1. #1
    cocknocker
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    CK's Daily MLB Thread Leans for Friday May 1. 2009

    As many of you know, I am going on vacation leaving early Tuesday morning. I won't have a personal thread of my own until August (football season) that is sports related. I will have a running column in the politics and economics section that I will work on every other day once I get back. I will not be answering ANY sports related questions on that thread.

    Instead, I will drop in on everyone else's threads every now and then if I have a Crumbs play that I like and am willing to share.

    I will be on autopilot from now on, playing my system and the JM system with JohnMorr08's filters on the plays.

    This is my off-season. And I will be spending a lot of time on the road and also being the Missus' gopher when the pregnancy kicks in full blast.


    Anyway enough about me...


    Orioles+1.5 +105
    Twins-1.5 +115 HEAVY
    Giants/Rockies under 8.5 -115
    Astros/Braves under 8 -105
    Padres+120 Peavy at this price? Crumbs Play-O-The-Day


    Ponson is an autofade until he gets the boot out of the league. He's too proud to accept reassignment so he will be looking for a job in a city near you soon.

    Randy Johnson always goes under when he faces the Rockies. Why should I be the one to stop a streak like that? I think it's 8-1-1 overall for the under

    Derek Lowe also goes under when he faces the Asteroids, no matter what team he pitches on. Hampton is pitching a l'il better this year, and I am hoping that the revenge angle will amp him up to face his old mates.

    Peavy has a stellar record against the Dodgers. I have to play it again despite the set back the last time he faced them.

    Halladay is good, but the crumbs are better. Plus the O's can knock the stuffing out of the ball. Just what you need when fading the Complete Game King. What I would like to see here is a slug-out with the team coming up last winning by only one run. Only because it's Halladay am I not taking the Orioles on the reverse runline. There are some serious free chicken dinner numbers on the consensus for this game. 75% for Toronto already. Hendrikson has already lost 3 straight to Halladay personally, but he's only given up 5 earned over 12 and a third innings, which isn't too bad. The fourth time will be a charm. Give me the live dog with the warm bats.
    Last edited by cocknocker; 05-01-09 at 01:25 AM.

  2. #2
    shoebox
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    FRIDAY

    Arizona +120 5 units
    Arizona +1.5 -170 5 units
    Blue Jays Run Line -120 5 units



    dont be scared of that AZ/jays picks ck .......

  3. #3
    laxdjock
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    NYM +103 ML, Riding Big Pelf.

  4. #4
    cnleaf
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    Have fun on your long vacation.

  5. #5
    cocknocker
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    Quote Originally Posted by shoebox View Post
    FRIDAY

    Arizona +120 5 units
    Arizona +1.5 -170 5 units
    Blue Jays Run Line -120 5 units



    dont be scared of that AZ/jays picks ck .......
    I just can't pay negative anything when I have a -1.5 line. It won't work. I have to go the other way on that one and take the plus money with the Orange Birds.

    I am a little concerned about the other two however. You are cutting into your profits with a +1.5 play on a team that you already have plus money wager on. It makes more sense to take them on the reverse runline and not cut into your profits if both cash. If you win both of those Arizona wagers, you are gonna have a negative effect on your money.


    Why not just play the D-Backs+120 and forget about all of the other shit? Just cut to the chase, babe. If you lose both you could be out of 14.5 units instead of just being out of 5 if you just lose the straight up wager. Just up the amount of your wager on that +120 and get rid of the negative (-170) money. The idea is to collect crumbs when you're right, not give them back when you're right.

    The Arizona reverse runline is probably a big payday. Don't let me play it for you and show you what I mean. You'd better drop that +1.5 and turn it into a -1.5 and get yo chedda baybee.





  6. #6
    sweetjones55
    554-381 (59.2%) NBA/WNBA/Football Record
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    Marlins are +245 Moneyline tommrow. What do you guys think?

  7. #7
    monkey107
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    CK, any parlays again?

  8. #8
    laxdjock
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweetjones55 View Post
    Marlins are +245 Moneyline tommrow. What do you guys think?
    Harden + worn out Fish BP......a problem.

    I'm going to look at other games before that. It looks appealing, but it pretty much means Taylor will need to go at least 7, AND the Fish's BP need a hold.

  9. #9
    shoebox
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    Quote Originally Posted by shoebox View Post
    FRIDAY

    Arizona +120 2 units
    Arizona +1.5 -170 5 units
    Blue Jays Run Line -120 3 units
    AZ RRL 1 UNIT


    dont be scared of that AZ/jays picks ck .......
    my bad forgot to quote my actual untis played, opposed to challenge picks.......Ill be playing the RRL dont worry about that, get paid on AZ its the play of the DAY!!

    DOC -120 enough said, lay it MR CRUMB

  10. #10
    cocknocker
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    Ok shoe..

