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Anyone crazy enough to back Dumpy and the Cubs on Friday afternoon?
Even money basically (so far) vs. Dice-K and the Red Sawx. Dempster is the better pitcher. Boston is the better hitting team. Bullpens are equally horrible.
If this weren't a day game, I'd stay 1,000 miles away from it. Hard not to pull the trigger in the afternoon though....Cubs should probably be about +105 here minimum, which means Boston is probably bait.
I was looking at this game too man, honestly Dice K was not bad for his first outing since being back only giving up four runs to a much better offensive club in the Nationals, Boston had no offense in that game. Boston had some life in Miami, coming off a 10-2 win. But I can't take this with Dempster on the mound, Chicago gets up to play for him.
scratching my head
cubs were -105 vs detroit in game 2 of the series and lost
so the fact that vegas is setting this line again makes me think they win
cubs are always a fade/no play on a weekday (day game) for me. Think I'm staying away from this one and just watch golf and my kuchar bets lol
You can get so much value in Dempster in other spots, the lines in his last two starts were +132 and +141. I'd only ever play the Cubs at + money.
Also the Sox bullpen > Cubs bullpen by a mile. If you pulled up the stats on the Sox bullpen since that game in April against the Yankees where they gave up a 9 run lead, I'm certain they'd be in the top 5 in the majors.
Dice-K shouldnt last more than 6 innings as hes on a short leash, unless he works extremely efficiently (anyone who follows Sox baseball knows this is highly unlikely) so the Sox bullpen should have at least 3 innings to pitch and they're coming off a rest day so they're all fresh.
I like the Sox here
Think Cubs won only 2 interleague games, going with BoSox!
EZ
In the win against Miami on the 13th, Doubront went 7 innings. Today the bullpen had a rest day.
Sox bull pen on the road 2.7 ERA and 1.175 WHIP
Cubs bull pen at home 3.93 ERA and 1.471 WHIP (today's loss against Detroit not factored in)
Small edge to Sox here.
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Dice-K is still a question mark since returning from surgery. Alot of people feel optimistic about him but you won't convince me that giving up 4 runs in 5 innings is anything to write home about (even if he did get 8 k's).
Dempster's future with the Cubs is up in the air from the research I've done. Will he bring extra motivation to the mound so that his stock may increase in value...? If his last two games are any indication, I think so.
Slight edge to Cubs here.
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As for hitting, Sox gets the edge IF they can wake up like they did on the 13th.
Sox also knows they can still salvage the season. And I don't know if there was any acrimony with Epstein's departure. If there was, it wouldn't surprise me if the Sox bring extra venom to Chicago.
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Sox are 10-5 on the road with money line between -100 and -125.
Cubs are 1-3 at home with money line between -100 and -125.
Edge to Sox here.
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When playing with a day off, both teams suck with Boston at 2-5 and Cubs at 3-5.
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As for line movements, both teams opened about the same or the Sox opened as a dog - depending on the book you're looking at. The market has already adjusted at the time of this post with the Sox now a short fave. Nothing fishy from what I can tell.
At this point, I'm leaning Boston. I'm not tailing Dice-K so much as I'm putting faith in Boston's bats doing just enough and their bull pen doing just enough to get them out of the purgatory of being a .500 or less team (which has to be eating them up inside).
I'm going to look at other factors tomorrow. Of course, if anyone has anything to add, it is welcome.
Last edited by EVPlus; 06-15-12 at 02:12 AM.
^^^ summed it up very well.
anybody have any word on the wind tomorrow? dice-k gets more strikeouts and ground balls than dempster, if the wind is blowing out it'll be batting practice for boston
Sox 4-5 interleague.Originally Posted by ezmoney
Cubs 2-6 interleague.
Wind may be of interest
Boston is 6-1 in favor of overs on a days rest.
Wind could be an important factor.
wind info
looks like the wind will be East/Southeast @ 12, which is not an over wind direction. Right to left field
Like you said Coin Dempster is the better pitcher. The rest of this game is a coin toss imo. The Sox have been inconsistent this year and I just can't take them in this spot. I am going against my better judgement and taking a gamble on the Cubs today for 2 units.
no reason to even bet or think about even betting this awful game
only thing i wouldn't be surprised is if dumpster goes 8 and shuts sox out and then closer comes in and takes a hot steamer on the mound and they lose
neither team can be trusted atm. cubs can't be trusted at any time this year.
all the games today don't look very appealing to be honest
BOSOX now -115, road record 17-13. (record 31-32)
Cubs 13-17 at HOME. (overall 21-42)
Ortiz and Company want to stick it to Epstein.
