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Question to People Here Who Consistently Win
Do all of you guys use some sort of a statistical/mathematical system or do you rely on just winning money by paying attention to how teams and players are performing and trying to capitalize on good/bad matchups?
Can you beat Vegas over the long term by just relying on information that is available to everybody? I see a lot of people here who win as high as 57-60% over 100+ sample sizes, How do you guys handicap?
I rely on how teams and players or doing. Easier not to over think things. Stats are good but not but can get in trouble if used as the only factor.
125361231-1 6/17/12 3:07pm $625.00 $500.00 $1,125.00 Win 6/17/12 3:05pm MLB Baseball 970 Texas Rangers -1½ -125* vs Houston Astros (D Keuchel - L must Start C Lewis - R must Start) 125351635-1 6/17/12 1:23pm $555.00 $500.00 $1,055.00 Win 6/17/12 1:35pm MLB Baseball 961 New York Yankees -111* vs Washington Nationals (I Nova - R must Start E Jackson - R must Start) 125225601-1 6/16/12 11:49am $500.00 $530.00 $1,030.00 Win 6/16/12 2:15pm MLB Baseball 910 St. Louis Cardinals -1 +106* vs Kansas City Royals (B Chen - L must Start J Kelly - R must Start) 125225386-1 6/16/12 11:46am $605.00 $500.00 $1,105.00 Win 6/16/12 1:05pm MLB Baseball 905 New York Yankees -121* vs Washington Nationals (A Pettitte - L must Start J Zimmermann - R must Start) 125150026-1 6/15/12 5:49pm $620.00 $500.00 $0.00 Loss 6/15/12 8:15pm MLB Baseball 972 St. Louis Cardinals -1 -124* vs Kansas City Royals (V Mazzaro - R must Start K Lohse - R must Start) 125147304-1 6/15/12 5:10pm $500.00 $565.00 $1,065.00 Win 6/15/12 7:10pm MLB Baseball 951 Cincinnati Reds +113* vs New York Mets (B Arroyo - R must Start D Gee - R must Start) 125147264-1 6/15/12 5:10pm $500.00 $520.00 $1,020.00 Win 6/15/12 7:05pm MLB Baseball 955 New York Yankees +104* vs Washington Nationals (P Hughes - R must Start G Gonzalez - L must Start) 124775935-1 6/14/12 10:27am $200.00 $2,149.66 $2,349.66 Win 4 Team Parlay Win 6/14/12 12:35pm MLB Baseball 904 Cincinnati Reds -123* vs Cleveland Indians (J Tomlin - R must Start M Leake - R must Start) Win 6/14/12 1:10pm MLB Baseball 905 New York Mets +116* vs Tampa Bay Rays (J Santana - L must Start J Hellickson - R must Start) Win 6/14/12 2:20pm MLB Baseball 907 Detroit Tigers -200* vs Chicago Cubs (J Verlander - R must Start T Wood - L must Start) Win 6/14/12 3:10pm MLB Baseball 909 Oakland Athletics +100* vs Colorado Rockies (J Parker -R must Start A White - R must Start) 124775767-1 6/14/12 10:23am $500.00 $500.00 $1,000.00 Win 6/14/12 3:10pm MLB Baseball 909 Oakland Athletics +100* vs Colorado Rockies (J Parker -R must Start A White - R must Start) 124775729-1 6/14/12 10:22am $615.00 $500.00 $1,115.00 Win 6/14/12 12:35pm MLB Baseball 904 Cincinnati Reds -123* vs Cleveland Indians (J Tomlin - R must Start M Leake - R must Start) 124775528-1 6/14/12 10:17am $500.00 $580.00 $1,080.00 Win 6/14/12 1:10pm MLB Baseball 905 New York Mets +116* vs Tampa Bay Rays (J Santana - L must Start J Hellickson - R must Start)
Playing the hotter teams
Originally Posted by Rone247
Same here. Also fantastic work good sir
Do you have a thread of all your plays?