    Now you're good to go. I will sprinkle some dollars on the Arizona RRL too when it pops up tomorrow. I see what you mean. Parra is not worthy of that price tag. He is barely a -113 pitcher at best. The -140 line should be reserved for much better pitchers. i find it peculiar that there's a reverse runline for all of the games for tomorrow except for this particular game. There is only 34% on the Snakes. I like this thing of yours. Good find

  11. #11
    sweetjones55
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    Quote Originally Posted by laxdjock View Post
    Harden + worn out Fish BP......a problem.

    I'm going to look at other games before that. It looks appealing, but it pretty much means Taylor will need to go at least 7, AND the Fish's BP need a hold.
    The Marlins already beat Johan Santana twice, you just never know with this team. I don't think the Marlins will win but I think it worth a shot at +245. Marlins are one of four NL teams to have a winning record playing in Wrigley.

  12. #12
    BmoreBucco
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    Gallaragga real good. Pavano real bad. Tigers at home and gonna unload on the Indians.

    Detroit -1.5 +115

  13. #13
    cocknocker
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    I'm surprised you're not taking the Tigers team total to go over, BmoreBucco....

  14. #14
    BmoreBucco
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    You know, I think I'll do that. Good lookin' out...

  15. #15
    cocknocker
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    It's all good! Pavano is hella weak. All that good money for nothing

  16. #16
    FrozenMAN
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweetjones55 View Post
    The Marlins already beat Johan Santana twice, you just never know with this team. I don't think the Marlins will win but I think it worth a shot at +245. Marlins are one of four NL teams to have a winning record playing in Wrigley.
    we play super well at the friendly confines and vs the cubs in general and i've been in attendence to plenty of games where we have no purpose in winning but we have, but tomorrow i just dont know. taylor was HORRIFIC in his debut last week and had no control which cant be present tomorrow cause the cubs bats are hurting right now but the few hits the do get could spell trouble if there are ducks on the pond. like everyone's said, our pen has been used extensivly and needs a good outting from taylor but i just dont know if they will get that tommorrow.

    good news is that hanley SHOULD be back tommorrow given he was 85% today, but i still havent decided on this game, possibly leaning to an o/u under

  17. #17
    Rizzla
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    Thanx for the tips so far CK, hope you will b back very soon!!!

  18. #18
    2daBank
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    gotta rock da fish 2day! f##k harden and w da way the scrubbies are playing ill take that good plus money. looking at the tribe as well and since i didnt get my crumbs against da yanks ill take them 2day i mean hell they have won 2 in a row that cant keep up! gl 2 every1 2day

  19. #19
    peterpan19
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    today I like (not final)
    DET -1 (better pitcher...Pavano still sucks)
    Pit -1 (...the dukle is back....plus cin always struggles at PNC park)
    ATL -1 (..lowe will have a nice game again...)
    Bos (...they will rebound)
    Dbacks...they will get it done today

    GL

  20. #20
    joanapoker
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    So today it will start the First inning runs system (aka CK MLB system) or just in the end of the first week of May?

    Thx

    ....just one more thing

    CK

    If you are leaving on vacation and just dropping now and then here in the Forum, how will we now the games that should be chased? (I'm saying this because as an european, I get ESPN america on my cable and I know it's diferent from the US ESPN, so maybe the live games are also diferent....giving false chase games to europeans).

    Thx for the help
    Last edited by joanapoker; 05-01-09 at 07:17 AM.

  21. #21
    TMajic
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    CK, have fun on your trip!!! Make a trip to downtown and eat at a place called Pericos!!! You will love it.

  22. #22
    cocknocker
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    Quote Originally Posted by joanapoker View Post
    So today it will start the First inning runs system (aka CK MLB system) or just in the end of the first week of May?

    Thx

    ....just one more thing

    CK

    If you are leaving on vacation and just dropping now and then here in the Forum, how will we now the games that should be chased? (I'm saying this because as an european, I get ESPN america on my cable and I know it's diferent from the US ESPN, so maybe the live games are also diferent....giving false chase games to europeans).

    Thx for the help

    Good question, I am starting my thing today. I will not play any of them that are over -120 for one to score with the vigorish. Meaning that if the line is over -120, then I am playing it flat and just taking my crumbs from the win instead of getting crazy with it. I did not know what kind of influence i would have over the public with respect to my system, and the lines are WAY higher than I have ever seen them since I released it.

    As far as the chasing is concerned for live games, I will be around enough to do it on someone's thread. There are enough of my people around to keep a decent thread going.

    Right now things are a little testy about my trip. My wife's doctor is a little taken aback by us going into the heart of H1N1 country (Mexico) at a time when Mexican citizens are being instructed to stay inside for a full week in down there. Almost a country-wide quaranteen (spelling?).

    Our travel agent is also insisting upon a change of atmosphere as well. She is asking us to go to Hawaii instead by trading in our tickets, etc. and there would be no change in the amount of days that we will be gone or accomodations. And it would me much cheaper she is saying. I actually disagree. I have seen the prices in Honolulu, and I highly doubt that. Mexico is much cheaper.

