[EVPlus]

Today, I had a lean on the Reds. Unfortunately, thanks to Bailey regressing as well as Baker being a complete idiot for keeping him in after the 5th, the Twins pulled an upset.

I like the Reds RL (currently around +110) Saturday the 23rd for the following reasons. I will also give reasons why this might be fade material.

Pros:

* Revenge factor. Not only has Cincy lost 4 straight now, they lost to the Twins. In their own backyard. They have to go to bed tonight stewing over that. A few days ago, the Pirates had to do the same after a game 2 loss. And look what the Pirates did to the Twins the next day.

*Bullpen. Twins bp has now gone 3 straight days without a rest. Tomorrow will be the 4th day unless Duensing can go all 9. This appears very unlikely, as the last I read had him scheduled to a 60-pitch limit.

The Reds' bp, which saw more action tonight than it should have (thanks very much, Homer), should be a little fresher. The fact that Cueto has gone at least 7 innings ten times this season is also promising.

Also, it doesn't appear the Twins closer will be returning tomorrow. Keep in mind this has NOT been confirmed.

*Starting pitcher. Cueto has won his last three. His most recent game was impressive with 1 run and six hits in 7 innings. He's actually a half decent batter as well.

Duensing, as previously mentioned, is big question mark, filling a void left by several injured starters in the Twins' line up.

*Trends. The Reds, this season, are 4-0 when favored by -175 to -200. They are 1-0 when favored by -200 to -205. They are a decent 11-8 against lefties. The Twins are 19-31 against right handers. In June, the Reds won 8 games by 2 or more runs. They won 2 games by only 1 run.



Cons:

*A fundamental rule I believe in is to bet with your head and not with your heart. The Reds were my favorite team when I was kid. This was many years ago. However, I can't help but wonder if this is clouding my judgement.

*Cueto, just like Homer, can regress a little. Both pitchers had very impressive showings in their last game. I don't feel that Homer sucked today as much as he simply regressed and Baker fukked it up by keeping him in even after seeing that he was giving up 1 run per inning from the 2nd to the 5th.

*As pissed off as the Reds are after tonight's loss, whose to say that the Twins are not equally motivated to keep the party going? I'm sure they're sick and tired of people calling them losers. They have just as much motivation to give the doubters the big middle finger.

*The Reds hitters had some prime opportunities to close the deal tonight and they blew it. Being pissed off is one thing; if you can't channel that fury into your hitting, you're worthless. Also, they're 11-8 against lefties and I don't have any stats on the Reds vs Duensing. There is the chance that Duensing can seize the moment and pitch well, giving his team just enough of a window to build momentum.


That's all I can think of tonight. I'm going to sleep on it and do some more research all the way up to game time.

Feel free to post any comments. I'm not here to win an internet debate; rather, I'm here to win money.

[jscene]

I'm on it... Reds -1.5 +110 4 units. Where I bet it's down to 100 now. I've been taking Reds with Cueto most of the time, most of the season, sometimes RL because of juice and have won some money (about 7 games) although lost once with RL when Reds won by 1 run and lost a couple times when Reds lost flat out. Cueto is more consistent than Bailey. Yeah, Reds hit lefties good...Twins not so good with righties.

[a4u2fear]

-101. Good luck

[Gndias]

i had them last night guess i'll have to triple it today..

[Gnutti]

I think they'll win big tonight

[EVPlus]

In yesterday's loss, the starting home plate ump, Layne, was hit on the head by a cracked bat. He had to be replaced by the second base ump, Davidson. To quote Red's beat writer John Fay "It was a very scary scene." Twins catcher Doumit was quoted, "It was awfully loud. That's scary."

Maybe it's a coincidence or my imagination but Davidson sure the hell was generous with the strike zone - especially when the Twins were pitching and Reds were batting.

Call me paranoid but I suspect that Davidson: 1) wanted to get the game over due to an irrational fear of the same thing happening to him; or 2) wanted to punish the Reds (again irrational because no one can predict such things); or 3) a combination of the 1 and 2.

Dan Bellino is scheduled to be the home plate ump today and he trends towards the Reds. From across the street, some stats for Bellino:

Home team is 4-0 in Bellinos last 4 games behind home plate vs. Minnesota.
Home team is 7-1 in Bellinos last 8 Saturday games behind home plate.
Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 games with Bellino behind home plate.


However - road team is 8-2 in Bellinos last 10 interleague games behind home plate.

And yesterday's accident involving Layne could very well be in the back of Bellino's mind. Human beings are irrational creatures and Bellino may behave just as Davidson did by giving the Twins' pitchers a more generous strike zone. When something terrible happens to you or someone on your "team" it's natural to want to place blame - no matter how illogical - on someone.

Also Twins are 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two teams. Sure, on paper, the Reds are the better team with the more proven starting pitcher. But the Twins just seem to get it done against them.

Twins are 6-1 as +151 to +200 dogs in their last 7 games.
Twins are 5-1 as +151 to +200 dogs in their last 6 road games.

Being such huge dogs brings out the best in them, or Vegas over values their opponents, or a combination of the two.

And let's not forget we're giving up 2 runs from the get go. I hope people on this play aren't going big, pounding, etc.

As far as line movements go, I haven't found anything that hints at smart money going with the Twins. But line movements are just one piece.

Dusty Baker, who I greatly admired when he played for the Dodgers, is proving himself to be a one stupid mother fukker. When Bailey was giving up 1 run per inning from the 2nd to the 5th yesterday, he should have pulled him after the 5th to protect the 1-run lead. The Twins were reading his pitches and the pitch count was growing. It was obvious Bailey just didn't have it yesterday.

Also, Baker used Bill Bray with the bases loaded. It was Bray's first appearance since coming off the DL. Also, Bray, a lefty, faced Span and Revere both left-handed hitters. Like I said, Dusty is one dumb mother fukker. Will he wake the fukk up today?

Before Saturday's game, the Reds are going to induct three players into their Hall of Fame. If this, along with a season high 4th straight loss, doesn't make the current Red's line up feel ashamed and want to make amends, I don't know what will.

In my first post, I said I'm going to sleep on this and do some more research. I've come to the conclusion that I don't like the Reds RL in this spot as much as I did last night. The most I'm going in on this is 1 unit. BOL

[cookie jar]

Nice write up Ev. Like you, i also think this might be on the "trap side"! Yesterday i was all over cincy, but didnt play them do to lack of confidence, which as u can see turned out being a rather wise decision. Although i do think they have a greater chance of winning with cueto on the mound. The big question here is will they have enough bats going to cover the runline, as there isnt much value with laying the heavy juice

[EVPlus]

The Big Red Machine takes a bite out of the Twinkies.

Congrats to those who played the Reds today. I'm kicking myself for going in only a unit but it's still a win. And I certainly hope my comment in a prior post didn't scare anyone off a winning bet. I merely wanted to present all possible angles so those who read my opinions can make an informed decision with their money.

In addition to the win, I now know to adjust one of my filters which would've prevented me from making this play. Good thing I ignored it.

I think the win was a culmination of the tough loss yesterday, the 4 straight losses, the Reds Hall of Fame ceremony that took place before the game (inspire the current Reds lineup), and Cueto pitching a gem. Baker, I'm still not sure about; after all, he didn't really have to do much with Cueto playing so well.