Naw. Not worth the grief. I see what you go through.Same here. Also fantastic work good sir
Do you have a thread of all your plays?
well, at least do a spreadsheet so you can inspire others to be succesful
your best canche at capping is baseball. No other sport goes this into depth. i look at alot of pitchers splits........ what kind of streak there on.. how theyve faired in certain stadiums and what not. if you spend the time write things down u will be rewarded. no reason why u cant go 70-80% as the other 20% is just flukes and shit luck sometimes.
gameday lineups is pretty big too, I usually don't make the bet unless I know the lineups 1-2 hours before the game.
I actually think baseball is the best because of the pure amount of games. There are around 5,000 games every year and you're going to find at least 100-200 there where Vegas is well off in their line
Do u go by stats or streak? hotter?
Rone post your plays please. or Pm me em.
I do look at stats but mostly by the hotter team. I'm with the Yankees hard right now. They are killing the national league. You don't get extra money by proving your smarter than the next guy. Easy plays out there every night.
That's what I've been saying all along man
I made a ton of money on the dodgers this year who continue to be undervalued by Vegas. I wish you would start a thread and me and you can dominate this stuff with the idea of "key to brilliance = simplicity"
Whoa Rone go on and get yourself some congrats on the run of success.
nice plays to the guy who posted them above ^^^
i dont use a 'system' per se but i take a lot of stats into consideration. any pitching stat i can find i use, not so much offensive stats because to be frank i dont understand the advanced stats designed for position players that well.
when it comes down to it though for me its: common sense > anything
What type of Stats do you look it? If you don't mind sharing...
that's what I feel as well
Betting is not as hard as what people make it out to be
Utilize information others disregard
GL
I pick my spots when I bet, not the typical daily bettor. I avoid daily betting because it's too similar to an impulsive gambler.
My betting sample size won't reach 100 anytime soon which means my plays are unreliable until I make 50 or more bets.
You should look at each sport MLB, NHL, NBA, NFL and College. Which sport are you better at betting and which sport you are terrible at betting.
I feel like there's 1 or 2 plays at least everyday that are a good bet, especially in baseball where you often have 13-15 games in 1 day
When it comes to MLB, NBA and NHL. I think it's best to bet on series. The best of 7 games series determines the better team.
It's not like the NFL or March Madness playoffs where the team win once then the team moves on to the next playoff opponent.
Betting on a playoffs series is much more secure than betting on a regular season game.
This is how I spot bet.
Guys to coin a term from Pulp fiction "lets dont give rone handy's quite yet. This is a 3 day sample size.
I am sure he could show plays on the other side of this spread sheet. He is chooosing not to for good reason.
If simplicity was the answer everyone would be doing it. Rone can we see 6/1-6/14 or did you just start betting on 6/14?
Last edited by pacocn; 06-17-12 at 08:30 PM.
I don't think that's necessarily a bad idea but I love the idea of betting individual games because of pitching matchups
Guys like Matt Cain and RA Dickey have been unbelievably profitable this year