    This is so all of a sudden. The Missus is not pleased. Hawaii is a good destination. I haven't been there in over 10 years. This Swine Flu epidemic is much more dangerous than I thought. I will know more by noon today about the status of our trip.

  23. #23
    laxdjock
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    Hawaii....eh.

    How about St. Lucia? It is one of my favorite destinations, and a bit more low key than a lot of the islands. While it is kind of far from you, I don't think it is much worse than hawaii for travel time.

    ps. The Swine flu has claimed maybe 15 lives stateside....compared to the 36,000 that the "regular" strains of flu claim each year (mostly the elderly and small children).

  24. #24
    million2one
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    Quote Originally Posted by cocknocker View Post
    Good question, I am starting my thing today. I will not play any of them that are over -120 for one to score with the vigorish. Meaning that if the line is over -120, then I am playing it flat and just taking my crumbs from the win instead of getting crazy with it. I did not know what kind of influence i would have over the public with respect to my system, and the lines are WAY higher than I have ever seen them since I released it.

    As far as the chasing is concerned for live games, I will be around enough to do it on someone's thread. There are enough of my people around to keep a decent thread going.

    Right now things are a little testy about my trip. My wife's doctor is a little taken aback by us going into the heart of H1N1 country (Mexico) at a time when Mexican citizens are being instructed to stay inside for a full week in down there. Almost a country-wide quaranteen (spelling?).

    Our travel agent is also insisting upon a change of atmosphere as well. She is asking us to go to Hawaii instead by trading in our tickets, etc. and there would be no change in the amount of days that we will be gone or accomodations. And it would me much cheaper she is saying. I actually disagree. I have seen the prices in Honolulu, and I highly doubt that. Mexico is much cheaper.

    This is so all of a sudden. The Missus is not pleased. Hawaii is a good destination. I haven't been there in over 10 years. This Swine Flu epidemic is much more dangerous than I thought. I will know more by noon today about the status of our trip.
    Hey CK,

    Don't you play all of your system bets flat regardless of the line?

  25. #25
    BCaldwell32
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    quarantine

  26. #26
    repski
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    CK,
    Do you play the ponies?? Any thing on the derby?

  27. #27
    tbill11
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    The Marlins are getting +115 on the +1.5 runline. I don't think Harden has earned that price tag yet this year...might be worth throwing a small bet on.

  28. #28
    ragiche
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    Ck, Have fun on your upcoming vacation.

  29. #29
    spal2811
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    ck,

    i go to school at arizona state and can say that the swine flu is no joke. There have been signs everywhere and articles in the paper warning about going to Mexico. I am sure that the risks vary quite a bit depending on where in Mexico you are going. Saying a trip to Hawaii costs the same as Mexico seems way off. Either way have fun, be safe, and enjoy your break!!!!

  30. #30
    cocknocker
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    Quote Originally Posted by monkey107 View Post
    CK, any parlays again?
    Yeah

    Pirates-130
    Tampa Bay +102
    Giants/Rockies under 8.5 -115
    Padres+116
    A's-110

    $100 to win $2655.22 Lines on Greek.com

  31. #31
    laxdjock
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    Going against my initial lean...I threw down a unit on the Fish +250, as no one is worth -275.

  32. #32
    Jimbo42
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    CK,
    what up bro.. sounds like you've got alot on your plate! You are dealing with the doctor, the travel agent AND the Missus... Holy Cow! Good luck!
    A couple of plays today:
    Colorado -105 (strong play imo)
    Cincinnati +110 (get me some of that div. rival dog crumbs)

    Leans and possible plays on:
    Baltimore +210 (I look for Toronto to have a .500 or below homestand)
    LA Angels +125 (Pettite did not look too good last game could be down)

    GL to everyone
    Last edited by Jimbo42; 05-01-09 at 01:04 PM.

  33. #33
    ragiche
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    Booked plays for today:

    MLB:

    Sdg ML (5x)

    Min RL (5x)

    Sfo RL (5x)

    Oak RRL (2x)

    Det RL (2x) (L)

    Ari RRL (2x)

    Flo/Chc over 4.5 1st 5 inn (small) (W)

    NBA:

    Atl +6.5 (1 pt. buy) (2x) (L)

    Atl/Mia over 182.5 (2x) This will be a close game maybe it will also go to OT,who knows.
    (L)

    GL to all.
    Last edited by ragiche; 05-01-09 at 09:42 PM.

  34. #34
    BmoreBucco
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    Prop bet:

    I see offense.

    [30005] TOTAL o27½-115 (FLA/CUB RUNS+HITS+ERRORS vrs FLA/CUB RUNS+HITS+ERRORS) ( ACTION )

  35. #35
    cocknocker
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    Well now. I hit my first first inning wager. I'm off to a good start! Way to go Marlins

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