[brahmabull117]

Some early leans I'm looking at



Dodgers -101. The Phillies have no business being favored at home against any halfway decent opponent. They're 12-17 now at home and fading their homegames has just been astoundingly profitable



Red Sox - 170/RL +120. Baltimore won game 1, but I still think they're a complete fraud and will continue regress to their expected level of play. Chen has really struggled recently and facing an offense that averages about 6 runs a game at home will likely not be kind. Beckett has been inconsistent this year, but he has pitched pretty well outside of 2 starts against the tigers and 1 bad start against cleveland. Big thing that scares me is Beckett's career numbers have been terrible against Baltimore recently



Rangers - 150/ RL + 110. Rangers have played well on the road and have owned Oakland in recent years. They're due for a nice long hot streak after losing something like 6 out of 8 games. Colby lewis has pitched well, just gotten f*cked by bad defense and bad luck. Colon has been brutal recently



Brewers - 210/RL around even. Brewers 19-1 last 20 homegames when Greinke started. Cubs against a decent opponent is autofade material. I don't believe they've won 2 straight on the road all season and I don't expect it to start tomorrow



Angels - 150/RL +130. Angels have been red hot for a while now as they climb to the record that people expect them to have. Noesi is absolutely terrible and Jerome Williams is pretty good. I thought this line would be around - 200. Real value here IMO

[ShogunRua]

you are the worst gambler ive ever seen

[brahmabull117]

you are the worst gambler ive ever seen

If you're not going to post something constructive, GTFO

[No coincidences]

Thanks brama! Ever consider going in with Chalk Landers as tag-team touts?

[brahmabull117]

Thanks brama! Ever consider going in with Chalk Landers as tag-team touts?

My last 4 baseball plays have been - 160, 140, 130 and + 140 (3 cub fading wins and the red sox loss today). That's an avg play of about -120 and you make it sound like I'm playing - 500 lines

[No coincidences]

My last 4 baseball plays have been - 160, 140, 130 and + 140 (3 cub fading wins and the red sox loss today). That's an avg play of about -120 and you make it sound like I'm playing - 500 lines

What are you talking about? Where?

[JMobile]

Some early leans I'm looking at



Dodgers -101. The Phillies have no business being favored at home against any halfway decent opponent. They're 12-17 now at home and fading their homegames has just been astoundingly profitable



Red Sox - 170/RL +120. Baltimore won game 1, but I still think they're a complete fraud and will continue regress to their expected level of play. Chen has really struggled recently and facing an offense that averages about 6 runs a game at home will likely not be kind. Beckett has been inconsistent this year, but he has pitched pretty well outside of 2 starts against the tigers and 1 bad start against cleveland. Big thing that scares me is Beckett's career numbers have been terrible against Baltimore recently



Rangers - 150/ RL + 110. Rangers have played well on the road and have owned Oakland in recent years. They're due for a nice long hot streak after losing something like 6 out of 8 games. Colby lewis has pitched well, just gotten f*cked by bad defense and bad luck. Colon has been brutal recently



Brewers - 210/RL around even. Brewers 19-1 last 20 homegames when Greinke started. Cubs against a decent opponent is autofade material. I don't believe they've won 2 straight on the road all season and I don't expect it to start tomorrow



Angels - 150/RL +130. Angels have been red hot for a while now as they climb to the record that people expect them to have. Noesi is absolutely terrible and Jerome Williams is pretty good. I thought this line would be around - 200. Real value here IMO

Add it to your spreadsheet????

[pacocn]

I think the Cubbies can do it at +193 as long as the
lactic acid build up in their quads and hams are not to heavy
from rounding the bases today so many times.

[NittanyLionsFan]

you are the worst gambler ive ever seen

LOL

this was about, word for word, my exact thought when I read this joke of an OP. Did he seriously just make a post taking every -150 to -210 team on the ML and the RL? Or is this some hilarious dream? LMAO

[jbart28]

If you take these picks tomorrow you should have your head examined. The only one worth looking at is
rangers rl. The over is better imo.

