1. #1
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Is Finding Overrated/Underrated Teams One of The Most Important Aspect of Gambling?

    Pretty much every year, you have 2-4 teams that really really overperform/underperform what Vegas expects so they end up making/losing a lot of money over the course of the season. So far this year, the Tigers, cubs and padres have been a fading goldmine at around a combined -45 units for the season for all their games. I expect that both the cubs and padres will both lose 100-110 games this year as both teams are truly atrocious and expect both teams to finish a HUGE number in the negative in terms of total units



    Last year, you had the same thing with the Phillies, Astros and Brewers. Astros were a fading goldmine all the way until September, Brewers were a goldmine nearly all year and the Phillies made a ton of money between march to august as well



    Is this one of the best ways to make money?

  2. #2
    Squirrel Kokomo
    Squirrel Kokomo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-12
    Posts: 345
    Betpoints: 293

    Fading you is not over or underrated since you've been around awhile, but it is one of the most important aspects of gambling.

  3. #3
    HoulihansTX
    Bowl $ea$on
    HoulihansTX's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-11-09
    Posts: 30,566
    Betpoints: 295

    Its the whole point.

    Its why lines move. Very simple concept.

  4. #4
    aznbluff
    Update your status
    aznbluff's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-24-08
    Posts: 892
    Betpoints: 722

    Ya it's the whole point.

    Also, Cubs and Padres are underrated, while Texas is overrated. If you are thinking of fading the Padres/Cubs from now on you'll lose money. And you'll lose money backing Texas also

  5. #5
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    Its the whole point.

    Its why lines move. Very simple concept.

    The cubs line actually went down though today, which was shocking to me. I thought people would be happy to fade the Scrubbies who just keep losing and losing and losing

  6. #6
    underal
    underal's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-12
    Posts: 224
    Betpoints: 14653

    its easy to look back and see this but can you look ahead and see who is overvalued and worth fading and who is undervalued and worth backing?
    personally i am looking to fade nats and marlins for the next week or so

  7. #7
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by aznbluff View Post
    Ya it's the whole point.

    Also, Cubs and Padres are underrated, while Texas is overrated. If you are thinking of fading the Padres/Cubs from now on you'll lose money. And you'll lose money backing Texas also


    I agree about Texas maybe being slightly overrated, but cubs and padres underrated? What in the world do you base that on? Both teams are like the 2011 Astros in that they're gonna lose a whole lot of games this year


    It's going to be very profitable to fade them until Vegas adjusts and starts doing -200 lines every time they face decent teams

  8. #8
    Squirrel Kokomo
    Squirrel Kokomo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-12
    Posts: 345
    Betpoints: 293

    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post
    The cubs line actually went down though today, which was shocking to me. I thought people would be happy to fade the Scrubbies who just keep losing and losing and losing
    and the Texas line moved in their direction by the close from the opener.

    Cubs lost by more than one run, Rangers won by more than one run. Go figure.

  9. #9
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by underal View Post
    its easy to look back and see this but can you look ahead and see who is overvalued and worth fading and who is undervalued and worth backing?

    I agree, the hard point is watching the teams and anticipating instead of reacting. It's really kind of like the stock market



    With that being said, I thought the cubs would be just godawful before the season even began. No surprise at all to me that they've been getting dominated for a while now

  10. #10
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by Squirrel Kokomo View Post
    and the Texas line moved in their direction by the close from the opener.

    Cubs lost by more than one run, Rangers won by more than one run. Go figure.

    the Texas series was a total coinflip I thought

  11. #11
    HoulihansTX
    Bowl $ea$on
    HoulihansTX's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-11-09
    Posts: 30,566
    Betpoints: 295

    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post
    The cubs line actually went down though today, which was shocking to me. I thought people would be happy to fade the Scrubbies who just keep losing and losing and losing
    The moneyline represents probability, not the definite result of tomorrow newspaper.

    Use the spread/Moneyline calculator located on this website in order to convert moneylines into percentages.

  12. #12
    underal
    underal's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-12
    Posts: 224
    Betpoints: 14653

    i disagree on cubs. they are undervalued now and i am looking to play them. they have revamped the bullpen which hurt them bad till now. the lineup is actually better than most in the nl but not against lefties. dropping soriano down to 7th woulld help as well

  13. #13
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    The moneyline represents probability, not the definite result of tomorrow newspaper.

    Use the spread/Moneyline calculator located on this website in order to convert moneylines into percentages.

    I would say these moneylines is what Vegas perceives the ability of these teams




    Most of their lines are based on a power rankings that they have before the season that they adjust as the season goes on +/- home advantage

  14. #14
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by underal View Post
    i disagree on cubs. they are undervalued now and i am looking to play them. they have revamped the bullpen which hurt them bad till now. the lineup is actually better than most in the nl but not against lefties. dropping soriano down to 7th woulld help as well

    I'm a huge cubs fan myself and I'm not sure what you're looking at. There's not 1 reliable offensive player in the lineup, a terrible bullpen that continues to struggle and an average starting staff that has really overachieved so far. Ryan Dempster and Jeff Samardzia are pitching nearly 1.50 point above their career average in era. Both guys will come down to earth


    I expect Garza and Dempster to get traded somewhere along the line and the team will be truly atrocious after that point. 106 losses would be my guess
    Last edited by brahmabull117; 06-03-12 at 06:51 PM.

