more worried about the disaster bullpen of Milwaukee?

[NYSportsGuy210]

^^^There are better plays on the card tomorrow. Actually, my play will be in wnba. I created this thread because lately, I've taken it upon myself to revisit Cinci - my favorite team when I was a kid.

I post this info so anyone who is thinking of playing this card can potentially benefit from my research and interpretation of the trends/stats.

What's your WNBA play for Wednesday?

[EVPlus]

Dusty, just I thought, is leaving Bailey in there when the Brewers are clearly reading his pitches. For the Reds to have any chance, they need to take him off the mound.