EZ
Dempster is easily the better pitcher, but offenses are well different when facing righties. CUbs 93 wRC+, Bos 106 wRC+. Line is set perfect IMO as pretty much any scenario here is possible. Demspter pitching well and the offense can't hit? very possible. Dice-K gives up 5 and the cubs pen blows it? happened plenty before. Will boston start to hit again? who the eff knows. TOo many variables to have any idea who could win. Plenty of other games on the card to play today.
stop analyzing, its the fukking Scrubs.
i'm on the Red Sox
and later i think the Rangers are automatic.
Well said Ex. Who knows which way this game will go.
I hear this statement alot and I always ask, "then what's the better play on today's mlb card...?" Every game has it's potential for profit, traps to get suckered into, an edge/angle.
There are no gifts in sports betting.
When it comes to the Sox and Cubs though, the unpredictability factor goes through the roof -- especially with Dice-K on the mound.
Got cubs in my thread, 1x
Couldn't pass up on the cubs at +127. That line should have stopped at +115. We'll see how it works out though; I'm going to be biting my nails the entire game
Not really, Dumpster has been an above average pitcher this entire year. Nevertheless, there are no advantages in pitching for the Cubs and his W-L record suffers.
Only way Cubs lose is if Marmol pitches the 7,8, and 9th innings.
Well there are 14 other games to bet is what I meant. Why force something on a Cubs game that has unpredictable variables is what I was saying.
But from No coin's thread, here are the ones I'm focusing on
Got on the Yanks last night, NC.
Just jumped on Tampa after seeing them at -130 while everyone else is -138 or worse. Moore has put together a nice string of 5 starts against some good offenses.
I'll probably take minnesota's team total over as well as them to win. Axford and Rodriguez are both probably going to rest today; hoping the Loe / Veras / Parra combo will live up to their ERA's.
Somehow skipped looking at Seattle last night. I'm on them as well.
Last play will probably be on the mets. Reds are the best hitting team in the league against lefties, but against righties, middle of the pack in walks, 5th in K%, and mid-to-low 20's in wOBA, wRC+. I think it's safe to say Gee is the better pitcher as well. Early money on Cincy, but even with 56% (59% at SI) of the backers, line isn't budging much at all.
Also on Indians. They simply crussssh righties and i think Masterson is finally starting to turn a corner. Mcdonald has been fantastic, but we'll see how he fares against an AL club loaded with lefties (He doesn't have a changeup, so his splits v Lefties are pretty rough --- 4.26 xfip v LHH, 2.81 v RHH as seen on Fangraphs
I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with
Last edited by EXhoosier10; 06-15-12 at 02:02 PM.
wow is daisuke really this bad, I have big bet on boston, this is scrap
Dice K is awful, A-Gone is not an outfielder, the Red Sox should just give up on that brainstorm to stick him in right, he played a bloop single by Dempster into a triple, that one play will cost them the game, the Sox are a mess, Youk doesn't care anymore, Pedroia is nowhere near the player he was two years ago...................
I think the Sox are toast. I can't get a goddamn break. Getting crushed. When I take the Dog, they get killed and I get mad at myself. Now I take the favorite and they are losing. It's really unbelieveable. I just can't win, no matter what.
Way to go Podsednick!!! Nothing like swinging at ball 4 to lead off the inning. I can't take this crap. Fuk Me
What was the reason people were on the Red Sox? It didn't make sense? What are they exactly better at? Numbers aren't anything. Red Sox have proven to be inconsistent garbage.
The game isn't over, but who didn't expect the Cubs to get 3-5 runs out of the starting pitcher? This should have been predicted.
outs all around, boston cant touch the ball and daisuke you are just plain dumb, cant they at least pull him? Why was this my biggest play
This. You should go spend that money already
The Ump fuked Daiske in the first inning. He threw a perfect pitch and the outside corner before the runs came in. The Ump called it a ball. Every other pitch there has been a strike since. Ridiculous
wow a full round for daisuke. Only way he can get them out is if they hit the ball out to the field and catch it LOL
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