[gregm]

2011 baseball thread ( 244-187 +51.21)
Rangers to win world series +500 risk 3
Dodgers to win world series +1000 risk 1
Cardinals to win world series +1400 risk 1


Rough day yesterday, betting against the white sox lately is going to put you in the poor house. I am going to stay away from the sox/rays game, not enough data to work with looking at these pitchers and the white sox are the hottest team in baseball lately.

Cubs -119 risk 2.38

These are two sub .500 teams who have both been on some terrible runs, the Padres are 1-8 in their last nine and though the Cubs won the last two here, they were in a 12 game losing streak before this series. I dont ever feel confident wagering on the Cubs but Dempster has been phenomenal and the Cubs may finally get him a win here.

Bass is a young guy who has had to step in as a starter with the Padres rotation banged up with injuries, he has never started at wrigley and doesnt have alot of experience as a starter, going 2-4 this year in the starting role. He gave up 6 runs and 8 hits in his last outing against the Mets and he averaging giving up a hit in every inning this year he has pitched as a starter. The Padres have dismal numbers on the road, they are 5-18 away from petco and have only won one game of the last 9 on this road trip.

Wrigley is a tough place for a young guy trying to fill in as a starter, hopefully the Cubs can get Dempster some run support and a win here.

Blue Jays Orioles o8 -115 risk 1.15

Morrow has been all over the place in his last 3 games, he didnt get out of the first inning in his last outing against texas, giving up 6 runs in the 1st. Threw a 3 hit complete game against the Mets and gave up 6 runs in 5 inning right before that game facing the Rays. Toronto has been an over machine lately going over the total in 7 of its last 8 games and you have an ump behind the plate where the total has gone over 7-1-1 in his last 9 games and the total has gone over 37-13-1 in the last 51 games when Demuth has been calling balls and strikes.

With a pitcher as erratic as morrow, an ump with a small strike zone and two potent offenses, the over seems like its worth a punt here.

Marlins -1 -113 risk 1.13

Marlins o4.5 -105 risk 1.05

The Marlins looking for the sweep here and could pull within a half game of the nationals tonight, Johnson seems to be coming around but didnt look that sharp against the Giants giving up 9 hits in 5 innings. Wang coming off an injury has pitched all of 3 innings this year, and the marlins are one of the more profitable teams at home. The over has been profitable at home for Miami as well this year, the over hitting in 13 of their last 16 games but I am sticking with the tt here.

Rangers -1 -163

I would normally play the -1.5 like here with the Rangers but Beaven has excellent numbers against the Rangers and this one seems like the safer play.

A's/ Twins o4 (1st5) -135 risk 1.35

The A's have pretty dismal offensive numbers lately and the Twins are just a bad baseball team but with these two starters on the mound this total is worth a punt. Liriano is coming off a dismal start and is a really almost a rehab pitcher right now, Ross has an ERA over 7 on the road, the over is 8-3 in the last 11 Minnesota games and you have an ump with a small strike zone. Hopefully one of these pitchers implodes, its doubtful the A's will get this number solely on their offensive prowess.

NHL Kings -110 risk 1.10

[gregm]

Braves/Cardinals u4.5 (first 5) -105 risk 1.05

Braves -115 risk 1.15 Maybe the braves hitting woes have come to an end. I havent seen it on rotoworld or anywhere else but read Beltran may have the night off. Either way I like the under here the first 5 and the Braves, hopefully Hudson and Lohse can keep these offenses shut down. Freeman is back tonight for the Braves.

Sports options saying Beltran has the night off, check and make sure before game time

Rangers/Heat parlay NBA -123 risk 3.69 Rotoworld reporting Ichiro out for seattle tonight . Holland has only had one bad start in his last 5 and Beavan has put up good numbers for seattle but missing Ichiro isnt going to help that woeful Seattle offense.

Rangers -1.5 -110 risk 1.10

Dodgers/Brewers u3 1st5 -125 risk 1.25

Phillies -1 -115 risk 1.15

Red Sox tt o4.5 -110 risk 1.10

Red sox -1 +108 risk 2

wnba lynx -11 -120 risk 2.40