1. 06-24-12 01:28 PM #1
    Jeff Grant
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    Are You Looking to Fade Matt Cain?

    No pitcher in San Francisco-era history has ever won nine-straight starts in a single season

    It's important to note that Matt Cain is 2-1 with a 0.87 ERA in his last four starts against the Athletics

    The Giants are also 1-5 in Cain's last six starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150

    Last edited by Jeff Grant; 06-24-12 at 01:46 PM.
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  2. 06-24-12 01:30 PM #2
    remeedella
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    taking cain
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  3. 06-24-12 01:33 PM #3
    Jeff Grant
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    Quote Originally Posted by remeedella View Post
    taking cain
    Find the betting odds to be inviting to take Cain - we'll find out soon enough
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  4. 06-24-12 01:33 PM #4
    MagicDiceFlow
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    I might fade him but not with the A's offense. They'll be better spots than the A's. Even though they've been hot, they'll come back down to earth and start laying goose eggs again. Plus Giants offense is clicking.....pitching only paints half the picture.
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  5. 06-24-12 01:38 PM #5
    Dclan86
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    Yea the A's have a minor league pitcher making his MLB debut tonight. This unpredictable factor really throws a wrench in there but it most would assume Cain will be able to out perform the new guy. So unless Oakland's offense is able to really rail Cain, I would expect SF to win.
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  6. 06-24-12 01:40 PM #6
    Jeff Grant
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicDiceFlow View Post
    I might fade him but not with the A's offense. They'll be better spots than the A's. Even though they've been hot, they'll come back down to earth and start laying goose eggs again. Plus Giants offense is clicking.....pitching only paints half the picture.
    The Athletics lead the majors in runs (113) and walks (86) in the month of June, while also leading the AL with a .346 on-base percentage over that span

    Oakland SP A.J. Griffin makes his MLB debut Sunday
    -Combined for a 6-3 record and 2.66 ERA in 15 games at Double-A and Triple-A this year
    -Griffin was 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA over his final five starts at Triple-A (34.1 IP, 5 ER, 27 K)
    -Displayed great control in walking one batter or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts
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  7. 06-24-12 01:50 PM #7
    MagicDiceFlow
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    ^^^^^^^^ Triple A stats hold little weight until he proves himself with a few big league starts. There's been hundreds of guys with monster minor league stats and end up getting shelled in the big league.
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  8. 06-24-12 01:52 PM #8
    Darkside Magick
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    Tossup...no bet here
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  9. 06-24-12 01:57 PM #9
    hundredbombs
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    I'm wondering if there's any value in the under...
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  10. 06-24-12 01:59 PM #10
    EVPlus
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    No - but not chomping at the bit to tail him either. Just a small lean at this moment with Giants.

    In his last outing against the Angels - a game in which most thought he would fall victim to the no-no curse - he escaped. But man was it a close shave. My guess is that was enough of a wake up call for him to realize he's not going to automatically win. He still needs to focus on the things that's given him success. Had that game against the Angels gone easily, I can see him or any other human being getting over confident.

    And remember - he was more fatigued when he faced the Angels with the complete game, the celebration, media bullsh1t, etc. He didn't go the full 9 against the Angels, so he should be better rested.

    As far as motivation, he already has the perfect game under his belt. Why not add the title of the 1st pitcher in team history to win 9 straight starts...? I have no doubt he is very motivated indeed.

    Also, someone correct me if I'm wrong (I haven't checked the stats) but it appears the Giants bats come alive when he's on the mound. Alot of teams in mlb have great pitchers who just don't get the run support. Cain+Giants batters appears to be the exception. And think of it from his team mates perspective. Why wouldn't they want to give the best efforts to a pitcher that's made them proud.

    The rivalry between Oakland and SFG cannot be underestimated. I lived in Nor Cal for several years and saw this first hand (also between Raiders and 49er fans). The Giants want this one; then again, so does Oakland - and they did lose a tough one last night. My guess is they went to bed angry and that makes for a dangerous opponent the next day.

    The line movement on this game is suspicious. A little between 1030 to 1050 eastern, Giants dropped from around 133 to 129. Then it made a small correction to 131. I don't know if that drop coincides with McCarthy being pulled from the starting spot for the A's. And like many line movements, this could be a case of "neither here nor there."