Their are at least a dozen better bets tomorrow than these. Look closer

[taxe91]

that red sox bet looks so good that its probably too good to be true:

the red sox average a run more against leftys than rightys, the orioles average half a run less against rightys than leftys.
beckett has a 2.91 ERA through his last 3, chen has a 7.31 in the same time frame. the rookie has been figured out.
as far as i know a-gon will be playing RF meaning middlebrooks aka the best rookie infielder in the majors will be in the lineup.
daniel nava and podsenik have been two of the most productive outfielders over the past week or so.


it looks like an easy game for boston, but i'd feel like the biggest sucker if it lost with all these things in the sox favour

[EXhoosier10]

Love the thread, Brahma. Wish you tons and tons of luck today -- you're going to need it.

[ebbearsfb1]

Beckett got hit around reall nice against the tigers at home the other night... guess you missed that one?

[taxe91]

Beckett got hit around reall nice against the tigers at home the other night... guess you missed that one?

doesnt bother me. detroit went in with the same gameplan the rays used against beckett earlier in the year, swing early in the count. it didnt work for the rays, it did work for the tigers, thats the beauty of random hit distribution. after all, one earned run less and he wouldve qualified for yet another quality start. had the 4th highest quality start % in the AL leading into that start, and hes still in the top 10. and anyone that knows boston and fenway park, knows that a quality start will often get the job done in that park.

and his LOB% is right in line with his career average this year so i have no reason to believe he was lucky not to give up more runs to the tigers.

[NittanyLionsFan]

LOL #hilariousthread

[brahmabull117]

that red sox bet looks so good that its probably too good to be true:

the red sox average a run more against leftys than rightys, the orioles average half a run less against rightys than leftys.
beckett has a 2.91 ERA through his last 3, chen has a 7.31 in the same time frame. the rookie has been figured out.
as far as i know a-gon will be playing RF meaning middlebrooks aka the best rookie infielder in the majors will be in the lineup.
daniel nava and podsenik have been two of the most productive outfielders over the past week or so.


it looks like an easy game for boston, but i'd feel like the biggest sucker if it lost with all these things in the sox favour

I think the angels are the best play for today. Only - 150 with big pitching advantage and them being red hot

[ThaTopMoron]

you are the worst gambler ive ever seen

[kramerthekid]

Brah any NBA play tonight?

[HoulihansTX]

Thread lacks creativity.

[brahmabull117]

Thread lacks creativity.

first time in a while I've liked several plays in a day but it's hard to resist Rangers on the road against the A's on a 2-10 streak, the cubs on the road against Greinke, Angels red hot facing Hector Noesi (who is just awful), fading Phillies at home (Goldmine) or Beckett Facing Wang


I'm still debating what I'm going to play though. I'm trying to cut it down to 2 or 3

[brahmabull117]

alright guys, my 3 plays are



Rangers + 110 RL
Brewers - 210 - I hate laying this level of juice but you gotta do it with the cubs or you're not capitalizing on their terrible record in 1 run games
Angels - 150



Good luck to everybody

[dudekid]

well brahma the one play i liked on your original post it looks like you arent playing...why not the dodgers? i thought you had a good point there, phillies have been way below avg at home and they are favored over the dodgers...i dont think ill be playing LAD but any reason why you arent?

[dudekid]

my leans, btw:

padres
astros
athletics

devils NHL
maybe okc under NBA

[ShogunRua]

well brahma the one play i liked on your original post it looks like you arent playing...why not the dodgers? i thought you had a good point there, phillies have been way below avg at home and they are favored over the dodgers...i dont think ill be playing LAD but any reason why you arent?

He only plays favorites of -150 or higher. Dodgers were a slight dog so it became an automatic no play for him.