  15. #15
    HoulihansTX
    Bowl $ea$on
    HoulihansTX's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-11-09
    Posts: 30,566
    Betpoints: 295

    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post
    I would say these moneylines is what Vegas perceives the ability of these teams




    Most of their lines are based on a power rankings that they have before the season that they adjust as the season goes on +/- home advantage
    Moneyline
    Loss
    Win
    Win %
    Required
    -320 -320 100 76.19%
    -300 -300 100 75.00%
    -280 -280 100 73.68%
    -270 -270 100 72.97%
    -260 -260 100 72.22%
    -250 -250 100 71.43%
    -240 -240 100 70.59%
    -230 -230 100 69.70%
    -220 -220 100 68.75%
    -210 -210 100 67.74%
    -200 -200 100 66.67%
    -180 -180 100 64.29%
    -170 -170 100 62.96%
    -160 -160 100 61.54%
    -150 -150 100 60.00%
    -140 -140 100 58.33%
    -130 -130 100 56.52%
    -120 -120 100 54.55%
    -110 -110 100 52.38%
    -105 -105 100 51.22%
    -100 -100 100 50.00%
    105 -100 105 48.78%
    110 -100 110 47.62%
    120 -100 120 45.45%
    130 -100 130 43.48%
    140 -100 140 41.67%
    150 -100 150 40.00%
    160 -100 160 38.46%
    170 -100 170 37.04%
    180 -100 180 35.71%
    200 -100 200 33.33%
    210 -100 210 32.26%
    220 -100 220 31.25%
    230 -100 230 30.30%
    240 -100 240 29.41%
    250 -100 250 28.57%
    260 -100 260 27.78%
    270 -100 270 27.03%
    280 -100 280 26.32%
    290 -100 290 25.64%
    300 -100 300 25.00%


  16. #16
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post


    that's an awesome chart, thanks

  17. #17
    underal
    underal's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-12
    Posts: 224
    Betpoints: 14653

    i think that against righties with lahair campana and dejesus in there this is an above average lineup. the problem is that against lefties lahair and dejesus are non existant and there is nobody to replace them

  18. #18
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by underal View Post
    i think that against righties with lahair campana and dejesus in there this is an above average lineup. the problem is that against lefties lahair and dejesus are non existant and there is nobody to replace them

    they're about average in OPS vs righties (16th in OPS), absolutely awful vs lefties (deadlast in runs and OPS)



    they're also #26 in the league in defensive efficiency and 26th in era. This is a team that is literally terrible at everything. I would be shocked if they win more than 60 games

  19. #19
    Squirrel Kokomo
    Squirrel Kokomo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-25-12
    Posts: 345
    Betpoints: 293

    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post
    that's an awesome chart, thanks
    if you could not reasonably estimate all of those percentages yourself you should not be gambling.

  20. #20
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by Squirrel Kokomo View Post
    if you could not reasonably estimate all of those percentages yourself you should not be gambling.

    I can, I actually somewhat knew all of those except for - 150 - I thought -150 would be about 58%. Still it's cool to see all the numbers for every line on a chart

  21. #21
    underal
    underal's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-12
    Posts: 224
    Betpoints: 14653

    where do they stand in the nl against righties? take a look at rest of the lineups and you will see that they are better than most. i think you can find value in them in the right spots-obviously not against any leftie-zito shut them out today and it was no surprise if you noticed how bad they are against lefties

  22. #22
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by underal View Post
    where do they stand in the nl against righties? take a look at rest of the lineups and you will see that they are better than most. i think you can find value in them in the right spots-obviously not against any leftie-zito shut them out today and it was no surprise if you noticed how bad they are against lefties


    they're #16th in the league in OPS against righties. I'll still fade them against any decent righty though because of their terrible defense, bullpen and starting staff outside of maybe Garza (whose the only guy I would expect to finish the season with a sub 4 era)



    I'm telling you guys, fade this team until Vegas adjusts for how awful they are. They'll lose 65-70% of their road games this year

  23. #23
    HoulihansTX
    Bowl $ea$on
    HoulihansTX's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-11-09
    Posts: 30,566
    Betpoints: 295

    Quote Originally Posted by Squirrel Kokomo View Post
    if you could not reasonably estimate all of those percentages yourself you should not be gambling.
    Matheticians use charts, and converters themselves. There is no need to memorize something that can be easily accessed.

  24. #24
    BettingWizard
    BettingWizard's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-09
    Posts: 6,522
    Betpoints: 102

    your flaw is that you act like there are never any teams that stink in the first half in the season, and then turn it around the last couple months.

    there are just as many teams that do this compared to teams who stink the whole year


    people who thought the angels sucked 3 weeks ago, and faded every game, are in the poorhouse.

  25. #25
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by BettingWizard View Post
    your flaw is that you act like there are never any teams that stink in the first half in the season, and then turn it around the last couple months.

    there are just as many teams that do this compared to teams who stink the whole year


    people who thought the angels sucked 3 weeks ago, and faded every game, are in the poorhouse.

    Well you gotta use common sense. No reason to think that Anaheim would be bad all year or that the Orioles would be good all year

Top