Last edited by brahmabull117; 06-17-12 at 08:27 PM.
agreed..... i also love NFL, cant wait for the season to start.
123613893-1 6/3/12 10:49am $1,440.00 $1,000.00 $0.00 Loss 6/3/12 2:05pm MLB Baseball 957 Cincinnati Reds -144* vs Houston Astros (B Arroyo - R must Start J Lyles - R must Start) 123528504-1 6/2/12 5:20pm $1,030.00 $1,000.00 $1,030.00 Cancelled 6/2/12 7:15pm MLB Baseball 912 San Francisco Giants -1 -103* vs Chicago Cubs (M Garza - R must Start M Cain - R must Start) 123527529-1 6/2/12 5:16pm $1,020.00 $1,000.00 $1,020.00 Cancelled 6/2/12 7:15pm MLB Baseball 912 San Francisco Giants -1 -102* vs Chicago Cubs (M Garza - R must Start M Cain - R must Start) 123519509-1 6/2/12 4:05pm $520.00 $500.00 $0.00 Loss 6/2/12 4:10pm MLB Baseball 924 Chicago White Sox -1 -104* vs Seattle Mariners (H Noesi - R must Start G Floyd - R must Start) 123515743-1 6/2/12 3:39pm $500.00 $1,355.64 $0.00 Loss 2 Team Parlay Loss 6/2/12 4:05pm MLB Baseball 904 Philadelphia Phillies -1 -105* vs Miami Marlins (R Nolasco - R must Start C Hamels - L must Start) Loss 6/2/12 4:10pm MLB Baseball 908 Colorado Rockies -1 -111* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (A Harang - R must Start J Nicasio - R must Start) 123508312-1 6/2/12 2:08pm $550.00 $500.00 $0.00 Loss 6/2/12 2:10pm MLB Baseball 919 Oakland Athletics/Kansas City Royals Under 8 -110* (B McCarthy - R must Start L Hochevar - R must Start) 123393601-1 6/1/12 3:57pm $1,330.00 $1,000.00 $2,330.00 Win 6/1/12 7:05pm MLB Baseball 969 New York Yankees -1 -133* vs Detroit Tigers (C Sabathia - L must Start C Crosby - L must Start) 123377910-1 6/1/12 11:10am $1,240.00 $1,000.00 $2,240.00 Win 6/1/12 8:05pm MLB Baseball 957 Cincinnati Reds -124* vs Houston Astros (M Leake - R must Start J Happ - L must Start) 123377893-1 6/1/12 11:09am $1,060.00 $1,000.00 $2,060.00 Win 6/1/12 8:10pm MLB Baseball 976 Kansas City Royals -1 -106* vs Oakland Athletics (B Colon - R must Start F Paulino - R must Start) for pacoon
124706800-1 6/13/12 5:47pm $200.00 $1,986.32 $0.00 Loss 3 Team Parlay Win 6/13/12 7:05pm MLB Baseball 956 Baltimore Orioles -1½ +150* vs Pittsburgh Pirates (K Correia - R must Start J Arrieta - R must Start) Win 6/13/12 7:10pm MLB Baseball 961 New York Yankees -106* vs Atlanta Braves (H Kuroda - R must Start T Hudson - R must Start) Loss 6/13/12 8:05pm MLB Baseball 966 Texas Rangers -1½ +125* vs Arizona Diamondbacks (W Miley - L must Start M Harrison - L must Start) 124706677-1 6/13/12 5:46pm $585.00 $500.00 $585.00 Cancelled 6/13/12 8:05pm MLB Baseball 966 Texas Rangers -1 -117* vs Arizona Diamondbacks (W Miley - L must Start M Harrison - L must Start) 124706629-1 6/13/12 5:45pm $500.00 $505.00 $1,005.00 Win 6/13/12 7:05pm MLB Baseball 956 Baltimore Orioles -1 +101* vs Pittsburgh Pirates (K Correia - R must Start J Arrieta - R must Start) 124706597-1 6/13/12 5:45pm $530.00 $500.00 $1,030.00 Win 6/13/12 7:10pm MLB Baseball 961 New York Yankees -106* vs Atlanta Braves (H Kuroda - R must Start T Hudson - R must Start) 124672883-1 6/13/12 11:11am $378.79 $500.00 $0.00 Loss 6/13/12 12:35pm MLB Baseball 954 Toronto Blue Jays +132* vs Washington Nationals (S Strasburg - R must Start K Drabek - R must Start) 124586344-1 6/12/12 6:19pm $1,310.00 $1,000.00 $2,310.00 Win 6/12/12 7:10pm MLB Baseball 909 New York Yankees -1 -131* vs Atlanta Braves (C Sabathia - L must Start M Minor - L must Start) 124573395-1 6/12/12 3:42pm $1,220.00 $1,000.00 $2,220.00 Win 6/12/12 7:10pm MLB Baseball 914 Cincinnati Reds -1 -122* vs Cleveland Indians (J Gomez - R must Start J