[brahmabull117]

well brahma the one play i liked on your original post it looks like you arent playing...why not the dodgers? i thought you had a good point there, phillies have been way below avg at home and they are favored over the dodgers...i dont think ill be playing LAD but any reason why you arent?

I liked that play but I feel like Chris Capuano is pitching way above his career averages and will continue to come down to earth


Still not a bad play at all though

He only plays favorites of -150 or higher. Dodgers were a slight dog so it became an automatic no play for him.

which is why I played red sox +140 yesterday and rangers +110 today...

[Night-Tripper]

He only plays favorites of -150 or higher. Dodgers were a slight dog so it became an automatic no play for him.

which is why I played red sox +140 yesterday and rangers +110 yesterday...

That was the Run Line price... not the moneyline.

[brahmabull117]

That was the Run Line price... not the moneyline.

what's your point? I thought the Dodgers were a great play yesterday and I think the indians are a good play today as well



I don't have a problem with underdogs, I just don't like playing them because I want to win at a very high rate. You do you and I'll do me

[EXhoosier10]

well brahma the one play i liked on your original post it looks like you arent playing...why not the dodgers? i thought you had a good point there, phillies have been way below avg at home and they are favored over the dodgers...i dont think ill be playing LAD but any reason why you arent?

You should be happy he's not playing them. Brahma doesn't win.

[brahmabull117]

You should be happy he's not playing them. Brahma doesn't win.

I'm 3-1 my last 4 baseball plays



Check out my threads fading the cubs against the giants in game 2, 3 and 4 of their 4 game sweep

[Night-Tripper]

what's your point? I thought the Dodgers were a great play yesterday and I think the indians are a good play today as well

You shoulda played them...

[Night-Tripper]

You should be happy he's not playing them. Brahma doesn't win.

I am/I know

[brahmabull117]

You shoulda played them...

yea I'm kicking myself for not playing the Indians



I just gotta start playing underdogs, problem for me is I would much rather win a 65% clip betting -150 lines than win at a 50% clip betting +130 lines. I know it's about the same in terms of profitability but I HATE losing

[Night-Tripper]

yea I'm kicking myself for not playing the Indians



I just gotta start playing underdogs, problem for me is I would much rather win a 65% clip betting -150 lines than win at a 50% clip betting +130 lines. I know it's about the same in terms of profitability but I HATE losing

Listen dude... probably been doing this longer than you've been alive and it's all about making money. I don't give a fukk about winning percentages. My approach will allow me to be profitable as long as I stay above 40% -> 45%. If you're going to be playing any favorite over -120, you'd better be hitting at a 60% clip. Odds of doing that ain't worth it. Take tonight for example... you could go 2-1 and end up juicing out. Learn to love small favorites and dogs that are live... your bankroll will appreciate it.

[brahmabull117]

Listen dude... probably been doing this longer than you've been alive and it's all about making money. I don't give a fukk about winning percentages. My approach will allow me to be profitable as long as I stay above 40% -> 45%. If you're going to be playing any favorite over -120, you'd better be hitting at a 60% clip. Odds of doing that ain't worth it. Take tonight for example... you could go 2-1 and end up juicing out. Learn to love small favorites and dogs that are live... your bankroll will appreciate it.

I don't think it's any harder to hit 65% on -150 lines than hitting 50% on + 130 lines. It's all the same really


The real downside to not playing dogs is that you don't take advantage of excellent dogs - like the dodgers yesterday were a great dog (a whopping + 180 against a team that is now 12-17 at home)


I'm going to try to slowly increase the number of dogs I play

[ShogunRua]

I'm 3-1 my last 4 baseball plays



Check out my threads fading the cubs against the giants in game 2, 3 and 4 of their 4 game sweep

Yeah guys! And also check out his plays from his spreadsheet about a week ago that went like 2-8 laying average juice of about -170!

Oh wait, I forgot. He deleted them from his spreadsheet...