    Giants are 4-1 in last 5 as faves. But they are also 0-4 in their last 4 of in game 3 of a series. Can you say 'coin-flip'?

    Giants are 5-0 in Cains last 5 road starts. Giants are 5-0 in Cains last 5 starts as a favorite.
    Giants are 9-0 in Cains last 9 starts.
    Giants are 5-1 in Cains last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Giants are 4-1 in Cains last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
    Giants are 4-1 in Cains last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.


    Like I said earlier, Cain is one the hot pitchers in the league whose teammates actually come to bat for (pun intended). Some guys just have that magical quality to bring out best efforts from others.


    Athletics are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    Athletics are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Athletics are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Athletics are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Athletics are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
    Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
    Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150.
    Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.


    The A's can play winning baseball. And remember the tough loss last night as well as the intense rivalry between the two teams. In some ways, this is a game to determine the king of Nor Cal baseball.


    Now let's look at the Ump - Brian Gorman. It looks good for Giants based on past trends:

    Road team is 8-0 in Gormans last 8 interleague games behind home plate.
    Home team is 5-0 in Gormans last 5 games behind home plate vs. Oakland.
    Road team is 4-1 in Gormans last 5 Sunday games behind home plate.
    Road team is 7-2 in Gormans last 9 games behind home plate.
    Road team is 6-2 in Gormans last 8 games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
    Athletics are 1-6 in their last 7 games with Gorman behind home plate.
    Last edited by EVPlus; 06-24-12 at 02:03 PM.
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  11. 06-24-12 06:02 PM #11
    Jeff Grant
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    Giants bullpen is going through a rough patch right now
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  12. 06-24-12 06:03 PM #12
    sportsguy04
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    Unreal.
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  13. 06-24-12 06:06 PM #13
    crackerjack
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    first five ftw...sf closers stink
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  14. 06-24-12 06:08 PM #14
    starfire
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  15. 06-24-12 06:08 PM #15
    ses_d
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    **** the oakland A's
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  16. 06-24-12 06:09 PM #16
    zr0
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    wow that was fking terrible
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  17. 06-24-12 06:12 PM #17
    a4u2fear
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    Didn't fade even after the no hitter
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  18. 06-24-12 06:13 PM #18
    Dclan86
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    yea **** baseball. I am done betting on this bullshit.
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  19. 06-24-12 06:14 PM #19
    hundredbombs
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    This is the second time this week I've been f'd by the A's on a 3 run walk-off HR. Against two top tier starters too (Kershaw and Cain). Ruined my 10-0 weekend too.
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  20. 06-24-12 06:16 PM #20
    shimeon40
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    Morning jeff,
    any pick in late games?
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  21. 06-24-12 06:29 PM #21
    El Nino
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    I quit. This is ridiculous. Been crushing Euro 2012 and all the latest UFC cards only to get mosquito bit to death by these ridiculous choke jobs. Rookie no name fukk breathing out of his mouth just misses a cookie and Casilla throws him another in the exact same spot. The whole stadium knew another fastball was coming. These closers that only throw heat are dinosaurs. Even Chapman blew another one today.

    I really wish someone would dig through the stats and see how many blown saves and bullpen collapses of 2 or more runs in the 9th inning have occurred this year compared to the last 5. I feel like it's off the charts. I haven't been on the right side of a walk off HR or a 9th inning collapse since the first week of the season when the Tigers came back against the Red Sox. This isn't fun or profitable anymore. Back to spot betting. Is it football season yet?
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  22. 06-24-12 06:43 PM #22
    Darkside Magick
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    First 5...... that what I have been betting...cant trust these closers
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  23. 06-24-12 09:45 PM #23
    EVPlus
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    Even though I didn't have anything on this game, I must say that was fukking brutal for the Giants backers. This is why some games you just stay away from. I know it's small consolation, but if do you a post-mortem on this:

    1) Intense Rivalry

    2) A's lost a tough one last night and they were pissed off

    3) Unknown entity in A's starter who pitched surprisingly well in order to stay in the bigs. This, unlike #1 and #2 was something I did not consider but should have. Also, Cain lived up to my expectations but the closer did not (congrats to those who played SFG 1st 5).

    4) Home plate ump, imo, pretty much stayed with his trend. Then again, there's nothing you can do about a closer sh1tting the bed and giving away the last inning and the game.

    Some match ups you just stay the fukk away from.

    BOL on your next plays.
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