Cueto - R must Start) 124573343-1 6/12/12 3:42pm $1,150.00 $1,000.00 $0.00 Loss 6/12/12 8:05pm MLB Baseball 915 Detroit Tigers -1 -115* vs Chicago Cubs (M Scherzer - R must Start P Maholm - L must Start) 124573227-1 6/12/12 3:40pm $1,280.00 $1,000.00 $2,280.00 Win 6/12/12 7:10pm MLB Baseball 909 New York Yankees -1 -128* vs Atlanta Braves (C Sabathia - L must Start M Minor - L must Start) 124503411-1 6/11/12 6:06pm $200.00 $1,231.14 $0.00 Loss 3 Team Parlay Loss 6/11/12 7:05pm MLB Baseball 952 Toronto Blue Jays -1 -120* vs Washington Nationals (E Jackson - R must Start B Morrow - R must Start) Loss 6/11/12 7:10pm MLB Baseball 955 Boston Red Sox -102* vs Miami Marlins (J Beckett - R must Start J Johnson - R must Start) Win 6/11/12 10:10pm MLB Baseball 957 Los Angeles Angels -103* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (G Richards - R must Start C Capuano - L must Start) 124494189-1 6/11/12 3:58pm $515.00 $500.00 $0.00 Loss 6/11/12 7:10pm MLB Baseball 955 Boston Red Sox -103* vs Miami Marlins (J Beckett - R must Start J Johnson - R must Start) 124494155-1 6/11/12 3:58pm $575.00 $500.00 $0.00 Loss 6/11/12 8:05pm NHL Hockey 11 New Jersey Devils/Los Angeles Kings Under 4½ -115* 124471796-1 6/11/12 9:00am $500.00 $520.00 $1,020.00 Win 6/11/12 10:10pm MLB Baseball 957 Los Angeles Angels +104* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (G Richards - R must Start C Capuano - L must Start) 124387432-1 6/10/12 1:08pm $500.00 $535.00 $1,035.00 Win 6/10/12 1:10pm MLB Baseball 907 Tampa Bay Rays +107* vs Miami Marlins (J Shields - R must Start A Sanchez - R must Start) 124381382-1 6/10/12 12:23pm $600.00 $500.00 $1,100.00 Win 6/10/12 1:35pm MLB Baseball 915 Washington Nationals/Boston Red Sox Under 9 -120* (J Zimmermann - R must Start J Lester - L must Start) 124316079-1 6/9/12 9:49pm $550.00 $500.00 $1,050.00 Win 6/9/12 8:30pm NBA Basketball 728 Miami Heat 2nd Half -9 -110* vs Boston Celtics 124305271-1 6/9/12 8:24pm $210.00 $200.00 $0.00 Loss 6/9/12 8:30pm NBA Basketball 728 Miami Heat 1st Quarter -3 -105* vs Boston Celtics 124285202-1 6/9/12 7:01pm $500.00 $1,075.72 $1,575.72 Win 2 Team Parlay Win 6/9/12 7:15pm MLB Baseball 970 New York Yankees -1 -128* vs New York Mets (D Gee - R must Start P Hughes - R must Start) Win 6/9/12 7:15pm MLB Baseball 977 Los Angeles Dodgers -130* vs Seattle Mariners (C Kershaw - L must Start J Vargas - L must Start) 124253622-1 6/9/12 4:08pm $590.00 $500.00 $1,090.00 Win 6/9/12 4:10pm MLB Baseball 965 Los Angeles Angels -1 -118* vs Colorado Rockies (D Haren - R must Start J Francis - L must Start) 124221993-1 6/9/12 11:45am $660.00 $500.00 $1,160.00 Win 6/9/12 2:10pm MLB Baseball 954 Minnesota Twins -132* vs Chicago Cubs (J Samardzija - R must Start S Diamond - L must Start) 124221691-1 6/9/12 11:42am $300.00 $2,304.68 $2,604.68 Win 4 Team Parlay Win 6/9/12 2:10pm MLB Baseball 954 Minnesota Twins -132* vs Chicago Cubs (J Samardzija - R must Start S Diamond - L must Start) Win 6/9/12 4:10pm MLB Baseball 963 Detroit Tigers -144* vs Cincinnati Reds (J Verlander - R must Start B Arroyo - R must Start) Win 6/9/12 4:10pm MLB Baseball 965 Los Angeles Angels -1 -118* vs Colorado Rockies (D Haren - R must Start J Francis - L must Start) Win 6/9/12 4:10pm MLB Baseball 968 Chicago White Sox -1 -173* vs Houston Astros (J Lyles - R must Start C Sale - L must Start) 124115771-1 6/8/12 12:15pm $879.00 $771.05 $1,650.05 Win 6/8/12 8:40pm MLB Baseball 923 Los Angeles Angels -1 -114* vs Colorado Rockies (C Wilson - L must Start A White - R must Start) 124062234-1 6/7/12 8:07pm $510.00 $500.00 $510.00 Cancelled 6/7/12 8:10pm MLB Baseball 974 Chicago White Sox -1 -102* vs Toronto Blue Jays (H Alvarez - R must Start J Peavy - R must Start) 124057277-1 6/7/12 7:00pm $1,020.00 $1,000.00 $1,020.00 Cancelled 6/7/12 8:10pm MLB Baseball 974 Chicago White Sox -1 -102* vs Toronto Blue Jays (H Alvarez - R must Start J Peavy - R must Start) 124005581-1 6/7/12 12:16am $500.00 $1,069.14 $1,569.14 Win 2 Team Parlay Win 6/7/12 1:05pm MLB Baseball 951 New York Mets -122* vs Washington Nationals (R Dickey - R must Start C Wang - R must Start) Win 6/7/12 3:35pm MLB Baseball 957 San Francisco Giants -138* vs San Diego Padres (M Cain - R must Start J Marquis - R must Start) 123999957-1 6/6/12 11:38pm $300.00 $1,180.05 $0.00 Loss 3 Team Parlay Win 6/7/12 1:05pm MLB Baseball 951 New York Mets -120* vs Washington Nationals (R Dickey - R must Start C Wang - R must Start) Loss 6/7/12 1:05pm MLB Baseball 954 Philadelphia Phillies -180* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (A Harang - R must Start C Hamels - L must Start) Win 6/7/12 3:35pm MLB Baseball 957 San Francisco Giants -137* vs San Diego Padres (M Cain - R must Start J Marquis - R must Start) 123947283-1 6/6/12 8:03pm $807.00 $775.96 $807.00 Cancelled 6/6/12 8:05pm MLB Baseball 911 St. Louis Cardinals -1 -104* vs Houston Astros (A Wainwright - R must Start B Norris - R must Start) 123913546-1 6/6/12 9:59am $1,200.00 $1,000.00 $0.00 Loss 6/6/12 10:05pm MLB Baseball 927 Texas Rangers -1 -120* vs Oakland Athletics (C Lewis - R must Start B Colon - R must Start) 123860100-1 6/5/12 9:38pm $1,140.00 $1,000.00 $2,140.00 Win 6/5/12 9:40pm MLB Baseball 964 Arizona Diamondbacks -1 -114* vs Colorado Rockies (J Guthrie - R must Start I Kennedy - R must Start) 123821441-1 6/5/12 11:00am $1,200.00 $1,000.00 $0.00 Loss 6/5/12 7:05pm MLB Baseball 970 Detroit Tigers -1 -120* vs Cleveland Indians (U Jimenez - R must Start D Smyly - L must Start) 123765760-1 6/4/12 7:59pm $525.00 $500.00 $1,025.00 Win 6/4/12 8:05pm NHL Hockey 5 New Jersey Devils/Los Angeles Kings Under 4½ -105* 123744663-1 6/4/12 2:42pm $1,310.00 $1,000.00 $2,310.00 Win 6/4/12 3:45pm MLB Baseball 904 San Francisco Giants -131* vs Chicago Cubs (J Samardzija - R must Start R Vogelsong - R must Start)
Thanks Rone, Impressive, but still a very small sample size, keep up the good work,
what are your totals for mlb since April?
Rone do a spread sheet, it's impossible to tell how well you're doing
Rone, I am sure you know i would be skeptical of a 3 day
sample, sports betting is a grind, and it is not simple,
money management is the key, i don't think anyone can
make it look easy for a substantial amount of time.
For what it's worth. Going back to last season when I was tracking plays, I have won 43 out of 65 plays relying on nothing but the things that Rone is talking about. The odds of that being nothing but pure luck are very small (around 5-6% using a binomial probability calculator)
I don't think picking winners is as difficult as people claim it is. There are a ton of people on this site who consistently win at a high % (I saw a guy who hit 58% over a 500 sample size)
The real reason that most of us, myself included, struggle to make any money is terrible bankroll management. I turned a 300 BR last season into a 7500+ BR and lost it all because of horrible BR management
You just gotta be smart and consistent with your plays and have good BR management and you'll make money
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